US House Redistricting: Minnesota

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's a gerrymander. It combines MN-03 with Carver County and McLeod County which it has no reason to be combined with and splits Walz's base by removing Nicollet. Nicollet and McLeod are not metro counties and have no place in a metro district. And Nicollet has no place being separated from Blue Earth.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It is when it's obviously done just to shore up the closest Republican held seat (MN-03) or carve out the base of of a Dem incumbent (which is blatantly what the separation of Nicollet and Blue Earth is.)

Have you ever been to the Mankato area? I lived there for five years. Mankato (Blue Earth) and North Mankato (Nicollet) are so closely linked that they don't even have separate "now entering" signs, the city limits for both just says both Mankato and North Mankato. There is no reason to separate it besides splitting a Democratic incumbent's home.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Dude, no one is complaining about the map being shifted to reflect population adjustments. It's about how those adjustments are done. There is no reason to push MN-03 out to McLeod County. It can be easily kept within the metro to meet ideal population. I have a feeling that if McLeod was a Democratic county like Rice it probably wouldn't have been included.

Splitting Nicollet is a gerrymander because there is simply no other reason to do so. No one can seriously argue it has more in common with the southern exurbs, or that Mankato and southeast Minnesota have more in common with those remote western counties that it's pushed up to. It's pretty obvious why this is done, Nicollet isn't that Democratic of a county but is part of Walz's solid base. He won it by almost 20 points in 2010 despite winning by only 5 points district-wide. And the numbers Walz racked up in some of those precincts in it in 2006 and 2008 look like they belong in the inner Twin Cities. Do you seriously believe the Republicans didn't take this into account at all in removing it? It's certainly not impossible to keep in the district when drawing a map, actually it's more difficult to get a logical district with it removed (not that that district is logical.)

This btw is blatantly untrue:

In the last redistricting, the Demcrats bitched and moaned that it was unfair for there to be four out-state anchored  districts, and four metro-based districts when the metro was 58% of the state. The courts agreed, and restructured the state's districts. Republican Representatives in Southern Minnesota were harmed.

No Republicans were harmed by the 2000 redistricting. Kennedy got an almost completely new district that he won in and would've continued to hold had he not been a complete idiot who thought he could win a Senate seat. Gutknecht's district got about two points more Republican. He lost in 2006 because it was still a swing district, it was a horrible year for Republicans and he got detached and unpopular in the district, not because it was drawn anymore significantly Democratic. Just look at a map, it lost Democratic Rice County and some marginal swing counties for some heavily Republican counties out west. Gore lost the most Democratic county added to the district by almost 6 points.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Dude, no one is complaining about the map being shifted to reflect population adjustments. It's about how those adjustments are done. There is no reason to push MN-03 out to McLeod County. It can be easily kept within the metro to meet ideal population.

Only by pushing other districts out in McLeod or some other rural county. The Metro simply isn't 62.5% of the state. Choices to cross into rural areas had to be made.

Yes, and it can be limited to two districts like the current map. Not three like here.

One the whole, this map concentrates those crossing into the second district much more than the previous lines.

Uh, hardly. The second just expands out further into some odd areas.

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But, there was at least two "reasons." First, it was entirely proper to concentrate all the rural areas attached to the metro into one district. It was on the border of the second, and the second expanded into rural areas. Some counties had to be added. The second reason is population equality.

But it doesn't do that. McLeod and southern Stearns aren't in the second. And Nicollet wouldn't work if Carver wasn't removed to shore up the third.

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I have no doubt that it would be obvious that folks would be happiest if exactly 62.5% of the state was in the metro.  Since it isn't, it is obvious that some rural folks are going to have to accept being placed into a metro-based district. Concentrating those rural folks in one district, instead of splitting them in half,  to me, gives them a greater voice.

Nicollet isn't a rural county, it's a core part of metro Mankato. This split is for no reason beyond partisan ones.

That is a choice I like and you don't like. Where is the "gerrymandering?"

Because Nicollet was obviously removed to weaken Walz.

Choices had to be made. The folks in Minnesota elected Republican to make those choices, and their plan reflects their interests more than yours. That democracy in action. Live with it.

And elected a Governor who can veto this crap. Live with it.

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No Republicans were harmed by the 2000 redistricting. Kennedy got an almost completely new district that he won in and would've continued to hold had he not been a complete idiot who thought he could win a Senate seat.

Having a nearly new district is disadvantageous. Your argument is akin to claiming, "While we did shoot at him, we missed, so it wasn't attempted murder."[/quote]

So the court specifically drew the map to target Gutknecht? Then why remove Rice? The western counties voted for him solidly. He wasn't harmed by the new district, it just wasn't enough help.

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There were three South Minnesota seats. Why are you only mentioning two?

Another blatant lie. There were not three southern Minnesota seats in the 90s map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL this is pretty amusing:

I have no doubt that partisan gerrymandering in your favor seems "reasonable" to you. Nor do I doubt that partisan gerrymander in your favor seem "fair" to you. Nor, do I doubt that partisan gerrymandering in your favor seems "objective" to you.

You have expanded a Charlotte surburban district way east to Moore county just to avoid including Northern suburbs that would result in the Northern areas including Winston-Salem.  A person using objective redistricting criteria would never include such a finger. It is a partisan results-driven  exercise.

Likewise, having a district wrap around Greensboro  is partisan-driven gerrymandering. Why objectivity demands pairing Winston-Salem and part of Greensboro in the Triad rather than Winston-Salem, Davidson County and Highpoint [Where you can pair two whole counties] is an exercise in rationalization at best, and an absurdity at worse.

In the East we see the same gerrymandering passed off as objectivity. Instead of creating a coastal district that expands inland, or a Southern tier district, you try to create a Southern tier district that excludes the Republican areas along the tier, but expands Northward to find Democrats, and a coastal district that won't expand to the next county in the South, but, expands way to the West in its Northern reaches.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

St. Cloud in the 6th now isn't horribly illogical (part of it is in Sherburne after all and there's no real clear line where the St. Cloud suburbs end and Twin Cities exurbs begin), but that's hardly true of McLeod in with the same seat as the middle Minneapolis suburbs like Eden Prairie. McLeod and Carver together kind of makes sense, but not in a Hennepin-dominated seat.

And there is really no logical reason to put Nicollet in with the exurbs, yet put Mankato and Rochester in with some remote farming counties in west central Minnesota they have virtually no connection to.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So removing part of Carver and replacing it with the industrial areas south of St. Paul? While that's not impossible, I don't think Kline would be too fond of it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My dream map, possible if the DFL had held the legislature:





MN-01: Becomes a bit more DFL, picks up some marginal to lean DFL areas and sheds some heavily Republican areas in the west. 51.8% Obama, so if Walz ever made a surprise retirement, the DFL could be in trouble, but Walz is clearly safe here for awhile.
MN-02: Turned into a GOP uber-pack seat. The swing rural areas south of the metro are dropped, as are the swing middle suburbs in Dakota and Washington counties, and it picks up the rest of the exurbs and a few hardcore GOP rural counties. 56.9% McCain.
MN-03: Minneapolis split to share the wealth! This is now the west side of Minneapolis plus the southern half of Hennepin County (the east-west split will be explained later.) Paulsen won't enjoy his new 61.6% Obama district.
MN-04: I traded the northern half of Ramsey County for some middle suburbs taken from MN-02. Doesn't change the partisan makeup much actually, 63.5% Obama so it only marginally drops.
MN-05: The west half of Minneapolis plus the northern half of Hennepin. The split in Minneapolis is east/west specifically because of Keith Ellison, while he is no longer very controversial and most people have forgotten the attacks on him in 2006, I specifically drew it to remove all the voters who might be most prone to being "scared" by such things if the attacks came up again. So he gets western Minneapolis, aka blacks and hipsters, as opposed to the ethnic blue collar whites and middle class families in east Minneapolis. St. Louis Park was specifically put in MN-03 to lessen the Nation of Islam/false smears of anti-Semitism. 63% Obama, so he'll probably get in the high 50s with the GOP candidate around the mid-30s.
MN-06: This new monstrosity stretches from St. Cloud to Red Wing. Has the northern half of Ramsey County and almost all of Washington, and has lost most of the hardcore GOP exurbs. The district is still only 49.8% Obama, but that's enough to ensure Bachmann's defeat assuming she does run for re-election. Granted a saner Republican could certainly take it.
MN-07: Not changed much, Democrats would be in trouble if Peterson retired, but not much can be done about that. 50.4% McCain, making it very marginally more Republican, but Peterson will never be in trouble, nor would it be completely lost without him.
MN-08: Despite adding all of Bemidji I didn't change it that much. 53.4% Obama marginally pushes it in the DFL direction, but not much that can be done to strengthen it otherwise, and Cravaack is an obvious fluke as literally the only Republican to win that seat in the last decade for any office. He goes down in the next year that isn't a GOP wave.

So it's 7-1, though if both Peterson and Walz make a surprise retirement, Bachmann continues on her quixotic quest instead of running for re-election and the DFL nominate someone awful against Cravaack it could end up 5-3 in a best case scenario for them. But the 7-1 is far far more likely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ah, I remember that GOP map being posted earlier and the argument from BigSkyBob it was a completely logical map and not a gerrymander. Not going down that path again....

But anyway the GOP split the part of North Mankato alongside the river which is as DFL as Mankato proper into MN-01 and put the outer part of it which is standard Republican suburbia in MN-02. Which strikes me as kind of just an insult to the area and Walz, they still have St. Peter in Nicollet County, if you're going to split it why not just put North Mankato and St. Peter in MN-01 and keep just the rural area? And those rural areas to the west are hardly part of the community of interest with southern Minnesota, nor is tacking on McLeod to Hennepin suburbs. But we've had this discussion already.

The DFL map is pretty clever and caught a few things even I didn't think of, they made MN-01 a bit more DFL in a district that actually fits a community of interest better than the current map even if it doesn't look as nice and replaced Cravaack's home and base with St. Cloud. They also turned MN-02 into an outer suburb pack district and MN-03 into an inner suburban swing seat, and while it's kind of odd from a CoI standpoint makes sense partisan-wise, Paulsen loses much of his base in northern and western Hennepin County and has to deal with new areas just south of St. Paul that have no reason to like him. What verin described as a "real horror" in MN-04 is clearly a swipe at Bachmann since her home is drawn into the same district as St. Paul. Bachmann would have to move to somewhere in MN-06 and face a potential primary battle with Cravaack, Cravaack would have to choose between moving to somewhere else in MN-08 and trying to win in a more DFL district or staying where he is and face Bachmann in the MN-06 in a primary battle. Either way someone the DFL hates goes down.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That third district actually makes sense if you look at it without the rest of the districts, it's basically a southern string of immediate suburbs combined with a spike that obviously proves it was drawn with Terri Bonoff in mind. And it's 55% Obama and 52.6% Dem average, so Bonoff would definitely be heavily favored over Paulsen.

Torie might be right the 3-way Hennepin chop is ugly, but it also isn't entirely without reason, there's three distinct communities of interest in Hennepin that are seperated. The real problem and with the DFL's drawing of the third is the ugliness required in the other districts, like connecting northern Hennepin to Goodhue County or adding rural parts of Washington County in with St. Paul. But definitely more logical than many of those inane GOP chops. A court of course will likely just ignore both maps and simply modify the current one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ironically muon's map above is basically a mild DFL gerrymander, it drives MN-05 into some swing middle suburban areas and thus allows MN-03 to take in some heavily DFL inner suburbs and greatly weaken Paulsen, it shores up Walz a bit more by dumping the heavily GOP rural areas in the western part of the district even if it replaces them with lean GOP counties, and MN-02 is also made more DFL by expanding into the inner suburbs of St. Paul. Kind of similar to what the DFL probably would've proposed if a court had to pick either their map or the GOP one like in Colorado.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hmm interesting. Due to the loss of Cottage Grove MN-02's PVI is virtually unchanged.

MN-03 though moves to 54% Obama and 51.4% DFL average, guaranteeing Paulsen's defeat in a wave year and making it very likely in even a merely good Democratic year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

First impressions:

-Bachmann running in the 4th against McCollum was never anything but wishful thinking, but if she did she would lose by a lot more than 15 points. Closer to double that. But even Bachmann isn't crazy enough to do that when she can just move a few miles north to be back in the district, which is unfortunately even more Republican now. Now the only non-staunchly Republican areas it has are the liberal part of St. Cloud and some swingy suburbs in lower Anoka like Blaine.

-So my workplace is in MN-2, ugh. I don't really like the idea of having to travel to a district represented by a Republican every day, though who knows I might have a new job before the vote is actually held...though really my workplace doesn't belong there, nor do towns with "St. Paul" in the name. It's almost like even the court couldn't resist an opportunity to spite Bachmann.

-Kline and Paulsen's districts are about equal in PVI now. Neither is likely to lose, but then again Kline has never had a serious challenger since he took office and doesn't really have a huge personal vote especially in the new areas, DFL should at least try to recruit here. At least moreso than against Paulsen, the main thing to consider is that Kline's new territory is far less Republican than Paulsen's.

-The split of Rice is kind of ugly, but it makes sense. Faribault always belonged in MN-1, it's a classic midwestern working class town that MN-1 is full of. Northfield (where ColinWixted is going to college now, unless he transferred), is basically just a college town tucked away on the fringe of the metro and would be just another exurb without the colleges. The two share a county but not much in common and aren't even in the same State Senate seat. Both are now in the right district. This helps Walz of course.

-The 8th doesn't change much which isn't surprising since no major changes were needed. Cravaack will lose unless the DFL messes things up badly since he hasn't done much anything to build goodwill or a personal vote, he notoriously started out opening only one constituent services office near his home and completely neglected Duluth which is basically the "capital" of the district, Oberstar whom he accused of being out of touch always had four offices (one in the exurbs, Duluth, Iron Range and rural western counties). He eventually opened one in Duluth after the backlash, and has been a lockstep GOP voter. BTW isn't Snowguy's home in the 8th now?

-Putting Brooklyn Center in with us may help Paulsen but it makes sense, and the only reason it wasn't done in 2002 was it would make the rest of the district kind of awkward. The split of Edina is kind of weird, but the area that was included in the 5th isn't "cake eater" territory anymore. My favorite mall is now in the 5th district. Under the old map I have been to four districts in the state this year (2, 3, 4 and 5), under the new one it's just 2, 4 and 5.

I've just eyeballed the legislative seats but it appears the changes so far are mostly just numerical, I noticed the Edina based House seat has shed some of its more Republican precincts which is bad news for the teabagger incumbent. Definitely no endangering of us retaking either house.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah and the area that Walz lost to the west is more Republican than anything he gained. But I tried drawing this in DRA, and the partisan change to the first is basically statistically negligible. So Walz is fine, but we all already knew that anyway (it's not like major changes to the district were ever geographically possible anyway)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK here's something I noticed about the legislative map: They actually put all of downtown in the same district and attached it to the residential area most connected to it. This seems like common sense, but the current map for some inexplicable reason carves up downtown and attaches pieces of it to locations with no direct connection like uptown, the north Minneapolis slums and even the University area. Sure not many people live in the actual downtown, but it doesn't make any sense to carve it up like that.

More commentary on legislative districts later once I get the time to check them out more...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm going to try to handicap all legislative seats to see what our odds are of taking back both chambers. I was kind of scared at first but realize it's not that difficult or time consuming after seeing how many seats "exurbs, Safe R" or "Twin Cities, safe DFL".

Will do the Senate first.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maps:

http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/Redistricting2011Final/Minnesota_State_Legislative_Districts_Statewide.pdf
http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/Redistricting2011Final/Minnesota_State_Legislative_Districts_Metropolitan_Area.pdf

Senate:

1: LeRoy Stumpf should have no problem getting re-elected here, he won easily even in 2010 and the district doesn't change much, was barely Obama, still barely Obama. Safe DFL.
2: Kind of a weird seat, I don't know why there's an insistence Bemidji always needs to be separate from the Reservation. DFLer Rod Skoe lives here and goes from barely Obama to barely McCain, but he'd still be favored outside of a 2010 situation. Lean DFL.
3: Safe DFL seat, now includes Koochiching county, no big change. Tom Bakk should be fine here. Safe DFL.
4: The district based around Moorhead, which is basically Fargo's spillover into Minnesota. Pretty solidly DFL seat, now the non-Clay portion includes Norman County instead of the Republican counties to the south, so Keith Langseth should be fine. Safe DFL.
5: Snowguy's home seat, and the first one with a Republican incumbent. John Carlson won in 2010, but the seat is 51.5% Obama and 54% DFL average so it's tough territory for him outside a wave, especially since turnout in the DFL areas of this region sucked in 2010. Lean DFL.
6: The new seat for mining towns in northern St. Louis County, due to population loss goes into Aitkin now, no big deal. David Tomassoni should win this seat easily (by the way check his Wikipedia article if you want to see why Phil might be tempted to vote for him if he lived here.) Safe DFL.
7: Duluth. Roger Reinert runs and wins. Safe DFL.
8: This is a safe GOP seat, but includes two Republican incumbents, Gretchen Hoffman from Otter Tail County and Bill Ingebrigtsen from Alexandria. The latter might just run in the new 12 instead. Safe GOP regardless.
9: Even safer GOP seat, but incumbent. Maybe Ingebrigtsen would rather run here, it contains a few portions of his old seat but is far from Alexandria. Safe GOP no matter what.
10: Interesting district, used to have an outed gay Republican incumbent, was primaried in 2010 by the supposedly not interested in social issues Tea Party, now held by a far right winger with the old incumbent endorsing his DFL opponent. It's a conservative but not extremist district, about 52% McCain but some of the Republicans around Brainerd are kind of moderate, so we'll call it Lean GOP.
11: This seat gets a bit more Republican due to population loss forcing it into Kanabec, but 55% Obama is safe for this part of the world. Tony Lourey will hold it for another 10 years unless he retires. Safe DFL.
12: As far as I can tell, this seat is open. It's mostly DFL rural areas combined with parts of Stearns County, now making it a 52.7% McCain district. A DFL incumbent in the area passed away recently and a special election for the old district is going to be held, will probably be won by the DFL, the new incumbent might run here, but it'd have to be considered Lean GOP in any case.
13: Suburbs of St. Cloud and some old German towns, Safe GOP. Incumbent Michelle Fischbach, a known anti-abortion zealot should win here easily.
14: Thew new St. Cloud district. As usual, a swing one. 51.5% Obama and DFL percentage, GOP incumbent John Pederson. Tarryl Clark would probably be favored here but she's running for CD8 instead, but this one will be heavily fought. Toss Up.
15: Kind of succeeds the old 16th, held by Republican Dave Becker, he should win fine here again, even though this was actually a pickup in 2010 due to bizarre special election circumstances resulting in a huge upset for the DFL. Safe GOP.
16: Remnants of the old and vacant 20, so the winner of that special might run here, but incumbent Gary Dahms would be favored. Lean GOP.
17: Also includes remnants of the above mentioned and essentially dissolved seat. It's the most DFL of the seats, McCain won by half a point. Also the general area used to be represented by Dean Johnson even if he screwed himself to lose in 2006 of all years with that gaffe. Still not unwinnable, Lean GOP.
18: Safe GOP seat, safe for incumbent Scott Newman, Safe GOP.
19: My old home! The old district was considered kind of swingy due to Republican townships in Sibley County, the new one has lost those and is 56.3% Obama. So safe for Kathy Sheran though she didn't really need it. Safe DFL.
20: This is kind of an interesting seat, it combines ultra-liberal Northfield and some very conservative rural areas, its predecessor in the 25th was held by a longtime GOP incumbent who resigned in late 2007 to take a judicial position, a DFLer won the special and then lost in 2010. The new seat is very narrowly for Obama, won by about half a point, has a one point generic DFL advantage, VERY polarized. And to top it off the incumbent Al DeKruif doesn't even live here, though he no doubt will soon. Toss Up.
21: This is a very close district won by McCain by 0.2%, however the GOP incumbent John Howe is the former mayor of Red Wing and probably has quite a personal vote, so it'll take a wave to dislodge him most likely. Lean GOP.
22: The old Jim Vickerman seat which even had the same number, now takes in some more DFL areas. Vickerman retired in 2010 and his son ran for the seat but obviously no Democrat could've held that in 2010. The new seat isn't as extreme at 51.2% McCain, but would require a really strong candidate or a wave to beat Doug Magnus. Lean GOP.
23: Not a radically conservative seat (51.9% McCain), but the Republicans have a very strong incumbent in Julie Rosen. So safe until she retires. Safe GOP.
24: Extremist incumbent Mike Parry is retiring for a quixiotic campaign against Walz, despite that he was only first elected to the seat in early 2010 in a special election. I wonder if he was forced out by power brokers who wanted someone more electable running. Seat is 50.4% McCain but DFL incumbents hold both House seats even after 2010. Call it Lean GOP.
25: For all the recent gains the DFL have made in Rochester, we kind of get screwed by the way the courts insist of keeping it split between State Senate seats since all the surrounding areas are quite Republican. David Senjem should be re-elected here though I think it slightly moves to the left from his old seat, which used to contain all of Dodge county, the new seat is barely Obama but would require an open seat or a wave. Senjem is the current Majority Leader replacing the disgraced Koch. So Safe GOP.
26: Carla Nelson holds this seat, which is marginally more DFL, the closest seat to it pre-redistricting was DFL from 2006 until 2010, worth noting this district contains the blackest seat in outstate Minnesota and probably the only minority white non-Reservation precinct in outstate Minnesota (which is about evenly split between whites and Hispanics with about 15% of blacks). Toss up.
27: This seat is slightly more Republican than its successor, but Dan Sparks should have no trouble, it's still over 58% Obama and Sparks won over 60% even in 2010 even if he only won by like 12 votes in 2002 defeating a fluke GOP incumbent. Safe DFL.
28: This didn't change much if at all in redistricting, but incumbent Jeremy Miller is in big trouble. He won in 2010 with awful college student turnout across the state, including Winona. Gay marriage and Obama mean that probably won't happen this time, Miller voted for the gay marriage amendment too. And it's a 56.7% Obama seat. This is going to be the DFL's top target. Lean DFL.
29: The seat of disgraced former Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch who led the campaign against gay marriage only to be found to be having an affair with a staffer leading to her resignation from her position. She is standing down and not running again, but it's a safe seat regardless. Safe GOP.
30: This is a basically new seat out in the exurbs, open and safe. Safe GOP.
31: Another exurban seat home to incumbent Mike Jungbauer. Safe GOP.
32: The new seat for the home of Cravaack exurbs. Believe it or not this seat fell just in 2010, but is probably unwinnable back now. Sean Nienow should be fine. Safe GOP.
33: This seat keeps the same number, very Republican territory about Lake Minnetonka basically. Gen Olson has held this for three decades, even if she retires it's safe. Safe GOP.

To be continued....

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

34: New district for powerful Republican figure Warren Limmer, now more safe. BTW it looks kind of ugly on a map but makes sense to anyone who's driven on I-94. Safe GOP.
35: I think this seat is actually open. It's a pretty safe Republican district. Safe GOP.
36: This is a swing seat based off the old 47 that fell in 2010. Few changes, Benjamin Kruse will have a fight on his hands. Wonder if he'll flee to the 35th? Toss Up.
37: Pretty much the same. Pam Wolf is the incumbent, should be a competitive seat. Toss Up.
38: Incumbent Roger Chamberlain lives here, and he should be thankful that it is far more Republican than his old seat. Safe GOP.
39: This is actually the closest thing to Michele Bachmann's old seat. It's actually a bit more DFL than the old seat in fact due to the pulling out of Anoka County, but not enough to be truly competitive (won by McCain but he didn't break 50%), if it weren't for that the current incumbent Ray Vandeveer is as crazy as she is. Lean GOP.
40: Chris Eaton won the special election for this this year when the old incumbent died, and it's still a very safe seat. Safe DFL.
41: Barb Goodwin, the Democrat who ousted the old corrupt incumbent in this area should have no problem winning again. Safe DFL.
42: Normally this would be a reasonably safe DFL seat. However the incumbent John Marty is one of the most liberal members of the State Senate, he ran for Governor as the most liberal candidate with a platform based on gay marriage and single-payer health care. The seat has shifted a tad to the right. He probably still wins though. He could also run in the 66th but that would open a primary battle. Lean DFL.
43: Basically the old 55, incumbnet Chuck Wiger should win easily. Safe DFL.
44: The new seat of Terri Bonoff, who survived 2010 by the skin of her teeth. But if she hung on then, she should have no problem from now on. Safe DFL.
45: Democrat Ann Rest should keep winning here fine. Safe DFL.
46: This is basically the "Jew seat", so the lean is obvious. Ron Latz is safe. Safe DFL.
47: Julianne Ortman won this seat held by Pawlenty's Lt. Gov., safe GOP seat in heavily Republican Carver County. Safe GOP.
48: This is a 52% Obama seat, but the numbers in megachurch crowd-heavy Eden Prairie are pretty misleading, where lots of rich more secular Republicans freaked out over the stock market crash and Sarah Palin. Incumbent David Hann did a joke campaign for Governor in 2010 that went nowhere and he didn't put any real effort into (think Fred Thompson) which no doubt annoyed some people, and he won by a fairly unimpressive for 2010 margin, but the district is polarized. We'll call it Lean GOP for now, might be a true Toss Up by the end of the decade.
49: This is great news for the Democrats, the district is basically the old 41 held by Republican Geoff Michel forever. It's 54.7% Obama and has got more Dem each cycle, even though the Republicans currently hold both House seats, one is an almost certain goner (more on that later.) Michel should've held it easily regardless, but he just announced his retirement. Lean DFL.
50: No incumbent here, it most resembles the old 63 represented by Ken Kelash but he lives outside the boundaries. He might want to run here regardless. Otherwise the incumbent narrowly defeated in 2010 Jon Doll might want to do a return since his old Bloomington to Burnsville seat is now far more Republican. Safe DFL no matter what.
51: Resembles the old 38, a classic swing suburban seat that narrowly fell in 2010. Ted Daley will run again but he could lose a rematch. Toss Up.
52: This is a safe seat and is home to the DFL PPT James Metzen. He'll win easily. Safe DFL.
53: This is based around Woodbury, a very affluent suburb and swing area, Republican Ted Lillie represents the closest district in resemblance but he doesn't live in it. The seat is a bit more DFL anyway since it now goes to Maplewood instead of exurbs, so he'll have a tough time no matter what. Toss Up.
54: Basically the old 57, DFLer Katie Sieben barely survived 2010 but it's a Democratic seat, not every election will be 2010. Lean DFL.
55: Safe Republican district, Claire Robling holds it, will still do so. Safe Republican.
56: This is a former swing district, now barely competitive, Obama won it but by only 0.4% in an area he greatly overran. The incumbent is pretty conservative and unpleasant though (he's known for claiming that school integration destroyed Minneapolis back in April), so it's not quite safe, call it Lean R.
57: This district is a tad more swingy than you'd expect one this distance from the city centers to be, Apple Valley for whatever reason does have quite but the incumbent Chris Gerlach has never had much trouble, with him it's Safe R.
58: Exurban seat, no trouble for incumbent Dave Thompson, Safe R.

The rest are all Twin Cities seats, except 66 which is basically evenly split between part of St. Paul and some inner suburbs, and is a safe DFL seat regardless. So 56-67 are all Safe DFL. I'll just point out that at 87.9% Obama, mine remains the strongest DFL seat in the state.

More to come.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd trust the legislative site before Wikipedia. Mind you she's not running the 46th anyway.

The MN Sec of State site does somewhere have a list of every candidate that filed for office in various years's filing report including their address, so this stuff can be confirmed.

Edit: Oh wait, the legislative site gives her actual address. Well then yeah that's definitely more reliable. I should go fix Wikipedia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK I see where the confusion comes from, her zip code is mostly Hopkins and Google Maps confuses her address for a Hopkins one. But her precinct is definitely Minnetonka. Yes I looked it up.

Never knew she was Jewish either. Probably not that surprising though considering she's not too far off from St. Louis Park.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll do more tomorrow after church when I got free time, but here's something of note, I got a fundraising email from the anti-gay marriage ban amendment group that was written by Rep. John Kriesel, one of four Republicans opposed, whose speech against the amendment went viral. He notes in it that he's also not seeking re-election to "spend more time with his family".

This is notable for a few reasons:

1-He probably didn't want to risk losing and ruining all his goodwill with liberal activists (I mean he was selected as man of the year by the magazine of Minneapolis' gay community.)
2-He only served one term, and is very young. So he might just be sick of the far right in his party.
3-His seat will be near impossible to hold without him, especially as the GOP will likely nominate some teabagger nut to replace him.

The third being the most relevant here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK I think I'll revive this soon, especially with my recent thoughts about assigning parliamentary seat style names (most likely Canadian-style) to all of them, which I find much easier in tracking them. For that though I think I'll create a new thread inviting others to do so for all states. This will actually help a ton since most seats have obvious predecessors but often the numbers are way different making tracking changes under the numbers a little difficult.

I will note that the DFL seems to have done a decent job with candidate recruitment in western Minnesota, and we might pick up some surprising seats, though I'll wait for the weekend to do a bit more in depth look into that.