US House Redistricting: Michigan

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I agree with Brittain33 that the problem with your maps (masterfully made as they are) is that they assume Republicans will always be willing to "take one for the team," as needed.  You've got to ask yourself, if Rogers has really good connections in the legislature and wants a certain district (more or less) what's stopping him from screwing over another pubbie?  If the Ohio Republicans are likely going to give Tiberi, Stivers, and Austria special treatment, is it really that hard to imagine them doing so by throwing someone in another part of the state under the bus (like Johnson or Renacci who don't really have any connections or influence).  I could go on, but I'm sure you get my point.  Stranger things have certainly happened, and I'm not saying this will happen everywhere, but I'd be shocked if all major Republican maps (in states with high gerrymander potential) were anywhere near as aggressive and single-mindedly focused on efficiency as yours are.  On the other hand, who am I to pass judgment on the work of the "gorgeous octopus"  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You seem to have invented an extra Republican who would be screwed over by a failure to eliminate both Peters and Levin. There is a quite neat map that combines Peters and Levin in a safe Dem seat while leaving everyone else (relatively) safe. Not sure Rogers can really be considered all that safe as long as Lansing is in his district, but that's really his only option short of a fight with McCotter. Did make McCotter quite safe, however.

This is what the Michigan GOP will do, more or less (and maybe with a total redesign in NW Michigan; I did heavily rearrange the districts up there).

I may be completely off here, but wouldn't Walberg be (somewhat) vulnerable, especially since Schauer is considering a rematch?  I don't know if this is still a problem since you removed the Washtenaw part of the district, but Monroe county will probably be pretty opposed to Walberg (though maybe not a different Republican).   

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yup, Walberg is not in a good position, undoubtedly, but he's surrounded by marginal Republican seats already. Can't make him safer without putting Rogers or Upton in a D-leaning seat. He's also a lot less popular in the state legislature than the well-connected Rogers and Upton, at least in part because, unlike them, he can't hold a marginal seat.

In any case, Monroe County is only 51% Obama, R+2, so I don't see why it's such a problem for Walberg. Plus, he dropped the more Democratic Eaton County.


On further consideration, though, that map might not be safe enough for Rogers, as it loses Republican parts of outer Oakland for more Democratic Eaton County (and also some rural parts of Shiawassee, which are probably GOP). Not sure how to shore him up without creating a lot more county splits, though. Maybe I could run him into outer Oakland and use the extra space in McCotter's seat to get rid of the split of Lapeer.

I think Walberg might actually run somewhat worse than McCain in Monroe (and the district for that matter).  However, I agree that this is more or less what will probably happen (and that if a Republican has to be made uncomfortable, it will be Walberg).  In any event it sounds like Monroe is less Democratic than I thought, so this map should work fine (especially since you seem to have figured out a way to make Rogers safe).