2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Lief 🗽]

Cook moves PA-SEN back to toss-up.

Same day that Suffolk has Fetterman +6/7 with Oz nearly -20 in favorability and at 40%.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/pennsylvania-senate/pennsylvania-senate-moves-back-toss

I get there is a tiny bit of uncertainty about this race depending on how you look at it - but I'm not sure how can actually say it's a tossup when Oz has never led a single poll (the lowest it has been is Fetterman +2) and he has struggled to top 40-44% in nearly 90% of the polling.

A Democrat leading in Pennsylvania by 46-40 in late September is a toss-up race. You can't just say "Fetterman +6, must be Lean D!" You have to look at this stuff in context, and the context is a state where Republicans often beat their polls/close strong in the end, the D candidate is in the mid-40s, and 14% undecided.

[wbrocks67]

Cook moves PA-SEN back to toss-up.

Same day that Suffolk has Fetterman +6/7 with Oz nearly -20 in favorability and at 40%.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/pennsylvania-senate/pennsylvania-senate-moves-back-toss

I get there is a tiny bit of uncertainty about this race depending on how you look at it - but I'm not sure how can actually say it's a tossup when Oz has never led a single poll (the lowest it has been is Fetterman +2) and he has struggled to top 40-44% in nearly 90% of the polling.

A Democrat leading in Pennsylvania by 46-40 in late September is a toss-up race. You can't just say "Fetterman +6, must be Lean D!" You have to look at this stuff in context, and the context is a state where Republicans often beat their polls/close strong in the end, the D candidate is in the mid-40s, and 14% undecided.

Yes, and the context is that Fetterman is +7 among "almost certain to vote", 48-41, and that in the 46-40 sample, 16% of undecided are women, who lean D. Most of the undecided voters in a lot of these polls tend to be non-white and/or female, so it's not the usual "undecideds lean R".

[Mr.Phips]

Cook moves PA-SEN back to toss-up.

Same day that Suffolk has Fetterman +6/7 with Oz nearly -20 in favorability and at 40%.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/pennsylvania-senate/pennsylvania-senate-moves-back-toss

I get there is a tiny bit of uncertainty about this race depending on how you look at it - but I'm not sure how can actually say it's a tossup when Oz has never led a single poll (the lowest it has been is Fetterman +2) and he has struggled to top 40-44% in nearly 90% of the polling.

A Democrat leading in Pennsylvania by 46-40 in late September is a toss-up race. You can't just say "Fetterman +6, must be Lean D!" You have to look at this stuff in context, and the context is a state where Republicans often beat their polls/close strong in the end, the D candidate is in the mid-40s, and 14% undecided.

The good news for Dems is that PA isn’t FL.  A 46-40 lead in FL is a likely loss.  Not sure if that’s quite the case in PA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ moves NC-Sen to Toss-up:

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577355589721653249

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

DDHQ moves NC-Sen to Toss-up:

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577355589721653249

I don't know if I agree with this call or not, but wow that cash-on-hand advantage

[windjammer]

I mean, OK WA and IN are semi competitive apparently. What a weird cycle

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I mean, OK WA and IN are semi competitive apparently. What a weird cycle

None of them are actually competitive.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

About that American Greatness Poll:

18-39: GOP 48.2-41.6
40-64: GOP 46.7-43.9
65+: DEM 49.7-43.5

sure.jan

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

About that American Greatness Poll:

18-39: GOP 48.2-41.6
40-64: GOP 46.7-43.9
65+: DEM 49.7-43.5

sure.jan

Somehow managing to get the age dynamic of American politics completely backwards is almost kind of impressive.

[2016]

The Suffolk Polls should be discounted especially in a State like PA. This is the same Pollster that told us they won't poll the Obama vs Romney Race in Virginia & Florida in 2012 because Romney had the States in the back. How that turned out?

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

I warn my Democrats friends on the other side: A Popular Vote win in the House Vote means absolutely nothing. You have to win 218 Individual Districts to keep control of the Chamber.

It's like with the Electoral College: You have to win 270 EC Votes.

Pollsters are refusing telling Public how things look like on basis of the GCB in competitive Districts except for that one ABC News Poll.

There is a reason Democrats wanted House Resolution 1 passed so Redistricting would be Federalized.
They want a pure Washington Power Grab.

[S019]

About that American Greatness Poll:

18-39: GOP 48.2-41.6
40-64: GOP 46.7-43.9
65+: DEM 49.7-43.5

sure.jan

It looks like someone got a bit too carried away with the “right wing zoomers” meme. 😛

[soundchaser]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

[kwabbit]

Not sure if this is the right thread, but has NYT/Siena indicated whether they’re going to conduct state or district level polling this cycle? I feel like it was implied back in July when they released their first poll, but since then it’s been complete silence. It’s not like there’s plenty of time either; there’s now only 5 weeks until Election Day.

It would be pathetic to dodge the cycle completely. If Nate Cohn wants to accuse the polls of overestimating Dems, then he should put something out there himself. He’s not just a data analyst, but a major pollster himself, so I think he has that duty.

[GeorgiaModerate]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

I think he's saying that Democrats will "waste" much of their GCB advantage by piling up unneeded votes in districts that they were already going to win, meaning that they would fall short in close races.  Of course, there is zero evidence for this one way or the other at this point.

[2016]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

To put it simple: Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts which leads everyone to believe Democrats are winning while they will clobbered in the competitive Disticts.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

To put it simple: Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts which leads everyone to believe Democrats are winning while they will clobbered in the competitive Disticts.

Ahh okay, thank you my dear. 

[2016]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

I think he's saying that Democrats will "waste" much of their GCB advantage by piling up unneeded votes in districts that they were already going to win, meaning that they would fall short in close races.  Of course, there is zero evidence for this one way or the other at this point.

ABC/WaPo Poll from last week Sep 25:

And another result is notable: Among those living in congressional districts that are rated as at
least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight (neither solid Republican nor solid
Democratic), registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide 55-34 percent – nearly as
big as the Republican lead in solid GOP districts (+24 points). Democrats lead by 35 points in
solid Democratic districts, pointing to a potential overvote where they’re most prevalent.


So, please stop saying that there is no evidence when there is:
D's lead by 35 Points in Blue Districts
R's lead by 24 Points in Red Districts
R lead 55-34 in competitive Disticts

[Devils30]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

I think he's saying that Democrats will "waste" much of their GCB advantage by piling up unneeded votes in districts that they were already going to win, meaning that they would fall short in close races.  Of course, there is zero evidence for this one way or the other at this point.

ABC/WaPo Poll from last week Sep 25:

And another result is notable: Among those living in congressional districts that are rated as at
least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight (neither solid Republican nor solid
Democratic), registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide 55-34 percent – nearly as
big as the Republican lead in solid GOP districts (+24 points). Democrats lead by 35 points in
solid Democratic districts, pointing to a potential overvote where they’re most prevalent.


So, please stop saying that there is no evidence when there is:
D's lead by 35 Points in Blue Districts
R's lead by 24 Points in Red Districts
R lead 55-34 in competitive Disticts

These small subsamples of 80 people are meaningless.

[GeorgiaModerate]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

To put it simple: Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts which leads everyone to believe Democrats are winning while they will clobbered in the competitive Disticts.

There very well could be such a turnout difference, but I think you've drawn exactly the opposite conclusion of what the result would be.  There is certainly evidence from the Kansas primaries and post-Dobbs special elections that D-leaning districts and counties turned out at higher rates than R-leaning ones.  But this turnout difference didn't occur because voters happened to live inside those districts.  It happened because more Democrats turned out than Republicans, so naturally D-leaning areas had higher turnout than R-leaning ones. 

So what would happen in competitive districts with approximately equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans?  If D's turn out at a higher rate than R's, it would make such districts more likely to go Democratic, because more of them would be voting than their Republican counterparts in the district.  If the turnout patterns from Kansas and the post-Dobbs specials are replicated in November, the Republicans would get clobbered.  The good news for them is that the Democratic turnout advantage is likely to be reduced or eliminated in November.

[2016]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

To put it simple: Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts which leads everyone to believe Democrats are winning while they will clobbered in the competitive Disticts.

There very well could be such a turnout difference, but I think you've drawn exactly the opposite conclusion of what the result would be.  There is certainly evidence from the Kansas primaries and post-Dobbs special elections that D-leaning districts and counties turned out at higher rates than R-leaning ones.  But this turnout difference didn't occur because voters happened to live inside those districts.  It happened because more Democrats turned out than Republicans, so naturally D-leaning areas had higher turnout than R-leaning ones. 

So what would happen in competitive districts with approximately equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans?  If D's turn out at a higher rate than R's, it would make such districts more likely to go Democratic, because more of them would be voting than their Republican counterparts in the district.  If the turnout patterns from Kansas and the post-Dobbs specials are replicated in November, the Republicans would get clobbered.  The good news for them is that the Democratic turnout advantage is likely to be reduced or eliminated in November.

C'mon, you can't extrapolate from a Referendum and a few tiny Special Elections. If anything the GCB Polls are moving more towards Republicans as the "Summer Dobbs Bounce" is fading and Inflation, Gas Prices taking whole again as we go deeper into the autumn when it is inevitable that you'll need more gas as it gets colder outside. I predict and maybe I'm wrong on it that Gas Prices will be equal or even higher what we saw in 2021/2022 come deep Autumn/Early Winter 2022/2023.

Gas Prices are skyrocketing in NV & AZ. That is not good for the D's running in the Districts in those States as well as the Statewide Candidates like CCM, Kelly, Hobbs and Sisolak.

[soundchaser]

C'mon, you can't extrapolate from a Referendum and a few tiny Special Elections.

*proceeds to extrapolate from a subsample in a single poll*

[GeorgiaModerate]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

To put it simple: Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts which leads everyone to believe Democrats are winning while they will clobbered in the competitive Disticts.

There very well could be such a turnout difference, but I think you've drawn exactly the opposite conclusion of what the result would be.  There is certainly evidence from the Kansas primaries and post-Dobbs special elections that D-leaning districts and counties turned out at higher rates than R-leaning ones.  But this turnout difference didn't occur because voters happened to live inside those districts.  It happened because more Democrats turned out than Republicans, so naturally D-leaning areas had higher turnout than R-leaning ones. 

So what would happen in competitive districts with approximately equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans?  If D's turn out at a higher rate than R's, it would make such districts more likely to go Democratic, because more of them would be voting than their Republican counterparts in the district.  If the turnout patterns from Kansas and the post-Dobbs specials are replicated in November, the Republicans would get clobbered.  The good news for them is that the Democratic turnout advantage is likely to be reduced or eliminated in November.

C'mon, you can't extrapolate from a Referendum and a few tiny Special Elections. If anything the GCB Polls are moving more towards Republicans as the "Summer Dobbs Bounce" is fading and Inflation, Gas Prices taking whole again as we go deeper into the autumn when it is inevitable that you'll need more gas as it gets colder outside. I predict and maybe I'm wrong on it that Gas Prices will be equal or even higher what we saw in 2021/2022 come deep Autumn/Early Winter 2022/2023.

Gas Prices are skyrocketing in NV & AZ. That is not good for the D's running in the Districts in those States as well as the Statewide Candidates like CCM, Kelly, Hobbs and Sisolak.

Excuse me?  Higher turnout in D districts than R districts was your assumption at the heart of your argument.  Right here:

Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blake Masters is doomed if anyone wins in AZ it's Kelly and Lake but in some polls Hobbs is ahead

[Brittain33]

About that American Greatness Poll:

18-39: GOP 48.2-41.6
40-64: GOP 46.7-43.9
65+: DEM 49.7-43.5

sure.jan

Somehow managing to get the age dynamic of American politics completely backwards is almost kind of impressive.

It’s pretty wrong, but 65+ has been a smidge more Dem than the next group down in most polls.