Trump set to propose paid family leave in budget proposal

[Skill and Chance]

Presidents propose, Congress disposes.  This ain't going nowhere, and wouldn't even if Trump wasn't such a wounded duck.

Eh, this is something that Democrats could get their caucus to unanimously support if they wanted to.  So all you need are 30ish moderate R's in the House to vote to add into the next deal to keep the govt funded.  As far as the senate goes, Heller and Collins would be crazy to oppose this and Dems would be crazy to filibuster (if the filibuster applied to the rules for whatever it was attached to).  That means they just need one of Gardner, Tillis, or even Flake or Perdue to get nervous about backlash from suburban women in 2018/2020.  Even though she is electorally safer than them, Murkowski is probably the 3rd best target for this.

I think this is modest enough to pass if attached to a budget deal and if Ryan and McConnell let it come to the floor.  Something like 1 yr primary caregiver, 3 months other parent would be DOA though.  Which raises an interesting point: Why didn't Dems do this in 2009?  They could probably have gotten 12 weeks back then if they wanted to try.

[Skill and Chance]

You are pretty clueless when it comes to most stuff so it's probably a good statement - Agree to disagree !

PNM is far from clueless, Shadows.

Apology dear PNM, just useless banter !

I am pretty sure he is not apt in understanding the direction 4 years from now, so it was more to that !

Thank you, Virginia.

Shadows, please explain to me how a Democratic President would be able to get through FPL? Even in a unified government? There's zero chance Republicans wouldn't try and kill it by filibuster. A Republican President is by far the best chance such a proposal has of passing, at least in the short- and medium-run, as they'll conceivably be able to get otherwise-no Republican votes and most Democrats on board.

Not that I expect this to pass, though. Knowing Trump, he'll probably attach it to a bill to gut something else, making it dead on arrival anyway.

A Dem trifecta with at least 55 senators would get this done easily.  They might even be able to get 12 weeks primary caregiver leave.  The advantage of having Trump propose it is that it's easier to get some buy in from a substantial number of R's who are more concerned about social issues than economics. 

[Skill and Chance]

To be honest I think the Dems will kill the filibuster the next time they have a trifecta with 55+ senate seats (and that might happen in 2020/2024). I think the GOP would have killed it if they had more senate seats and a competent and/or popular Republican president.

Actually I think in that scenario the GOP would still be hesitant to abolish the filibuster. The filibuster ultimately is to the benefit of the party of small government and a gop that had a larger senate majority and/or a more popular president, would definitely fancy their chances of having a stronger long term advantage in the senate.

I don't think the legislative filibuster will be abolished outright anytime soon, but I do think cloture will go from 60 to 55 the next time one party has 55 or more seats.  It should eventually go from 55 to 50+VP, but that will take at least 20 years IMO, maybe longer.