National Tracking Poll Thread

[MorningInAmerica]

For 2nd day in a row, Romney-Ryan lead Obama-Biden on both daily tracking polls.

Gallup:
Romney - 47%
Obama- 45%

Rasmussen:
Romney - 47%
Obama - 43%

Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st. Looks like the tracking polls are picking up on a slight Ryan bounce. Also interesting to see how close the two tracking polls are to each other.

[MorningInAmerica]

Where's that Ryan bounce they keep talking about?

It was there. Now it appears to be gone on Rasmussen, but still exists on Gallup. But either way, not sure how much a VP bounce really matters in the end anyway. Remember a guy named Jack  Kemp in 1996? Sarah Palin in 2008? Read this: http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-bob-dole-bounce.html

[MorningInAmerica]

Let's not forget there were a few polls suddenly with big Obama leads right before Ryan was announced. Romney was having a bad few weeks, and the momentum seems to have shifted to neutral again.

That's exactly right. Remember these polls (from RCP) that came out in the days prior to the Ryan announcement?

[MorningInAmerica]

Gallup and Rasmussen didn't show those bumps so no, Obama shouldn't be worried. It was only the National Polls that showed it, not the Daily Trackers. And Nate Silver says that Gallup has been a bit more Republican-a leaning this cycle for some odd reason. Usually their quite accurate.

So far there is really no evidence of a significant Ryan bounce.  Comparing just the two tracking polls to a week ago Romney is up 2 in Gallup but has dropped 5 in Rasmussen, so the net effect is a negative bounce. Nate Silver's analysis showed about a 0.8% bounce looking at all the state and tracking polls as of Thursday (it would be lower now due to Ras tracking).

We wont know for sure until before the RNC when we should see other polls out and we can compare to pre-Ryan

Did you guys just completely miss this?:

That's exactly right. Remember these polls (from RCP) that came out in the days prior to the Ryan announcement?

And I don't think anyone is arguing there's been a significant bounce. But for that matter, Christian Heinze makes a great point that VP bounces certainly don't predict future election outcomes. So bounce or not, I'm not really sure that it matters. http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-bob-dole-bounce.html

[MorningInAmerica]

bounce can only be tracked apples to apples. You are comparing the tracking polls to those other polls. But Obama was underwater in both tracking polls before Ryan, they were already polling  more pro Romney. As I said, we will know if he has a bounce when the other polls come in for comparison, but looking at JUST the tracking polls, Obama is up in one and down in the other. On average more up than down. That is just the facts.

really there just isn't enough data to determine a bounce yet.  What data there is (when you look at apples to apples state polls) shows a small bounce of less than 1% according to
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/aug-16-why-im-not-buying-the-romney-rally/

we will know more in a few days i suspect

You're either making stuff up, or just misinformed.

For 2nd day in a row, Romney-Ryan lead Obama-Biden on both daily tracking polls.

Gallup:
Romney - 47%
Obama- 45%

Rasmussen:
Romney - 47%
Obama - 43%

Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st. Looks like the tracking polls are picking up on a slight Ryan bounce. Also interesting to see how close the two tracking polls are to each other.

[MorningInAmerica]

Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st.

What exactly is hard to comprehend about that?

[MorningInAmerica]

Romney was polling at 46% the day Ryan was announced and he had a +2 over Obama. He now has a -2. Are you really arguing that Rasmussen is showing a Ryan bump?

If you would read the thread you're posting in, you'd see that that's not at all what I'm saying.

It was there. Now it appears to be gone on Rasmussen, but still exists on Gallup. But either way, not sure how much a VP bounce really matters in the end anyway. Remember a guy named Jack  Kemp in 1996? Sarah Palin in 2008? Read this: http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-bob-dole-bounce.html

[MorningInAmerica]

Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.

Very true. Romney's been at 47%, and Obama at 45% on Gallup for the last 7 straight days. Remarkably stable as of late on Gallup.

[MorningInAmerica]

Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.

Very true. Romney's been at 47%, and Obama at 45% on Gallup for the last 7 straight days. Remarkably stable as of late on Gallup.

Tuesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    44  (+1)
Romney    45 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

8th day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47-45%.

[MorningInAmerica]

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

[MorningInAmerica]

At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.

That's true. Romney hit 47% 3 days after the Ryan pick and hasn't budged since.

[MorningInAmerica]

Its amazingly flat at Gallup...its impressive hold for Romney.

Especially considering that before the Ryan pick, Obama held the lead on Gallup for 2 months with few exceptions.

[MorningInAmerica]

The Gallup flatline finally unflattens.  Could Akin actually be having an effect? We will see if this is a trend or blip

Was thinking the same thing when I saw the numbers today.

[MorningInAmerica]

Unless they were conducting this poll as late as 11PM last night (which I doubt), then today's 43-43% TIE is probably based on the strength of Ann Romney and Chris Christie's speech alone. Assuming they are using a 3 day rolling average, only 1 night of surveys for today's update would have been conducted after Ann and Christie's speeches. Any bounce by the Ryan speech probably won't be picked up until today/this evening's surveys. Which means it will show up in tomorrow's update. Likewise, we won't see any of the effects of Mitt Romney's speech tonight until Saturday morning's update.

[MorningInAmerica]

DAY 4:

Obama - 42% (-4 pts since 1st poll release Monday)
Romney- 44% (+2 pts since 1st poll release Monday)

Reuters reporter tweets this: https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/241274092379070465

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's a net change of +6 points in Romney's favor since Monday, and Romney hasn't even given his speech yet.

Question: might it be more accurate to update the title of this thread to reflect the current tracking numbers?

[MorningInAmerica]

is this an ongoing thing or will it stop at the end of the DNC?

I'm not sure. Though we can never have enough tracking polls!

[MorningInAmerica]

Good idea. Hopefully it won't disappear post-DNC.

[MorningInAmerica]

What a surprise, Rasmussen is already hard at work on a Romney bounce but Gallup isn't showing anything. lol.

Why would it take that long for a bounce to appear JJ? We should be able to tell by the weekend or early next week...though it is labor day weekend. Is that what you meant?

Did you guys just miss this, or are you ignoring it for the sake of your argument?

Thursday:

Rasmussen: tied
Obama     45 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

Ipsos/Reuters: Romney +2
Obama     42  (-1)
Romney     44  (+1)


afternoon edit, added Ipsos/Reuters

Out of the 3 tracking polls, 2 show a bounce. Rasmussen has shown a net +4 point bounce from Monday for Mitt Romney. He trailed Obama that day by 3, 47-44%, and now leads by 1, 45-44%

Reuters Ipsos has shown a more significant bounce, with Romney gaining a net 6 points from Monday (when he trailed Obama 46-42%. As of yesterday, he leads 44-42%, and that's without taking into account last night's speech).

So as you see there is certainly evidence to suggest that there is some degree of a bounce. So what were y'all saying again?

[MorningInAmerica]

Still looking. Why in the WORLD would Ipsos stop the tracking poll on the day after the nominee's speech? Not saying they did stop it, but wondering why we got a new release yesterday at 4:30PM EST, and not today. There's bound to be a better explanation.

[MorningInAmerica]

So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

[MorningInAmerica]

So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

Read my post about how Rasmussen manipulated their August target sample to show a sudden "record Republican party ID", which in turn makes their target sample for their daily tracking poll more Republican too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140899.msg3407250#msg3407250

Again, that "manipulating" statement is purely subjective, though stated by you as fact. Just because you don't like Rasmussen doesn't mean they're manipulating numbers. In fact, Nate Silver doesn't find them doing all that much "manipulating" at all. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

[MorningInAmerica]

So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

Read my post about how Rasmussen manipulated their August target sample to show a sudden "record Republican party ID", which in turn makes their target sample for their daily tracking poll more Republican too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140899.msg3407250#msg3407250

Again, that "manipulating" statement is purely subjective, though stated by you as fact. Just because you don't like Rasmussen doesn't mean they're manipulating numbers. In fact, Nate Silver doesn't find them doing all that much "manipulating" at all. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

Actually, yes he does.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Uhh..you're citing an article that is TWO YEARS OLD. I'm citing one that is 2 months old. Nice try though, Clinton96. I have difficulty taking seriously someone who will actually take the time to super-impose a pic of Schweitzer and Cuomo in their signature.




 note the dates.

[MorningInAmerica]

Those articles are not comparing the same thing. The 2012 link on the house effect (individual pollster difference from the polling average) is not the same thing as comparing a pollster's results to the election results (the 2010 link).

Obviously we can't compare the 2012 polls to the results yet as the election isn't over but the polling average is not the same thing as the election results.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=155124.0

Ras is a well known troll. You don't have to look past his Senate polls to see that. Just look at Florida: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2012#Polling_2

August 15 - Nelson +7
July 9 - Mack +9
April 25 - Nelson +11
March 13 - Mack +7
February 13 - Tie
November 17 (2011) - Mack +4

So, that link you provided to "prove" that Rasmussen is a "known troll" would also indicate that Quinnipiac is a troll (a top rated pollster by Silver's standard), Mason Dixon (another good poll), and PPP (which I'm sure, you just think is great).

[MorningInAmerica]

That pretty little pic is about 2 years old. But of course, you don't want to note that.

[MorningInAmerica]

Just curious...Do you doubt PPP's credibility?