I/P News Reports, Terrorist Leadership Status, War Updates, etc

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wanted to try to create a thread strictly for factual updates about what’s happening with the conflict with minimal opinion, so folks who want to know what’s going on can check without drowning in arguments between folks who’ve made up their minds.  Twitter updates are fine, but I’d ask that folks only post ones here that don’t contain potentially inflammatory side commentary or stuff about things happening outside Israel/Gaza.  

Anyway, to kick things off I will be doing a MegaPost about the status of the various terrorist groups leaderships followed by a news roundup of recent developments in the military conflict itself and a breakdown of the key players on the Israeli side and what they’ve been up to/how much power they actually have.

I think the Israel-Gaza thread has really become a thread for debating the conflict, which side is right, arguing about which side is worse, whether Israel is committing genocide/ethnic cleansing, the college protestors, etc to the point that this project may need a new thread.  That’s very much not what this thread is for; it’s for calmly and objectively discussing what is happening on the ground without needlessly inflammatory language.  

Hopefully this thread will be informative, interesting, and substance focused.  My updates will generally be in the vein of those strictly fact-focused mega-posts I was making at one point that were largely free of personal opinions (aside from some fact-focused analysis).  Anyway, time to write up the terrorist group leadership status post to get things started.

[CumbrianLefty]

You are probably right in thinking this thread a good idea - looking forward to the factual updates

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Notable Terrorist Leaders and their Status: Part 1/3

Palestinian Terrorist Group Leadership Status

Key:

* = May need to be taken out for the war to end
** = Definitely needs to be taken out for the war to end
+ = Directly involved in planning 10/7
# = Personally commanded Hamas troops participating in 10/7 and directly oversaw their atrocities
Name in red = Killed
Name in green = Captured

Hamas Political Leadership:

Top-Tier:

- Ismail Haniyeh* - Leader of Hamas - Living in luxury under government protection in Qatar

- Salah Al-Arouri** - Second in Command of Hamas, Deputy Head of Hamas’ Political Wing, Leader of Hamas in Lebanon, Turkey, and the West Bank, Commander of Hamas’ military forces in the West Bank, Co-Founder of Hamas’ military wing, Chief Hamas Envoy to Hezbollah and Iran, de facto leader of Hamas’ pragmatist faction - Killed in Airstrike

- Khaled Mashal* - Former Head of Hamas, Special Adviser to Haniyeh, De facto liaison between Haniyeh and Hamas’ pragmatist faction, replaced Al-Arouri as de facto leader of Hamas’ pragmatist faction - Living in luxury in Qatar under government protection

- Yahya Sinear**+ - Head of Hamas in Gaza, de facto leader of Hamas’ hardliner faction - Hiding in Gaza

- Essam Al-Da’alis - Head of the Hamas Government Administrative Committee in Gaza (Hamas Prime Minister of Gaza), close ally of Haniyeh - Hiding in Gaza

- Rawhi Mushtaha - Chairman of Hamas’ Economic Committee, close ally of Yahya Sinwar, Hardliner - In Hiding

- Khalil Al-Hayya - Replaced Al-Arouri as Deputy Head of Hamas’ Political Wing (albeit less effective than Al-Arouri was) - Living in luxury in Qatar under government protection

- Zahar Jabarin - Chief money man for Hamas, Replaced Al-Arouri as Head of Hamas in the West Bank (but has thus far proven to be far less effective than Al-Arouri was to the point that initial plans to give him all of Al-Arouri’s former responsibilities were scrapped), Pragmatist - Hiding outside Gaza

Mid-Tier:

- Husam Badran - Hamas’ Chief Emissary to Qatar, International Spokesman for Hamas, Former Head of Hamas’ Armed Forces in North Gaza - Living in luxury in Qatar

- Osama Hamdan - Chief of Hamas’ Foreign Relations Office, Hardliner - Hiding outside of Gaza

- Zakaria Abu Maamar - Gaza Finance Minister - Killed in Airstrike

- Mohammed Ouda+ - Hamas Intelligence Chief - Hiding in Gaza

-  Shadi Baroud + - Hamas Deputy Intelligence Chief - Killed in Airstrike

- Jawad Abu Shammala - Head of Hamas’ National Relations Office, Chief political liaison between Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups - Killed in Airstrike

- Jehad Mheisen - Head of the Gaza National Security Forces, Hardliner - Killed in Airstrike

- Aziz Dweik - Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, President of the Palestinian National Authority according to Hamas - Arrested by Israel

- Mousa Abu Marzook - Former Deputy Head of Hamas’ Political Wing, Khaled Mashal’s right hand man, heavily involved in Hamas’ money laundering operations, Pragmatist - Living in luxury in Qatar under government protection

- Nizar Awadallah - Secretary of Hamas’ Political Bureau - In Hiding

- Fathi Hamad - Head of Hamas’ Executive Committee Office, Former Gaza Interior Minister, Such an extreme hardliner that he basically got put in timeout b/c his rhetoric was too aggressive and violently anti-Semitic for even most of Hamas’ leadership - Hiding in Turkey under government protection, but believed to periodically travel to Lebanon as well

- Sameh Al-Siraj - Head of Internal Security for Gaza - Hiding in either Gaza or Egypt

- Vahi Moshtaha - Senior Advisor to Yahya Sinwar - Hiding in Gaza

Low-Tier:

- Ghazi Hamad - Former Hamas Chief of Bordering Crossing, Former Gaza Deputy Foreign Minister - Hiding in Lebanon or Turkey

- Osama Mazini - Gaza Education Minister, Former Chief Hamas Prisoners for Hostages Negotiator - Killed in Airstrike

- Ali Al-Amoudi - Head of Hamas’ Media (Propaganda) Department - In Hiding

- Mahmoud Al-Zahar - Former Hamas Foreign Minister, Co-Founder of Hamas, Was a hardliner (unclear if he still is or has switched to the pragmatist faction) - In Hiding (likely outside Gaza)

- Ahmad Bahar - Deputy Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, Hardliner - Killed in Airstrike

- Khamis Dababash - Former Hamas Intelligence Chief - Killed in Airstrike


Conclusions: We can see that Israel hasn’t been all that successful in taking out Hamas’ political leadership (at least in Gaza, they’ve had more success in Lebanon, but more on that later).  Al-Arouri was huge, but aside from that admittedly huge win, Israel has embarrassingly little to show for its efforts on the political front.  Admittedly, a lot of these guys operate outside Gaza under Qatari government protection (causing huge tension with the military wing), but even so, you’d expect more progress on this front after all this time.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Can we also have an update on what Israeli political leaders need to be taken out in order for the war to end and what their status is, in particularly the one that is responsible for a wide amount of war crimes.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Notable Terrorist Leaders and their Status: Part 1/3

Palestinian Terrorist Group Leadership Status

...

Conclusions: We can see that Israel hasn’t been all that successful in taking out Hamas’ political leadership (at least in Gaza, they’ve had more success in Lebanon, but more on that later).  Al-Arouri was huge, but aside from that admittedly huge win, Israel has embarrassingly little to show for its efforts on the political front.  Admittedly, a lot of these guys operate outside Gaza under Qatari government protection (causing huge tension with the military wing), but even so, you’d expect more progress on this front after all this time.

Deaths in leadership just create openings for people lower on the totem pole to climb up to. If the goal is to completely eliminate Hamas as Israel have stated, whacking leadership makes them less effective, but does not eliminate them.

Therefore in line with what the stated Israeli goals are, focusing on leadership like you are in your post is at best an ancillary device toward overall war conduct and Israel's stated goals.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Can we also have an update on what Israeli political leaders need to be taken out in order for the war to end and what their status is, in particularly the one that are orchestrating genocide and are responsible for a wide amount of war crimes.

Well you can list all the political leadership and top generals, sure.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Notable Terrorist Leaders and their Status: Part 1/3

Palestinian Terrorist Group Leadership Status

...

Conclusions: We can see that Israel hasn’t been all that successful in taking out Hamas’ political leadership (at least in Gaza, they’ve had more success in Lebanon, but more on that later).  Al-Arouri was huge, but aside from that admittedly huge win, Israel has embarrassingly little to show for its efforts on the political front.  Admittedly, a lot of these guys operate outside Gaza under Qatari government protection (causing huge tension with the military wing), but even so, you’d expect more progress on this front after all this time.

Deaths in leadership just create openings for people lower on the totem pole to climb up to. If the goal is to completely eliminate Hamas as Israel have stated, whacking leadership makes them less effective, but does not eliminate them.

Therefore in line with what the stated Israeli goals are, focusing on leadership like you are in your post is at best an ancillary device toward overall war conduct and Israel's stated goals.

I actually disagree with you on that.  Hamas doesn’t have an endless supply of equally competent leaders.  No one has really been able to come remotely close to filling Al-Arouri’s shoes, so they’ve divided up his responsibilities among various significantly less competent individuals and the highly effective Lebanese Hamas wing he built has been largely dismantled and is now fast approaching a weak rump outfit whose continued existence depends entirely upon the goodwill of Hezbollah.  Hamas’ efforts to organize in the West Bank have also crumbled since his death.  Or take Marwan Issa - Hamas’ second most important military leader and the strategic brain of its military wing - after over a month they still haven’t even found someone to replace him afaik.  Ayman Nofal’s death also cost Hamas one of its most effective military commanders and arguably the best organizational mind in the group’s military wing. 

It really depends on the individual in question imo.  Plenty of these guys are replaceable, but there isn’t a bottomless pit of equally competent and experienced leaders.  Additionally, a number of the top and even some of the mid-level guys don’t really have anyone who can effectively fill their shoes, so taking them out does meaningfully reduce Hamas’ effectiveness and damage the group long-term.

Can we also have an update on what Israeli political leaders need to be taken out in order for the war to end and what their status is, in particularly the one that are orchestrating genocide and are responsible for a wide amount of war crimes.

I am going to eventually do a post regarding major Israeli leaders, how much influence they have, how significant an obstacle they pose to peace/whether peace is viable while they remain in office, etc.  However, for many reasons, I don’t think this anywhere near the same as Hamas or that there are Israeli leaders who need to be assassinated for peace to be viable (voted out of office, OTOH…).  I’m hesitant to get too far into personal opinion regarding war crimes culpability in this thread, but I’d be happy to discuss my thoughts on that with you on discord over the weekend.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Notable Terrorist Leaders and their Status: Part 1/3

Palestinian Terrorist Group Leadership Status

...

Conclusions: We can see that Israel hasn’t been all that successful in taking out Hamas’ political leadership (at least in Gaza, they’ve had more success in Lebanon, but more on that later).  Al-Arouri was huge, but aside from that admittedly huge win, Israel has embarrassingly little to show for its efforts on the political front.  Admittedly, a lot of these guys operate outside Gaza under Qatari government protection (causing huge tension with the military wing), but even so, you’d expect more progress on this front after all this time.

Deaths in leadership just create openings for people lower on the totem pole to climb up to. If the goal is to completely eliminate Hamas as Israel have stated, whacking leadership makes them less effective, but does not eliminate them.

Therefore in line with what the stated Israeli goals are, focusing on leadership like you are in your post is at best an ancillary device toward overall war conduct and Israel's stated goals.

I actually disagree with you on that.  Hamas doesn’t have an endless supply of equally competent leaders.  No one has really been able to come remotely close to filling Al-Arouri’s shoes, so they’ve divided up his responsibilities among various significantly less competent individuals and the highly effective Lebanese Hamas wing he built has been largely dismantled and is now fast approaching a weak rump outfit whose continued existence depends entirely upon the goodwill of Hezbollah.  Hamas’ efforts to organize in the West Bank have also crumbled since his death.  Or take Marwan Issa - Hamas’ second most important military leader and the strategic brain of its military wing - after over a month they still haven’t even found someone to replace him afaik.  Ayman Nofal’s death also cost Hamas one of its most effective military commanders and arguably the best organizational mind in the group’s military wing.  

Making Hamas less effective does not completely eliminate them, and effectiveness is gained back over time. You might see this as a semantic argument but I don't considering it's Israel's stated #1 goal in this war is to prevent Hamas from ever attacking Israel again. It's the main problem I've had with Israeli strategy since a couple weeks into this war: what is Israel doing that is stopping Hamas operations against the country 10 years from now? Killing a leader now does nothing to stop that potential 2034 attack.

Cross-posting this from the main thread, here's my geopolitical take on what the real Israeli goal is since I think their stated goal is unachievable:

Was reading about this conflict yesterday combined with Russia-Ukraine from a geopolitical perspective and what this does to "rules-based order". Here's my amateur armchair geopolitical take on what Netanyahu's grand goal in this is:

Netanyahu has stated complete elimination of Hamas is his goal, that cannot be achieved in my opinion for the same reasons the U.S. discovered carrying out the Afghan and Iraq wars against their own asymmetrical opponents. Therefore, Netanyahu's real goal in my opinion is to keep the conflict going until November. If the war is still going in November, it's a salient issue and Biden is put into a tough spot of any hard position he takes will be opposed by people that should be voting for him. In the event of a Trump victory, a new Trump administration would probably agree to Israel setting up a buffer zone in northern Gaza manned by Israeli military a la the Golan Heights with Syria. The buffer zone would be large enough to prevent Hamas incursions into Israel via underground tunnels or tube artillery. This would be almost universally condemned everywhere else, but Israel have clearly made the calculation that as long as the U.S. has their backs, no one else matters.

The future with a Biden victory in November is less clear, but I see Biden's clear both sides-ism he's displaying currently completely disappearing once the election is over, probably to drive harder bargains with Netanyahu. However, pro-Israel post-November will still have a clear majority in Congress regardless of election results, and I think that drives some of Netanyahu's calculus in U.S. relations is he knows Biden is outvoted by Congress, could maybe even override a veto, if a near 50/50 body you only need a third of Democrats to override a potential Biden veto.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Palestinian Terrorist Group Leadership: Part 2/3

Hamas Military Leadership:

Top-Tier:

- Mohammed Deif**+ - Head of Hamas’ Military Wing, Second in Command of Hamas in Gaza, Extreme hardliner - Hiding in Gaza

- Marwan Issa**+ - Second in Command of Hamas’ Military Wing, Third in Command of Hamas in Gaza, De facto Chief of Staff of Hamas’ Armed Forces, Mohammed Deif’s right hand man - Killed in Airstrike

- Ayman Nofal**+ - Commander of Hamas forces in Central Gaza, Co-founder of Hamas’ military wing, Creator of the Palestinian Joint Operations Room, Chief Hamas Military Liaison with other Palestinian Terrorist groups, Hardliner - Killed in Airstrike

- Ahmed Ghandour** - Commander of Hamas forces in Northern Gaza, Close ally of Mohammed Deif - Killed in Airstrike

- Mohammed Sinwar**+ - Commander of Hamas Forces in Southern Gaza, Yahya Sinwar’s right hand man, Hardliner - Hiding in Gaza

- Asem Abu Rakaba - Head of Hamas’ Air Force, Head of Hamas’ Drone Operations - Killed in Airstrike

Mid-Tier:

- Mohammad Shebana - Head of Hamas forces in Rafah - Hiding in Gaza

- Raad Thabat - Head of Hamas’ Weapons Production Unit, Hamas Head of Weapons Research, Member of Hamas’ Politburo - Killed in gunfight at the Al-Shaifa hospital complex

- Raad Saad - Chief of Operations for Hamas’ Military Wing - Hiding in Gaza

- Wael Rajeb - Deputy Commander of Hamas Forces in Northern Gaza - Killed in Airstrike

- Az Al-Din Haddad - Commander of Hamas forces in Gaza City (note: his troops were basically wiped out) - Hiding in Gaza

- Ayman Siam+# (spelling?) - Head of Hamas’ Mortar and Artillery units, Head of Hamas’ Rocket Array - Killed in Airstrike

- Rafah Salama - Commander of Hamas Forces in Khan Younis - Hiding in Gaza

- Razi Abu Tama’ah - Chief of Hamas’ Combat Support Array - Killed in Airstrike

- Nasim Abu Najina# - Commander of Hamas Forces in Beit Lahiya - Killed in Airstrike

- Ismail Siraj# - Commander of Hamas forces in Nuseirat - Killed in Airstrike

Low-Tier:

- Abu Obaida - Spokesman for Hamas’ Military Wing - In Hiding

- Ahmed Ali - Commander of Hamas’ Naval Forces - Killed in Airstrike

- Muhammad Atzar - Head of Hamas’ Anti-Tank forces - Killed in Airstrike

- Jehad Mheisen - Head of Hamas’ National Security Forces - Killed in Airstrike

- Ahmad Shamali - Deputy Commander of Hamas forces in Gaza City - Hiding in Gaza

- Taysir Mubasher - Commander of Hamas forces in northern Khan Younis - Killed in Airstrike

- Madhat Mubasher - Commander of Hamas forces in western Khan Younis - Killed in Airstrike

- Madhi Khuwara# - Commander of Hamas forces in southern Khan Younis - Hiding in Gaza

- Haitham Khuwajari - Commander of Hamas forces in and around the Shati Refugee Camp, Commander of Hamas forces in the Al-Shaifa Hospital - Killed in Airstrike

- Ibrahim Biari# - Commander of Hamas forces in Central Jabalia - Killed in Airstrike

- Wissam Farhat# - Commander of Hamas forces in Gaza City’s Shuja'iyya District - Killed in Airstrike

- Ibrahim Al-Saher - Commander of Hamas’ Anti-Tank Units - Killed in Airstrike

- Jaber Aziz - Commander of Hamas forces in Gaza City’s Sheikh Radwan District (note: His troops have basically been wiped out) - Hiding in Gaza


Conclusions: In contrast to Hamas’ political leadership, Israel has been highly successful at crippling Hamas’ military leadership.  This is not to say the war is over and Deif, Mohammed Sinwar, and a few other significant folks remain at-large to be sure.  However, the military wing has seen both numerous significant leaders killed as well as many of those who would typically be next in line to replace them.  

Hamas’ military wing is starting to run out of experienced, highly competent commanders and that’s not a problem you can fix simply by passing an office to some random replacement.  This is going to be a big problem for them, especially if Deif and/or Mohammed Sinwar are killed.  If both are taken out, then the entire top-tier leadership of Hamas’ military wing will be dead and that’s not nothing.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Notable Terrorist Leaders and their Status: Part 1/3

Palestinian Terrorist Group Leadership Status

...

Conclusions: We can see that Israel hasn’t been all that successful in taking out Hamas’ political leadership (at least in Gaza, they’ve had more success in Lebanon, but more on that later).  Al-Arouri was huge, but aside from that admittedly huge win, Israel has embarrassingly little to show for its efforts on the political front.  Admittedly, a lot of these guys operate outside Gaza under Qatari government protection (causing huge tension with the military wing), but even so, you’d expect more progress on this front after all this time.

Deaths in leadership just create openings for people lower on the totem pole to climb up to. If the goal is to completely eliminate Hamas as Israel have stated, whacking leadership makes them less effective, but does not eliminate them.

Therefore in line with what the stated Israeli goals are, focusing on leadership like you are in your post is at best an ancillary device toward overall war conduct and Israel's stated goals.

I actually disagree with you on that.  Hamas doesn’t have an endless supply of equally competent leaders.  No one has really been able to come remotely close to filling Al-Arouri’s shoes, so they’ve divided up his responsibilities among various significantly less competent individuals and the highly effective Lebanese Hamas wing he built has been largely dismantled and is now fast approaching a weak rump outfit whose continued existence depends entirely upon the goodwill of Hezbollah.  Hamas’ efforts to organize in the West Bank have also crumbled since his death.  Or take Marwan Issa - Hamas’ second most important military leader and the strategic brain of its military wing - after over a month they still haven’t even found someone to replace him afaik.  Ayman Nofal’s death also cost Hamas one of its most effective military commanders and arguably the best organizational mind in the group’s military wing.  

Making Hamas less effective does not completely eliminate them, and effectiveness is gained back over time. You might see this as a semantic argument but I don't considering it's Israel's stated #1 goal in this war is to prevent Hamas from ever attacking Israel again. It's the main problem I've had with Israeli strategy since a couple weeks into this war: what is Israel doing that is stopping Hamas operations against the country 10 years from now? Killing a leader now does nothing to stop that potential 2034 attack.

Cross-posting this from the main thread, here's my geopolitical take on what the real Israeli goal is since I think their stated goal is unachievable:

Was reading about this conflict yesterday combined with Russia-Ukraine from a geopolitical perspective and what this does to "rules-based order". Here's my amateur armchair geopolitical take on what Netanyahu's grand goal in this is:

Netanyahu has stated complete elimination of Hamas is his goal, that cannot be achieved in my opinion for the same reasons the U.S. discovered carrying out the Afghan and Iraq wars against their own asymmetrical opponents. Therefore, Netanyahu's real goal in my opinion is to keep the conflict going until November. If the war is still going in November, it's a salient issue and Biden is put into a tough spot of any hard position he takes will be opposed by people that should be voting for him. In the event of a Trump victory, a new Trump administration would probably agree to Israel setting up a buffer zone in northern Gaza manned by Israeli military a la the Golan Heights with Syria. The buffer zone would be large enough to prevent Hamas incursions into Israel via underground tunnels or tube artillery. This would be almost universally condemned everywhere else, but Israel have clearly made the calculation that as long as the U.S. has their backs, no one else matters.

The future with a Biden victory in November is less clear, but I see Biden's clear both sides-ism he's displaying currently completely disappearing once the election is over, probably to drive harder bargains with Netanyahu. However, pro-Israel post-November will still have a clear majority in Congress regardless of election results, and I think that drives some of Netanyahu's calculus in U.S. relations is he knows Biden is outvoted by Congress, could maybe even override a veto, if a near 50/50 body you only need a third of Democrats to override a potential Biden veto.

Don’t get me wrong, trying to eliminate Hamas completely is a fool’s errand.  However, I do think it is very possible to cripple Hamas long-term and reduce them to a nuisance for the foreseeable future rather than a serious threat.  In other words, you can do to Hamas what the US did to Al-Qaeda.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Notable Terrorist Leaders and their Status: Part 1/3

Palestinian Terrorist Group Leadership Status

...

Conclusions: We can see that Israel hasn’t been all that successful in taking out Hamas’ political leadership (at least in Gaza, they’ve had more success in Lebanon, but more on that later).  Al-Arouri was huge, but aside from that admittedly huge win, Israel has embarrassingly little to show for its efforts on the political front.  Admittedly, a lot of these guys operate outside Gaza under Qatari government protection (causing huge tension with the military wing), but even so, you’d expect more progress on this front after all this time.

Deaths in leadership just create openings for people lower on the totem pole to climb up to. If the goal is to completely eliminate Hamas as Israel have stated, whacking leadership makes them less effective, but does not eliminate them.

Therefore in line with what the stated Israeli goals are, focusing on leadership like you are in your post is at best an ancillary device toward overall war conduct and Israel's stated goals.

I actually disagree with you on that.  Hamas doesn’t have an endless supply of equally competent leaders.  No one has really been able to come remotely close to filling Al-Arouri’s shoes, so they’ve divided up his responsibilities among various significantly less competent individuals and the highly effective Lebanese Hamas wing he built has been largely dismantled and is now fast approaching a weak rump outfit whose continued existence depends entirely upon the goodwill of Hezbollah.  Hamas’ efforts to organize in the West Bank have also crumbled since his death.  Or take Marwan Issa - Hamas’ second most important military leader and the strategic brain of its military wing - after over a month they still haven’t even found someone to replace him afaik.  Ayman Nofal’s death also cost Hamas one of its most effective military commanders and arguably the best organizational mind in the group’s military wing.  

Making Hamas less effective does not completely eliminate them, and effectiveness is gained back over time. You might see this as a semantic argument but I don't considering it's Israel's stated #1 goal in this war is to prevent Hamas from ever attacking Israel again. It's the main problem I've had with Israeli strategy since a couple weeks into this war: what is Israel doing that is stopping Hamas operations against the country 10 years from now? Killing a leader now does nothing to stop that potential 2034 attack.

Cross-posting this from the main thread, here's my geopolitical take on what the real Israeli goal is since I think their stated goal is unachievable:

Was reading about this conflict yesterday combined with Russia-Ukraine from a geopolitical perspective and what this does to "rules-based order". Here's my amateur armchair geopolitical take on what Netanyahu's grand goal in this is:

Netanyahu has stated complete elimination of Hamas is his goal, that cannot be achieved in my opinion for the same reasons the U.S. discovered carrying out the Afghan and Iraq wars against their own asymmetrical opponents. Therefore, Netanyahu's real goal in my opinion is to keep the conflict going until November. If the war is still going in November, it's a salient issue and Biden is put into a tough spot of any hard position he takes will be opposed by people that should be voting for him. In the event of a Trump victory, a new Trump administration would probably agree to Israel setting up a buffer zone in northern Gaza manned by Israeli military a la the Golan Heights with Syria. The buffer zone would be large enough to prevent Hamas incursions into Israel via underground tunnels or tube artillery. This would be almost universally condemned everywhere else, but Israel have clearly made the calculation that as long as the U.S. has their backs, no one else matters.

The future with a Biden victory in November is less clear, but I see Biden's clear both sides-ism he's displaying currently completely disappearing once the election is over, probably to drive harder bargains with Netanyahu. However, pro-Israel post-November will still have a clear majority in Congress regardless of election results, and I think that drives some of Netanyahu's calculus in U.S. relations is he knows Biden is outvoted by Congress, could maybe even override a veto, if a near 50/50 body you only need a third of Democrats to override a potential Biden veto.

Don’t get me wrong, trying to eliminate Hamas completely is a fool’s errand.

That is what Netanyahu has defined success for Israel as! Therefore if Hamas still exists in some form after conclusion of this conflict, Israel will have failed its core objective and Hamas can claim victory simply by not being vanquished.

It's why I harp on what are the real goals of Ukraine and the West in its conflict with Russia. Ukraine's publicly stated goals are they take back control of all land they held pre-2014. Nothing that has happened the past 2 years shows we're any closer to that happening.

When it comes to war I believe in Clausewitzian philosophy, and the Israeli government are simply failing their military at the moment in that regard. What the hell's the high-level plan?

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but that is Netanyahu's problem.

The rest of us shouldn't indulge his delusions.