2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Oryxslayer]

The most WTF district is 17, which shows just how much the GOP now fear White Houston.


Also, is 31 majority Hispanic by population? Looks like it goes out of its way to grab all the oil and ranching counties in west Texas and the panhandle with significant, but nonvoting or GOP, Hispanic populations.

[Oryxslayer]

So it seems one Dem was drawn out?

Yeah the Tarrant one, but that seat was marginal anyway and surrounded by very red seats. notably the GOP tried something similar to this in 2010 on the congressional map, but were told that Tarrant needs to have some minority representation. Mind end up having to return that seat to the Dems as a new pack.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it normal for the population deviations to be so large?

Most legislatures have a +5% or 10% deviation allowed overall when measured between the most underpopulated and most overpopulated seats. This is meant to allow for neat lines, but a desperate partisan will overpack the oppositions seats and depopulate their seats. However its a obvious line of litigation, especially when it comes to minority seats, so this blatant deviation tactic is only used when necessary - such as when the NY GOP drew their 2010 senate plan to try and elect a Republican legislature in a Safe Blue state.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade.  

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.

Right now I'm thinking Fletcher's seat still exists, but she is drawn out as part of the semi-unintentional "no white dem electeds." A case of the white Libs going in one of the AA seats, the white Pubs going in a R seats, and then the reconfigured seat is built out of Fort Bend and Alief and is very diverse. Helps fortify 22 and whatever is goes on there.

[Oryxslayer]

Board of Education district proposal. Beto won a majority of seats under the current plan, so they needed to go a bit wild.

[Oryxslayer]

Partisan leans



Old map for comparison.

[Oryxslayer]

Both swing district dems get safe seats, though Fletcher is out likely through a primary to a minority candidate. Also new Austin seat OFC. New Districts 38 and 7 really should trade numbers, cause 38 is a clear successor, and it's probably why the GOP was pushing for Wesley Hunt to run again.

You can tell their desperate and recognize the state is falling, what with the narrow linkages needed to maximize packing and cracking potential. Things like 35 getting narrower between the cities, 10 squiggling around Austin, the alternating tendrils of 33 and 6, and whatever the hell 4 is trying to do.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, the Texas Pubs clearly did not take my advice, and yes, they should be sued, and then sued some more (probably for precisely the opposite reasons Gass has in mind but whatever). The below image has to be competitive with MD in insane erosity. I get that TX-33 was an attempt to do a crude Hispanic pack, but what is TX-04 all about?  

I guarantee that TX-04 was caused by van taylor of Plano wanting his seat to still be anchored by those SW Collin suburbs - even though they will be very blue by 2030 - while also wanting his seat to be safe. The end result is that messy arm.

[Oryxslayer]

Do you know who's favoured in the Austin Thunderdome for the new ultra blue district ?

Wouldn't it be Doggett's to lose?  That would open up his current seat, likely for a San Antonio Hispanic Dem. 

It's his choice. Doggett's a White Austin Dem, so he would better serve TX37 here, but TX35 has more of his present constituents. If he choses TX37 then there probably still will be a primary challenger - Austin is just the place that will keep generating those - but it will be TX35 which will see a fierce primary competition with a geographically distinct set of potential candidates. It's more of an Austin seat under these lines - but a diverse one, with the San Antonio bit losing voters to the other seats in Bexar. If he stays in TX35 then TX37 becomes the arena, one where I think Wendy Davis may be favored after she rebuilt her brand and name rec in 2020.