Though, the GOP curently has like a 1% advantage in voter Registration and the "active" label can probably be attributed to the Caucuses, right?
What were the 2010 exit polls like for Colorado? Would there be any reason why Democrats would do worse in Colorado than they did in 2010?
The problem with the whole "Colorado Democrats win in 2010" narrative is that it's false. Republicans took every single statewide office with the exception of the Senate and gubernatorial races, where the Senate Democratic candidate got maybe 48% and the supposedly "popular" Denver Democratic mayor running for governor got 51%. Not remarkable. But it's even less remarkable when you consider the fact that there was essentially no credible Republican candidate, other than a really unpopular one who ran on the Constitution Party ticket. And the "popular" Denver mayor only got 51%. 2010 was a great year for Republicans nationwide due to depressed turnout of voters. Such happens in off-year elections when the electorate becomes richer, whiter, and more Protestant. Add to that that the Hard Right lavished the political process with Orwellian propaganda emanating from every radio, billboard, and TV set on behalf of Tea Party pols, and Americans voted for a bunch of politicians who stand for the interests that usually prove the core support of fascist movements. Colorado Democrats were lucky. The Republican candidates for US Senate and the Governorship were from the lunatic fringe.
Much as elsewhere in America in 2010. Now the right-wingers face the acid test: have they done a good job by the standards of an electorate likely to be much more like that of 2008 than like that of 2010? To be sure, the Orwellian propaganda (basically, "For your well-being, make sure to vote for those who will degrade your life") will still be out -- but for the political dregs of the dreadful beverage that the Tea Party Cult and such types as Rove and Norquist have foisted upon us.
America on the whole is extremely unhappy with Congress even to the extent that the last poll for the approval rating of "Your Congressional Representative" was at 41%. On the average, political incumbents in Senatorial and Gubernatorial offices whose approval rating is 44% have a 50-50 chance of re-election, and the chance of re-election drops rapidly to near zero for those whose ratings are below that. To be sure, those Representatives who are good cultural matches for their districts -- the ones who win 60% or more of the vote in their districts consistently -- may have stronger approvals and win. But the rest? A hint: the casino industry makes its money off people betting against the Law of Large Numbers.
Ratings for Republicans are lower than are those for Democrats. Such bodes ill for the current majority.
If your Colorado Rockies had had Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander you might be celebrating a World's Championship.
Colorado has been drifting D due to demographic change. The fast-growing Hispanic sector of the electorate distrusts the Republican Hard Right, and such is so with the Hispanic middle class that has no use for superstitions that the GOP promotes in education and for the 'take an axe to the schools' attitude. If poor white people are infamously anti-intellectual, poor Hispanics aren't. Some people know that the quality of schooling makes the difference between poverty and plenty for their kids. Really, that is the difference between Colorado and Arkansas.
2010 is the high-water mark for the Tea Party Cult. Americans are onto it. I expect lots of freshman Republican Reps to go down to defeat in November.
This election is far from sealed. The point is that President Obama doesn't have to defend his political back in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan as Gore and Kerry did. Such means that the President can operate with much the same strategy (Beat the Cheat) as in 2008 and win much the same way in 2012 as in 2008. Colorado is drifting D, and Mitt Romney will have a difficult time winning it. Likewise Virginia. Ohio will be a tough win for Romney because the Obama campaign will be hitting Romney on the bailout. Florida has a Republican Governor who is so unpopular that he must cheat to win.
The electoral college system now favors President Obama because he is winning by decisive (if smaller) margins than in the states in which he is losing badly.
