Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[TX Conservative Dem]

For Corbett to perform better in the African American community in 2014, he's going to need between 16-25 percent of Blacks. In 2010, he only got 8 percent of the African American vote.

If I was Corbett, I'd follow Chris Christie's 2013 model and go into both African American and Latino communities like NOW.

Speaking of minority voting support, how much of the African American vote did then-Gov. Tom Ridge (R) get in 1994 and 1998 ?

[IceSpear]

I liked this comment on PPP's PA poll:

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[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

For Corbett to perform better in the African American community in 2014, he's going to need between 16-25 percent of Blacks. In 2010, he only got 8 percent of the African American vote.

If I was Corbett, I'd follow Chris Christie's 2013 model and go into both African American and Latino communities like NOW.

Speaking of minority voting support, how much of the African American vote did then-Gov. Tom Ridge (R) get in 1994 and 1998 ?

Good question. Unfortunately, Tom Corbett isn't Tom Ridge or Chris Christie, so it's very unlikely.

Also, very good to see Hanger climbing up in the polls.

[J. J.]

One of Corbett's major problems is that he has not accomplished much.

[Keystone Phil]

I liked this comment on PPP's PA poll:

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...except people have been saying that about Corbett for at least a year now so...

[Badger]

I liked this comment on PPP's PA poll:

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...except people have been saying that about Corbett for at least a year now so...

Well, Corbett's been politically toxic for at least a year now.

[Keystone Phil]

There's a significant segment that has been critiquing him for at least that period of time and weren't simply saying he wasn't conservative enough as a talking point. They're really battled him on a number of issues before the legislature. Also keep in mind that a third of Republicans didn't vote for him in the 2010 primary.

[Badger]

There's a significant segment that has been critiquing him for at least that period of time and weren't simply saying he wasn't conservative enough as a talking point. They're really battled him on a number of issues before the legislature. Also keep in mind that a third of Republicans didn't vote for him in the 2010 primary.

Fair enough, but not being conservative enough is hardly why he's currently less popular than headlice, or why his re-election chances are so slim.

On a related note, Phil, can you explain to me again why Corbett doesn't have a serious primary challenger again? I've seen the polls showing him leading Meehan, Dent, Fitzgerald, etc., but not by that much. When only 42% of Republican voters want him to be their nominee for gov (granted, against that perinially overpolling candidate, "someone else"), you'd think there'd be sufficient grass roots AND establishment support to dump him (and possibly save the GOP's bacon in November by doing so).

So what gives? Is it truly a case of "the devil you know" mentality dominating the PA GOP here?

[Keystone Phil]

On a related note, Phil, can you explain to me again why Corbett doesn't have a serious primary challenger again? I've seen the polls showing him leading Meehan, Dent, Fitzgerald, etc., but not by that much. When only 42% of Republican voters want him to be their nominee for gov (granted, against that perinially overpolling candidate, "someone else"), you'd think there'd be sufficient grass roots AND establishment support to dump him (and possibly save the GOP's bacon in November by doing so).

Governors are very powerful in Pennsylvania and the Governor is the de facto head of his or her party in almost all states. Should tell you what you need to know.

[J. J.]

On a related note, Phil, can you explain to me again why Corbett doesn't have a serious primary challenger again? I've seen the polls showing him leading Meehan, Dent, Fitzgerald, etc., but not by that much. When only 42% of Republican voters want him to be their nominee for gov (granted, against that perinially overpolling candidate, "someone else"), you'd think there'd be sufficient grass roots AND establishment support to dump him (and possibly save the GOP's bacon in November by doing so).

Governors are very powerful in Pennsylvania and the Governor is the de facto head of his or her party in almost all states. Should tell you what you need to know.

Another factor is that it takes a huge amount of money to run in PA.  I would question if these guys have the war chest to run.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett is being challenges for the nomination by Bob Guzzardi - a longtime activist, businessman/attorney and major donor to grassroots conservative causes over the years - http://www.politicspa.com/conservative-activist-mounts-primary-challenge-to-corbett/53515/

Guzzardi is from Montco. He acknowledges he won't win but wants to send a message. Corbett's support for the transportation bill is what pushed Guzzardi into the race.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Corbett is being challenges for the nomination by Bob Guzzardi - a longtime activist, businessman/attorney and major donor to grassroots conservative causes over the years - http://www.politicspa.com/conservative-activist-mounts-primary-challenge-to-corbett/53515/

Guzzardi is from Montco. He acknowledges he won't win but wants to send a message. Corbett's support for the transportation bill is what pushed Guzzardi into the race.

Wouldn't be surprised if he won the nomination. Who is going to show up at the polls to vote for Corbett in the primary?

He'll lose the general, of course, but so would Corbett.

[IceSpear]

It would be hilarious if Corbett lost the primary to a some dude.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Corbett is being challenges for the nomination by Bob Guzzardi - a longtime activist, businessman/attorney and major donor to grassroots conservative causes over the years - http://www.politicspa.com/conservative-activist-mounts-primary-challenge-to-corbett/53515/

Guzzardi is from Montco. He acknowledges he won't win but wants to send a message. Corbett's support for the transportation bill is what pushed Guzzardi into the race.

Endorsed!

[Badger]

So what % would you guess Guzzardi will likely get, Phil?

Any chance you'll vote for him?

[Keystone Phil]

I think he stands a good chance at getting a significant percent just based on the protest vote. It's worth noting that Guzzardi has a lot of money but we'll see if he sticks with this.

[Keystone Phil]

Local 98 (the electricians union) endorsed and donated $100,000 to Schwartz. Huge primary endorsement.

[RedSLC]

Just out of curiousity, have there been any significant developments in the Lt. Gov. primary?

[henster]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

[IceSpear]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

It will be much more of an issue in a state race especially when Schwartz got her start in politics by opening an abortion clinic and refusing to say whether or not she referred women to "Doctor" Gosnell's house of horrors. That's a little more than being just "strongly Pro Choice."

[Miles]

A bit down the road, but Kane is looking at the 2016 Senate race.

[windjammer]

A bit down the road, but Kane is looking at the 2016 Senate race.

Yeah!!!!! Democrats need more women!

[IceSpear]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

It will be much more of an issue in a state race especially when Schwartz got her start in politics by opening an abortion clinic and refusing to say whether or not she referred women to "Doctor" Gosnell's house of horrors. That's a little more than being just "strongly Pro Choice."

I still remember when Obama's state senate vote on the partial birth abortion bill was supposed to cause his landslide defeat to McCain.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz is a bad fit statewide for PA (heading an abortion clinic really?). I don't know Rob McCord why hasn't caught on yet, he's the most electable and viable candidate out of the bunch. He has business experience, has been elected statewide twice, and has a African-American wife.

Because being strongly pro-choice is a disqualifier in PA. Just ask Obama's 11 and 5 point wins, respectively.

It will be much more of an issue in a state race especially when Schwartz got her start in politics by opening an abortion clinic and refusing to say whether or not she referred women to "Doctor" Gosnell's house of horrors. That's a little more than being just "strongly Pro Choice."

I still remember when Obama's state senate vote on the partial birth abortion bill was supposed to cause his landslide defeat to McCain.

Ok, maybe you're still not getting the difference a) between starting an abortion clinic and possibly recommending women to Kermit Gosnell and voting against a partial birth ban and b) the importance of abortion in state elections compared to Presidential elections. And no one said Obama's State Senate vote on that or any other issue was going to trigger a landslide loss for him. Tone down the hyperbole and stop comparing apples and oranges.