MA Special Election Watch Thread

[RogueBeaver]

He wouldn't run so soon, if at all.

[RogueBeaver]

Howie Carr hints Brown will run, but just nudges and winks, nothing remotely confirmed.

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/columnists/howie_carr/2012/12/one_thing%E2%80%99s_certain_he%E2%80%99ll_be_back

[RogueBeaver]

No sure thing, and we don't know who Patrick will appoint.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=20ECBC96-82CF-4E43-9EAD-40E737785FF2

[RogueBeaver]

Patrick is leaning towards an interim appointment, McGovern says he won't run and he expects a contested primary.

http://bostonglobe.com/metro/2012/12/15/democrats-face-dilemma-how-hold-onto-kerry-senate-seat/khjBeJqYL4rlfsUs5N3A2L/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

I'm sure PPP will do a poll soon enough.

[RogueBeaver]

Dukakis won't take it, doubts the Dems will switch the law again.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/12/17/michael-dukakis-will-not-be-interim-senator-if-kerry-resigns/

[RogueBeaver]

Brown supports AWB, said to be prepping run.

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/12/19/senator-elect-elizabeth-warren-backs-assault-weapon-ban/Qj3ZdGwBRUlecaFMo6C4UP/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

WBUR poll shows Brown with 58% approval and leading Dem Congressmen by 17 points.

http://www.wbur.org/2012/12/20/wbur-special-senate-election-poll

If we have to go through this again, Begich and Landrieu had better win their states.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't expect it to be more than 5 points either way, but still nice to start out like this. If the Dems are smart they go for Lynch to aim for the Southie vote... but it'll probably be another demolition derby like 2010.

[RogueBeaver]

He's often brought up but always said no- said no to running for both the Lieberman and Dodd seats in CT. Plus there's already another Kennedy serving in MA, even if he won't try upgrading for a couple of cycles, if ever.

Resident Bay Staters: Which Dems do you expect to run?

[RogueBeaver]

Kinda amazing that Markey's been serving for nearly 40 years and most Bay Staters have never heard of him.

Also, Brown is trying to install one of his aides as state GOP chair- whose chief qual is that she's an aide.

[RogueBeaver]

Frank's open to an interim appointment.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/12/frank-not-saying-no-to-senate-appointment-152554.html?hp=r4

[RogueBeaver]

The progressive Dems will throw up a challenger or 2 to Lynch and we'll get another demolition derby. Brown runs the loser (s) attack ads against the winner.

[RogueBeaver]

Nate Silver rates Brown's odds.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/22/us/politics/playing-the-odds-for-a-scott-brown-senate-comeback.html?gwh=8EC41DA2E7F36DA5D255332DDCFF2917

[RogueBeaver]

Brown's getting encouragement from his fellow Pub senators.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=D690C5BB-A743-4188-8411-DF5F9BE6D05B

[RogueBeaver]

Ted Jr. isn't running.

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/report-ted-kennedy-jr-wont-run-85460.html?hp=f3

[RogueBeaver]

So a demolition derby between Markey, Capuano and Lynch?

[RogueBeaver]

Who'd have an advantage in that primary? Capuano got thumped by Coakley and Lynch is too conservative for liberals, so Markey?

[RogueBeaver]

As expected, Affleck takes a pass.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/12/affleck-passes-on-senate-run-152759.html?hp=l2

The Dems will go all-out to hold this seat. The Obamas and Clintons will be $$$ and campaigning for the nominee... whoever it is.

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/obama-vows-help-electing-john-kerrys-successor-85439.html

[RogueBeaver]

Plus he won't have the 51 tag that he had in 2012.

[RogueBeaver]

Markey's in.

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/12/27/rep-markey-run-senate-special-election/1aidfQ9YeNT0xXXPnWuS8I/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Brown also considering Beacon Hill?

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/columnists/joe_battenfeld/2013/01/dems_fear_scott_may_run_gov

[RogueBeaver]

He also took a shot at Markey over residency.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/scott-brown-prods-ed-markey-on-massachusetts-residency-85679.html?hp=f3

[RogueBeaver]

Capuano and Downing still considering a race. Downing and Brown will decide in the next 2 weeks.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/top_democrats_try_to_clear_senate_field_for_markey_but_others_considering-220504-1.html?pos=opolh

[RogueBeaver]

Or just rerun anti-Markey D ads. Downing apparently plans on running a positive campaign if he does jump but like 2012 I expect them to start taking shots at each other eventually. We'll see how much of a demolition derby this turns out to be.