Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[krazen1211]

The Democrats currently have a handful of extra seats due to malapportionment. They will lose them next cycle.

[krazen1211]

Which Allegheny Senate Democrat is out of a seat under the latest map? I presume Costa survives.

[krazen1211]

Which Allegheny Senate Democrat is out of a seat under the latest map? I presume Costa survives.

I was pretty sure that the map passed was going to eliminate the seat of the Republican who had to resign and go to jail.

Technically.

http://senatorpileggi.com/PDF/redistricting/060812/FinalSenate2012MapWithZooms.pdf


Looks like they renumbered 40 to 38, and pushed 40 east. 15 and 37 will likely go back to the GOP next election as both acquired new GOP territory.

[krazen1211]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html#more

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Question: are Pennsylvania voters tiring of Tea Party pols? Sure, Republicans won the majority of House seats from Pennsylvania in 2012, but only because of gerrymandering that concentrated D voters in a few ultra-safe seats and left the rest of the state full of R+5 districts.

Tom Corbett cannot gerrymander himself out of the consequences of unpopularity. He is a Hard Right pol in a moderate state.

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He would have to win over the doubters to have a chance. He will need miracles to win re-election 22 months from now. That 2014 will be a midterm election might help -- but not enough. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_107.pdf

 

Actually the current PA legislature was elected with the heavily Democrat favored lines that gave Democrats extra seats in Allegheny County that they should not have.

[krazen1211]

Corbett is finished. It's a shame, but he should just bow out gracefully.

[krazen1211]

Why is Corbett unpopular?  Usually, PA gives incumbent governors a second term.

He's not a skilled politician. It took this long to get liquor privatization on the agenda.

[krazen1211]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html#more

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Question: are Pennsylvania voters tiring of Tea Party pols? Sure, Republicans won the majority of House seats from Pennsylvania in 2012, but only because of gerrymandering that concentrated D voters in a few ultra-safe seats and left the rest of the state full of R+5 districts.

Tom Corbett cannot gerrymander himself out of the consequences of unpopularity. He is a Hard Right pol in a moderate state.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He would have to win over the doubters to have a chance. He will need miracles to win re-election 22 months from now. That 2014 will be a midterm election might help -- but not enough. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_107.pdf

 

Actually the current PA legislature was elected with the heavily Democrat favored lines that gave Democrats extra seats in Allegheny County that they should not have.

You missed the point on being unable to gerrymander his way out of political trouble in 2014. Gubernatorial elections are by straight popular vote in Pennsylvania as elsewhere. Republicans ran stealth candidates with big money behind them, and those candidates are not gaining popular support, but that is a very different story.

The Pennsylvania House of Representatives, which is what I presumed you meant when you said 'House' above, has 109 Republicans and 93 Democrats.

The Pennsylvania House of Representatives was not elected by a Republican gerrymandered map, but rather than gives Democrats a massive bonus by not being compliant with 1M1V.

[krazen1211]

“She’s 80% of the way in,” said Marcel Groen, the chair of the Democratic party in Schwartz’s home county. He’s one of the most influential party leaders in PA.

http://www.politicspa.com/exclusiv-after-dga-poll-schwartz-80-in-for-gov/45970/

God help us. Never thought I'd see this.

A PA-13 primary will be interesting. Do you think anyone beats Mike Stack?

Bob Brady's Congressional map is clearly designed to give Philadelphia 3 districts rather than 2.

[krazen1211]

http://www.abc27.com/story/21216936/longtime-rendell-adviser-david-cohen-backs-corbett

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) - Republican Gov. Tom Corbett has picked up an influential supporter with close ties to his Democratic predecessor in his expected bid for a second term.

David Cohen, executive vice president of Comcast Corp. and longtime political adviser to former Gov. Ed Rendell, confirmed Friday that he's supporting Corbett's re-election.

[krazen1211]

Sestak is grumbling about Governor again.

Of course, the 2 SEPA candidates probably knock each other out.

[krazen1211]

Two? It could be three. McCord is a frontrunner, too, and is from Montco.

If its 3, some Western PA Democrat will sweep in and win the primary.

[krazen1211]

http://articles.philly.com/2013-02-25/news/37271768_1_stack-58th-ward-democratic-leader

Stack, 49, is betting the voters of Pennsylvania are ready for a machine politician from the city much of the state loves to hate. He is Democratic leader of the 58th Ward, son of a beloved ward leader, and grandson of a New Deal congressman (a sponsor of the first federal minimum wage, 25 cents an hour).

But the Northeast is more like Pittsburgh or Scranton than Center City, Stack argues. And though he has supported her, he thinks Rep. Allyson Schwartz of Montgomery County is too liberal to win statewide.

"She's done a great job in Congress and is on the fast track to leadership," Stack said Friday in an interview at the Tiffany Diner on Roosevelt Boulevard. "I think Allyson can best serve Pennsylvania in Washington."

[krazen1211]

Quinnipiac's findings...

53% of registered voters oppose Corbett's re-election. Approval rating at 39%/disapprove at 49%.

59% of Republicans say he deserves another term but 33% say he does not. He trails all Dems except Knox, Wolf and McCord (surprising) but almost all head-to-head match ups are within three points.

In other news, Casey has a 48%-34% approval rating. Toomey is at 43%-32%.

His numbers have cratered in the T, where he won 70-30 or so in 2010. Breaking even in SEPA and 22% in Philadelphia are actually not bad.

[krazen1211]

Aside from the Schwartz-McCord drama, former Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf has jumped in and is pledging to spend $10 million. That will certainly buy some attention for the least known candidate.

I see no path for a Democrat from York County to win the nomination.