What does the Eric Cantor primary loss mean for 2016?

[BaconBacon96]

Well? Is immigration reform off the table? How rightward will the establishment candidates move? Is the Tea Party going to be more relevant than ever before?

Discuss.

[pbrower2a]

It means that the GOP is becoming even more right-wing and authoritarian.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Rejuvenation of a Tea Party base that was starting to get dispirited? The only real scalp they had seemed to be able to claim this year was Thad Cochran, who is basically a doddering grandfatherly guy. Otherwise, it seemed like a wash; with Conryn, Graham etc. all safe as houses. Now the establishment will sure  be throwing bones to the base. Perhaps Alexander of Tennessee will be decapitated in light of increased base optimism.

(Immigration reform was always a no-hoper, but this will make it slightly even more dead)

[Mechaman]

It means that the Tea Party has officially declared war against the business wing of the party.  It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

EDIT: I of course am not saying that the Tea Party is proposing anything remotely left of centre, just that the economic and immigration agendas they are pushing are naturally harmful to the business interests in the party.

[⛄]

Wow!

Will Cantor be the Lugar of 2014?

Does his loss have anything to do with his religious affiliation?

[windjammer]

Wow!

Will Cantor be the Lugar of 2014?

Does his loss have anything to do with his religious affiliation?

I know we can say a lot of things about the Republican Party, but this is definitely not an antisemit party.

[Mister Mets]

I think the impact is negligible.

Congressional primaries are very low turnout affairs. National tea party groups sat this one out, so they can't take much credit. This is kind of the opposite of a presidential primary, with the locals punishing a national figure. This was the tea party operating on a grassroots local level.

The tea party has been effective at winning a few upsets, but that's not enough to win a presidential primary.

[⛄]

Wow!

Will Cantor be the Lugar of 2014?

Does his loss have anything to do with his religious affiliation?

I know we can say a lot of things about the Republican Party, but this is definitely not an antisemit party.

I was actually referring to the Tea Party.

[Simfan34]

Wow!

Will Cantor be the Lugar of 2014?

Does his loss have anything to do with his religious affiliation?

I know we can say a lot of things about the Republican Party, but this is definitely not an antisemit party.

I was actually referring to the Tea Party.

It has to do with the bigotry of the Tea Party, yes.

[Phony Moderate]

It gives Cantor a clear opening for the Republican presidential nomination, obvs.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

People are angry, but we knew that already.

[Likely Voter]

Immigration almost killed off McCain in 2008 and helped Romney beat back Perry and Gingrich in 2012. It is going to be a BFD in 2016 because the GOP House probably isn't going to touch it.

It is an interesting test for Bush. His instinct is to lead his party into the future on this, but does he have the stomach for such a fight? He hasn't really competed in a GOP primary since the early 90s.

[Never]

The lack of support for immigration reform in the GOP might hurt Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, but it wouldn't take either out of the running by any means. Most other plausible Republican presidential candidates probably won't be affected by Cantor's loss.

[Maxwell]

It means Rubio is dead in the water. Cantor didn't take a position (kind of was just if Obama wants it, I don't), Graham was pro-reform. Cantor lost, Graham won.

[pbrower2a]

Nothing obvious. Eric Cantor is but one  of 435.   The most significant question is whether it will result in a change of the majority.

 

[Never]

Nothing obvious. Eric Cantor is but one  of 435.   The most significant question is whether it will result in a change of the majority.

 

A change of the majority this year, or 2016?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

It means that the GOP is becoming even more right-wing and authoritarian.

lol

The Tea Party has lost every major primary this year. CNN's headline on their website a few weeks ago was "Is the Tea Party dead???"

[DINGO Joe]

Probably makes Virginia a little easier for the Dems in 2016.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Rejuvenation of a Tea Party base that was starting to get dispirited? The only real scalp they had seemed to be able to claim this year was Thad Cochran, who is basically a doddering grandfatherly guy. Otherwise, it seemed like a wash; with Conryn, Graham etc. all safe as houses. Now the establishment will sure  be throwing bones to the base. Perhaps Alexander of Tennessee will be decapitated in light of increased base optimism.

(Immigration reform was always a no-hoper, but this will make it slightly even more dead)

Alexander is safer than one can imagine. But Pat Roberts of Kansas is in some danger, and we haven't had that primary yet - so if this created real energy among the tea party, look to KS.

[Ogre Mage]

Prior to Cantor's loss I thought immigration reform had a 5% of passing the House.  The chance is now 0%.

[dmmidmi]

I think the impact is negligible.

Congressional primaries are very low turnout affairs.

Totally agree.

National tea party groups sat this one out, so they can't take much credit. This is kind of the opposite of a presidential primary, with the locals punishing a national figure. This was the tea party operating on a grassroots local level.

I'm not sold on this part. Talk radio was pretty active in promoting David Brat.

The tea party has been effective at winning a few upsets, but that's not enough to win a presidential primary.

Totally agree here, too.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans need both the Corporate wing and the tea Party wing to win  elections in most states and districts.

I thought in 2010 that the two wings would eventually turn on each other -- Corporate Rs distrusting the populism inherent in the Tea Party and Tea Party types recognizing that Corporate America will not abandon its profitable businesses in booze, gambling, and soft-core porn. About all that they have in common is contempt for liberalism. 

[windjammer]

It means that the GOP is becoming even more right-wing and authoritarian.

lol

The Tea Party has lost every major primary this year. CNN's headline on their website a few weeks ago was "Is the Tea Party dead???"

Really? Tom Cotton isn't an extremist?

[SNJ1985]

It means that the GOP is becoming even more right-wing and authoritarian.

lol

The Tea Party has lost every major primary this year. CNN's headline on their website a few weeks ago was "Is the Tea Party dead???"

Really? Tom Cotton isn't an extremist?

''Extremism'' is subjective.

[Vosem]

It means nothing. Eric Cantor's loss had nothing to do with immigration reform, whose chances of passing were zero before the loss and remain so. Unless he runs for another office or becomes a prominent talking-head, within a few years Cantor will be forgotten. While a remarkable upset, in terms of effect on anything else it was a big nothingburger.