Wisconsin Megathread

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It would be interesting to see Western Counties Liberal v. Obama 2012 numbers. It's vital for Dem futures in Wisconsin to crush it in the Driftless area and not be totally slaughtered in the Twin Cities suburbs.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Someone was asking about the Minneapolis burbs.

Polk county went from 61-33 Trump to 51-49 Screnock
Saint Croix went from 55-37 Trump to 52-48 Liberals.
Pierce went from 53-39 Trump to 55-45 Liberals.
Dunn went from 52-41 Trump to 57-43 Liberals.

 

What the hell is going on in St. Croix county and surrounding areas? The special election was a huge trend left and now tonight. This place region withstood the Obama Badger state sweep of '08. Hudson just doesn't seem like a place that would be open to voting Dem downballot. It's not known for manufacturing tendencies, wealthy champagne liberalism, and it's mostly white flight from the Twin Cities.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I assume the problems in Milwaukee would be fixed by black turnout during the regular election, however the numbers in Kenosha and Racine counties are outright brutal for the Dems.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Here is what the combo map looks like now. I'm going to bed, hopefully we're at 100% by the time I wake up.

Great map. Eyeballing it, I think Liberals might have won Duffy's district and (of course the Madison/Milwaukee/Driftless triad), but I'm not totally sure. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

So, based on these results, can we all finally agree that Scott Walker is finished?

Nah, I don’t see any Dem candidate inspiring the Driftless area while at the same time reducing losses in Walker’s WOW base.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

So, based on these results, can we all finally agree that Scott Walker is finished?

Nah, I don’t see any Dem candidate inspiring the Driftless area while at the same time reducing losses in Walker’s WOW base.

Why would Burns/Dallet over perform in the Driftless but the governors candidates would not?

Due to the nature of the race, the Liberals were able to blur party lines in a way a Gubernatorial candidate practically can’t.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Wisconsin has a mixed to negative opinion on the Foxconn deal:

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Basically WOW v. everyone else. Looks like the pre-2016 Dem coalition being reassembled right there.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Horrid numbers for the Dems in this poll. Walker treading even with all his struggles means he can only improve in his numbers from here.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Can WI democrats flip WI House and WI senate?

Severely unlikely, as they are packed in Dane County and Milwaukee, and seem to have cratered in the Driftless Area due to Clintonian/Sunbelt Billionaire identity politics.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Can WI democrats flip WI House and WI senate?

Severely unlikely, as they are packed in Dane County and Milwaukee, and seem to have cratered in the Driftless Area due to Clintonian/Sunbelt Billionaire identity politics.

Totally ignoring Supreme court/special results I see.

A "quasi-nonpartisan" Supreme Court race and local races don't change the fact that Walker's approval actually took a bounce early this year and as much as people hate him, they're not that motivated to turn him away. (Remember the stupidity that was the recall?)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Meet Caleb Frostman, Democratic candidate for SD-01

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Hope he does well. I want to see more of his types running everywhere in the Midwest, and less bland Ossoff clones.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Walker is having a hissy fit on twitter:

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/979358767061045248

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/979360053055672320

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/979362257158201344

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/979363907566538752

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/979365203061149698

Looks like someone is banking his reelection on this.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It doesn't matter what's going on with Dane. As history has shown, it's all in the immense margins the conservatives have in WoW. Trump isn't on the ballot and they will go back to their landslide support for the GOP.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Remember, this is a nonpartisan election, Dallet would have to win by 10% for this to mean anything regarding November.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Almost all of Waukesha county in: http://electionresults.waukeshacounty.gov/contests.aspx

Screnock leading 65-35 and netting 20,000 votes.

Improving on Trump's margin by 4.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Uh-oh. Dallet only leading 71-29 in Dane County: https://elections.countyofdane.com/electiondetail.aspx

only 8% in. But I'm not sure that's a good enough margin for her.

Brutal numbers. She's only replicating Hillary here. Not good news.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

Republicans haven’t been able to beat Trumps margins in suburban countries in almost any election since 2016. So I am not sure why that is likely to change with Walker.

First of all, he’s the incumbent and has had a long history of contrasting himself against the crime rates and ghettoes of Milwaukee as well as union workers in order to win over the suburbs. Second of all, Dems couldn’t even recall him during the nadir of his governorship. Third, thanks to the alt-right and Trump, Walker now looks more moderate.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I understand the Dane numbers, but what is going on in the 8th? It doesn't seem like #Resistance territory to me. It's not a particularly urban/suburban district either. Any Wisconsin expert care to weigh in?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Nominating someone heavily tied to the crime-infested "Chicago-lite" city of Milwaukee would be the Dems shooting themselves on the foot.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

WI-01 is Foxconn country. National politics or whatever Ryan is up to has no bearing here. Likely Walker.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Not comparable because a lot of these GOP seats (in the Assembly as well as the Senate) are held by incumbents, who will have an easier time holding on to their seats than Screnock winning an open one. This won't be the year to flip the trifecta. Also, with Walker on the top of the ballot, a lot of suburbanite conservative folks (especially in the South-East corner of the stater) who otherwise won't turn out, will. Assembly and Senate are both Likely R.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I was responding to the thought of flipping to a D trifecta as a whole...and gave reasons as to why Walker was winning Gov (his strength in the South East). That seemed to have been confused by people with my reasoning as to why Dems cannot win the gerrymandered legislature.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Leave it to the Dems to shrink their tent by relying on Milwaukee to save the day. No wonder they are at a risk of turning Wisconsin to the next West Virginia.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Leave it to the Dems to shrink their tent by relying on Milwaukee to save the day. No wonder they are at a risk of turning Wisconsin to the next West Virginia.

Lol.

Also, theoretically we could rely on the ever-growing Dane County to dominate the whole state, but fortunately WI Dems have been doing well in rural areas as well.

If Milwaukee voted at the same level as Dane they could probably never have to rely on the rest of the state for anything.

For every 1 lost in the Driftless, right? I don’t subscribe to the Chuck Schumer “winning” philosophy.