Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[pbrower2a]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html#more

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Question: are Pennsylvania voters tiring of Tea Party pols? Sure, Republicans won the majority of House seats from Pennsylvania in 2012, but only because of gerrymandering that concentrated D voters in a few ultra-safe seats and left the rest of the state full of R+5 districts.

Tom Corbett cannot gerrymander himself out of the consequences of unpopularity. He is a Hard Right pol in a moderate state.

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He would have to win over the doubters to have a chance. He will need miracles to win re-election 22 months from now. That 2014 will be a midterm election might help -- but not enough. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_107.pdf

 

[dudeabides]

Bob Casey Jr. is likely to run for Governor at some point, it's in his DNA. He would crush Corbett. I dislike Corbett, so I hope someone challenges him in the GOP primary.

[krazen1211]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html#more

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Question: are Pennsylvania voters tiring of Tea Party pols? Sure, Republicans won the majority of House seats from Pennsylvania in 2012, but only because of gerrymandering that concentrated D voters in a few ultra-safe seats and left the rest of the state full of R+5 districts.

Tom Corbett cannot gerrymander himself out of the consequences of unpopularity. He is a Hard Right pol in a moderate state.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He would have to win over the doubters to have a chance. He will need miracles to win re-election 22 months from now. That 2014 will be a midterm election might help -- but not enough. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_107.pdf

 

Actually the current PA legislature was elected with the heavily Democrat favored lines that gave Democrats extra seats in Allegheny County that they should not have.

[Mr. Morden]

In a prelude to a discussion about the lawsuit against the NCAA, ESPN columnist Gregg Easterbrook goes after Corbett on Penn State scandal:

http://espn.go.com/espn/playbook/story/_/id/8822435/russell-wilson-nfl-best-young-quarterback#pennstate

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[Keystone Phil]

I love the trap pbrower walked into, claiming the GOP wins in the legislature in 2012 were because of the gerrymandering. We maintained the margin we achieved in 2010 under the Dem-favored map.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett leads Castor 55% to 11% but only 45% of Republicans want Corbett as the nominee - http://www.politicspa.com/ppp-poll-corbett-55-castor-11-in-gop-primary/45347/

Only 54% of Republicans approve of Corbett's job performance. Corbett's highest numbers are with conservative and very conservative Republicans (and lowest with moderate to liberal Republicans) but that doesn't catch the serious anger the grassroots conservative activists feel towards the Governor.

[Peter the Lefty]

Oh boy, I should be following this more.  Of the potential or declared candidates, are there any that stand out as genuine progressives?

[Keystone Phil]

Oh boy, I should be following this more.  Of the potential or declared candidates, are there any that stand out as genuine progressives?

Sestak is the closest. Hanger is, too, but he isn't a top candidate.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The PA Democratic party is generally fairly moderate compared to other state parties, and usually focuses on "bread and butter" issues. Sestak is your best bet for a "progressive" who can actually win the primary and the general.

[Peter the Lefty]

Ah god.  Sestak is a prick.  I never understood why the PA Democratic Party is so centrist.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ah god.  Sestak is a prick.  I never understood why the PA Democratic Party is so centrist.

It can be fairly liberal (in a populist sort of way) on economic issues. But the state party's traditional base (and a good chunk of its supporters even today) are culturally conservative white Catholics.

[Keystone Phil]

Ah god.  Sestak is a prick.  I never understood why the PA Democratic Party is so centrist.

It can be fairly liberal (in a populist sort of way) on economic issues. But the state party's traditional base (and a good chunk of its supporters even today) are culturally conservative white Catholics.

Nailed it.

[Keystone Phil]

Latest Quinnipiac...

Corbett disapproval at 42%. Approval at 36%. 51% think he doesn't deserve re-election (31% believe he does). Only 49% of Republicans would support him for another term. That's a huge problem. Look for Castor to get a lot more attention now.

[krazen1211]

Corbett is finished. It's a shame, but he should just bow out gracefully.

[DemPGH]

It will be a travesty if the state party cannot get it together just enough to oust Corbett. Thing is, Rendell isn't exactly popular either and went out with numbers that were just a bit better than Corbett's. I'm at this time hoping for Sestak, but admittedly I don't know a lot of them.

Corbett is unpopular amongst non Tea Party GOPers (and of course everyone else) for trying to completely decimate the university system's budget. I mean decimate it, destroy it, evaporate it. Administrators in the system have said that they will not be able to function if Corbett were to get all the cuts he wanted. But Corbett probably did not / does not really want all of them because what the Right wing does when it negotiates is it starts so extremely far out in right field that with modest concessions from the Left, the Right still wins by a lot.

Corbett is also generally unpopular, as I see it from here, for trying to privatize the turnpikes, the lottery, and the liquor stores - at least there's been a lot of opposition, but his cuts to education and the university system are far and away hurting him the worst.

In addition to what Snowstalker said about the PA Dem party, Pennsylvania has vast numbers of NRA members in the "Pennsylbama" or "Pennsyltucky" region - the woods, basically. So, the Dem party here is a bit milquetoast compared to other states. I would have switched to Green were it not for the primaries, in which I do vote, and that's for national reasons mainly.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett also has problems with Tea Party activists. Don't discount that.

[Keystone Phil]

Corbett's son-in-law, a Philly narcotics officers, is under investigation by the FBI and IA.

[Keystone Phil]

Franklin & Marshall does a story about how Corbett's ratings are the worst in the history of their poll. Castor shares the story on Facebook with the comment, "Anyone else getting a bad feeling about this?"

Bruce sure does have a lot of fun with this!

[Torie]

Why is Corbett unpopular?  Usually, PA gives incumbent governors a second term.

[Keystone Phil]

Why is Corbett unpopular?  Usually, PA gives incumbent governors a second term.

He's never been beloved by the base. He didn't help matters by being very forcefully in favor of a U.S. Senate candidate last year that the base was skeptical of (said candidate went on to lose the primary. Badly). He isn't seen as a particularly inspiring or charismatic leader. His cuts to education and social services have infuriated the left.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html#more

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Question: are Pennsylvania voters tiring of Tea Party pols? Sure, Republicans won the majority of House seats from Pennsylvania in 2012, but only because of gerrymandering that concentrated D voters in a few ultra-safe seats and left the rest of the state full of R+5 districts.

Tom Corbett cannot gerrymander himself out of the consequences of unpopularity. He is a Hard Right pol in a moderate state.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He would have to win over the doubters to have a chance. He will need miracles to win re-election 22 months from now. That 2014 will be a midterm election might help -- but not enough. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_107.pdf

 

Actually the current PA legislature was elected with the heavily Democrat favored lines that gave Democrats extra seats in Allegheny County that they should not have.

You missed the point on being unable to gerrymander his way out of political trouble in 2014. Gubernatorial elections are by straight popular vote in Pennsylvania as elsewhere. Republicans ran stealth candidates with big money behind them, and those candidates are not gaining popular support, but that is a very different story.

...A year to nine months before a re-election campaign, an incumbent Senator or Governor needs a 44% approval rating to have a roughly 50% chance of winning re-election. The chance of being re-elected approaches 100% with an approval of 50% and approaches 0% with an approval rating near 40%. Below a 40% approval rating most incumbents either choose not to run or lose to primary challenges.

Governor Corbett could win re-election, but if his standing with voters does not improve within a year he will almost certainly (97% or more) be a political goner.  

[krazen1211]

Why is Corbett unpopular?  Usually, PA gives incumbent governors a second term.

He's not a skilled politician. It took this long to get liquor privatization on the agenda.

[krazen1211]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/voters-support-corbett-ncaa-lawsuit-but-down-on-him-overall.html#more

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Question: are Pennsylvania voters tiring of Tea Party pols? Sure, Republicans won the majority of House seats from Pennsylvania in 2012, but only because of gerrymandering that concentrated D voters in a few ultra-safe seats and left the rest of the state full of R+5 districts.

Tom Corbett cannot gerrymander himself out of the consequences of unpopularity. He is a Hard Right pol in a moderate state.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He would have to win over the doubters to have a chance. He will need miracles to win re-election 22 months from now. That 2014 will be a midterm election might help -- but not enough. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_107.pdf

 

Actually the current PA legislature was elected with the heavily Democrat favored lines that gave Democrats extra seats in Allegheny County that they should not have.

You missed the point on being unable to gerrymander his way out of political trouble in 2014. Gubernatorial elections are by straight popular vote in Pennsylvania as elsewhere. Republicans ran stealth candidates with big money behind them, and those candidates are not gaining popular support, but that is a very different story.

The Pennsylvania House of Representatives, which is what I presumed you meant when you said 'House' above, has 109 Republicans and 93 Democrats.

The Pennsylvania House of Representatives was not elected by a Republican gerrymandered map, but rather than gives Democrats a massive bonus by not being compliant with 1M1V.

[Keystone Phil]

A rare event: both state committees are holding their winter meetings this weekend in Harrisburg.

I'm getting word that McCord is telling people he's in and Schwartz is passing out stickers with her logo but no office. I'm guessing she's just teasing everyone.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Still waiting on Sestak, though if necessary I'll support anyone who isn't Allyson Schwartz in the primary.