GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

I mean, I know, that early voting doesn't mean a lot of things but, any news about it? Is it favoring Ossoff or Handel?

There's no way to know, of course.  Based on past primary participation (which may indicate a likely preference in this election but does NOT guarantee it), the D/R split is much more D than the Nov 2016 EV at this point.  This could be interpreted as good for Ossoff.  But it's more R than the first round of the primary; this could be interpreted as good for Handel.  Or it might just mean that R's are making their minds up more quickly this round, since they don't have a plethora of candidates to choose from.  Or, since turnout at this point is very high, it could just mean that the voters are tired of the constant attention and just want to get their votes out of the way.  There's no guarantee that it will continue at this pace.  I'm sure there are a ton of other possible interpretations.

In short: don't read too much into EV.  We should all have learned that lesson after November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GOP Super PAC ad ties Ossoff to Kathy Griffin

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/06/01/gop-super-pac-tries-to-tie-georgia-democrat-to-kathy-griffin/?utm_term=.ac48f28197e5

Ossoff's response:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

This is probably a stupid question, but why is the early vote in GA-06 generally Republican-leaning? Didn't Ossoff win it in a landslide in April?

Remember that all that's being measured is which party's primary the voter last voted in.  Georgia has open primaries and no party registration; we choose a party primary ballot at the time we go to the polls.   And for many local races in R-leaning areas, the R primary effectively decides the outcome, because the Democrat has zero chance in the general election.  In many cases, there's no Democratic candidate at all.  As such, many voters vote in R primaries but don't necessarily vote for the R in the general election (I've done this several times).

[GeorgiaModerate]

New WSB poll:

Ossoff 49.1
Handel 47.6

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/01/wsb-poll-ossoff-and-handel-locked-in-a-georgia-6th-nail-biter/

[GeorgiaModerate]

New WSB poll:

Ossoff 49.1
Handel 47.6

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/01/wsb-poll-ossoff-and-handel-locked-in-a-georgia-6th-nail-biter/

Last poll from them Handel up 3 so maybe there is a bit of momentum. I'd feel more confident if Ossoff was consistently posting above 50% considering which way undecideds always go in Southern states.

Also, there's a huge age gap here:

If I'm Ossoff, I have to like the party splits.  He's getting 14% of R's while only losing 7% of D's, and winning large majorities of Independents and Others.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Unsurprisingly, Ossoff and Handel are on opposite sides regarding the Paris climate agreement withdrawal.

Handel:

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Ossoff:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Strong numbers from DeKalb in the early voting so far: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/02/democrat-heavy-dekalb-punches-above-weight-in-early-sixth-district-voting/

Total: 33,957
Cobb: 6,709 (20%)
DeKalb: 9,991 (29%)
Fulton: 16,897 (50%)

The distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately:

Cobb: 29%
DeKalb: 23%
Fulton: 48%

And in the April 18 primary, the vote distribution was:

Cobb: 32%
DeKalb: 23%
Fulton: 46%

As a reminder, Cobb is the most Republican of the three, DeKalb the most Democratic.  Obviously, turnout in DeKalb is strong so far (with the important caveat that it's still very early).  Todd Rehm, a Republican consultant in Georgia, characterized the numbers so far as "alarming".

[GeorgiaModerate]

The first Ossoff-Handel debate is Tuesday night from 8pm-9pm EDT, and will be live streamed on WSB's website and Facebook page.  Links are in this article: http://www.wftv.com/news/trending-now/karen-handel-jon-ossoff-to-debate-live-on-wsbtv/528693479

ETA: originally had the wrong date.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Strong numbers from DeKalb in the early voting so far: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/02/democrat-heavy-dekalb-punches-above-weight-in-early-sixth-district-voting/

Total: 33,957
Cobb: 6,709 (20%)
DeKalb: 9,991 (29%)
Fulton: 16,897 (50%)

The distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately:

Cobb: 29%
DeKalb: 23%
Fulton: 48%

And in the April 18 primary, the vote distribution was:

Cobb: 32%
DeKalb: 23%
Fulton: 46%

As a reminder, Cobb is the most Republican of the three, DeKalb the most Democratic.  Obviously, turnout in DeKalb is strong so far (with the important caveat that it's still very early).  Todd Rehm, a Republican consultant in Georgia, characterized the numbers so far as "alarming".

Early vote (mail and in-person) updated through Friday, June 2:

Cobb: 7997 (19.2%)
DeKalb: 11929 (28.7%)
Fulton: 21642 (52.1%)
Total: 41568

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why participate in a nationally televised debate when the only people you need to convince are concentrated in a very specific area? Why waste time preparing for and going to said debate when you can have one more day of running what is widely reported to be a highly effective ground effort to mobilize voters? Why rule that a CNN debate which a pretty limited amount of people will watch anyways is more important than getting in ~20k unreturned absentee ballots and energizing the thousands of additional people who were just recently allowed to register and who certainly lean Dem?

This.  Ossoff is already going to participate in three debates on local media (two on TV, one on radio).   I think he may also be trying to minimize the "nationalization" of the race to avoid turning off local Republicans who might be potential crossover votes for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why participate in a nationally televised debate when the only people you need to convince are concentrated in a very specific area? Why waste time preparing for and going to said debate when you can have one more day of running what is widely reported to be a highly effective ground effort to mobilize voters? Why rule that a CNN debate which a pretty limited amount of people will watch anyways is more important than getting in ~20k unreturned absentee ballots and energizing the thousands of additional people who were just recently allowed to register and who certainly lean Dem?

Exactly.

And they are running idiotic ads here saying he will be a Congressmen for the people of San Francisco. The last thing he needs to do is be on a national platform giving that accusation more life.

Those "Eek! A DEMOCRAT!" ads are cringeworthy, and I really wonder about their effectiveness.  Any voter who views Pelosi as a villain is already unlikely to vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.  And for voters open to voting for a Democrat, I don't see this argument doing much to discourage them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The breakdown is apparently:
Cobb....10,058 18.3%
DeKalb.13,818 25.1%
Fulton...31,125 56.6%
That is big time trouble for Handel is Dekalb runs far ahead of Cobb

True, but keep in mind that Cobb has fewer EV locations open (I think it's C 2, D 5, F 6 at present).  Also, Fulton has one more day in the books; they were the only one to have EV last Saturday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

  Ok people put a fork in it, this election is done, Ossoff is going to win.  I say this because I got off the fence and bought some shares on predictit for Ossoff at 61%.  Just feel he has the momentum, the district is so much more Dem friendly than the KS and Mt seats which still showed a surge to Dems, he's got lots of money behind him etc.

Oh my goodness, now he's doomed. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just a reminder that the first debate is tonight from 8pm-9pm EDT.  Folks in the Atlanta area can watch on WSB (channel 2).  It's also being live streamed on WSB's website (http://www.wsbtv.com/live-breaking2) and Facebook page (https://www.facebook.com/wsbtv/).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anybody else watching the debate right now? It's starting.

I am.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Based off of the FB feedback Ossoff is doing good according to Ossoff fans and Handel is doing well according to Handel fan

I can see that.  Neither is doing spectacularly well or poorly so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think he did really well on Handel being a hypocrite on Syria strikes

Yeah, that was the best point scored so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Handel is doing better in this debate than I remember her doing in previous elections.  Ossoff is a bit better, though.  He seems to be a naturally gifted speaker.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow Handel is actually standing by the ACHA act that might kill her

Yes, and then she tried to say it doesn't hurt pre-existing condition coverage and in fact provides more coverage for it (a flat-out lie), and Ossoff called her on it.  She also tried to deny she was the mover behind defunding Planned Parenthood while at Komen, and he's hammering her on that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff is really good at thinking on his feet and responding.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Karen Handel is so obnoxious. I think I've heard Nancy Pelosi's name at least a dozen times.

And could she stop using "liberal" as an insult. You are supposed to represent all your voters lady. Name calling and divisiveness is not very becoming despite who the President is.

She said Pelosi again at the very moment I was reading your post!

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's halftime and I would say Ossoff is clearly ahead, although not overwhelmingly so.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good answer by Ossoff on taxes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Saying "I was one of hundreds of employees at Komen" to deflect on the PP defunding won't cut it.  She campaigned on doing that in 2014.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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