MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL @ people who think Brown would be the favorite to win. 2010 was a massive upset, against an absolutely awful dem candidate and in a climate of extreme unpopularity at the time. That's not going to happen again easily.

That's Likely-D at best, Safe-D if a big guy runs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mark my words: Brown won't win, unless Obama's approvals massively plummet in the upcoming months.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mark my words: Brown won't win, unless Obama's approvals massively plummet in the upcoming months.

Why not? He remained popular even as he lost, the special election turnout will be more Republican friendly (perhaps even to the extent of having voted for him in 2012), the Senate majority isn't up for grabs and Warren was a strong candidate.

1. He only won by 5 points in the best possible climate and against the most incompetent candidate ever.
2. He had the benefit of incumbency in 2012, now he'll bear the burden of a lost election.
3. He might not be outright unpopular, but he still seriously damaged himself with his 2012 campaign.
4. This is a federal office in Massachusetts, for Pete's sake. They just don't want Republicans there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I still don't buy Brown winning this. I'm not used to bold predictions, but I feel like I'll make an exception this time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm with Mr. X. Brown's not gonna win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God, please not the primary clusterf**k...

[Antonio the Sixth]

To be fair, he's not the only one being fairly deluded about Brown's awesome awesomeness.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Unions not endorsing yet.

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/truth_squad/2013/01/markey_gets_thumbs_down_union_big

“The field is weak at best, and in a special election beating Brown will take a lot of work and a lot of money,” he said, adding that U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry’s potential confirmation as secretary of state is likely to send Brown right back to Capitol Hill. “This scenario is man-made and it shows the lack of respect that those people have in Washington for the amount of work we did in the Brown-Warren election. To re-create the scenario is a slap in the face to all the people who volunteered their time, door-to-door and made donations.”

The bitterness must be pretty significant out there for him to slam the president like that to the press.

It makes absolutely no sense though. As if it was Obama's fault that his most deserving pick for SoS (excluding Rice) happened to be a Senator form MA.

If "beating Brown will take a lot of work and a lot of money", then stop whining and give Markey the work and money he needs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It makes absolutely no sense though. As if it was Obama's fault that his most deserving pick for SoS (excluding Rice) happened to be a Senator form MA.

Why would one think so? "Deserving" is a completely inappropriate word for positions this powerful, anyways.

Sorry, I was looking for "qualified" and for some reason could not find that word at the time. Point is, Kerry was a good pick.

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Why should they? Markey won't give them anything back. He'll be mostly useless to them, not doing anything they want unless the Democratic Senate leadership tells him to. Lynch, on the other hand, is their man and working class.[/quote]

What would Lynch do for the working class that Markey wouldn't? That's a honest question, I know very little about those politicians.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see. Anyway, my point was that the Unions' main interest is always to have the Democrat candidate (whoever it is) win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A lot of Republicans there are pro-labor.

Even at the federal level though? I think it's pretty safe to assume any Congressional Republican is going to vote against the working class' interests >95% of the time - or be thrown out of the party.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A lot of Republicans there are pro-labor.

Even at the federal level though? I think it's pretty safe to assume any Congressional Republican is going to vote against the working class' interests >95% of the time - or be thrown out of the party.

A full 0 of 0 New England Republicans in the U.S. House support working class interests. But I suppose that's tempered a bit by the fact that all 0 of 0 New England Republicans in the U.S. House actually support unions' and workers' rights.

The point is, is this even hypothetically possible? I highly doubt that, and Brown is a good illustration.

[Antonio the Sixth]

New MassINC poll shows strong Brown lead:

In the general election, what if the Republican party’s candidate were Scott Brown? Would you vote for Republican Scott Brown or for the Democratic party’s candidate? Order rotated,

44% - Scott Brown
36% - Democratic party’s candidate

In the general election, what if the Democratic party’s candidate were Ed Markey and the Republican party’s candidate were Scott Brown? Would you be more likely to vote for Republican Scott Brown or Democrat Ed Markey? Order rotated,

53% - Scott Brown
31% - Ed Markey

http://031d482.netsolhost.com/WordPress/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Topline-01-13-Q1-Omnibus.pdf

Favorables:

55-32 favorable - Brown
24-17 favorable - Markey
19-14 favorable - Lynch
18-15 favorable - Capuano

Seems that name recognition is the key. Not exactly good news for Brown...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Scott Brown is an odd duck. Always claiming he's more important than he really is.   Claims he has meetings with kings and queens, seen classified photo of Osama bin Laden, was heading back to DC because he had inside information that president made some sort of fiscal cliff proposal (he didn't at that point) I understand why many people in my state like Chris Christie, I don't get the attraction to Scott Brown.

Yeah, like many other fake moderates, he's painfully overrated.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ahem.. what?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are there any explanations yet about the "Bqhatevwr" incident?

[Antonio the Sixth]

PPP # out: Brown leads 48/45 against Markey, 48/39 against Lynch- the gap is mostly name ID. Markey leads Lynch 52-19 in a primary.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/brownmarkey-would-start-out-as-toss-up.html

Oh look, Brown's massive, insurmountable lead is down to 3 points... By the time the GE campaign kicks in, Markey will be comfortable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good to see he's got more political sense than his supporters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Weld is probably out of politics for good.  I'm sticking with Brown.

You may be sticking with Brown, but Brown isn't sticking with Brown.

It's going to be either Weld or somebody I've never heard of, and I think the latter is somewhat more likely. Tisei is the only other even remote possibility I can conceive of at this point.

WHY is he not runnng!?!?!?  Does he WANT to kill off the last Yankee Republicans!?!?!?  CURSE YOU SCOTT BROWN!!!!!!  X0
And Kalwejt, 2010 wasn't entirely a fluke.  Up until the debates in 2012, it looked like Brown was going to win reelection.  Then after he crahses and burned in the debates, so did his chances.  Elizabeth Warren was a virtual unknown early in the campaign, too.  Granted, she still won, but she had to overcome some serious odds to do it,

Brown was trailing long before the debates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

krazen also called Elizabeth Warren crazy and went on and on about how she would lose. We see how that election turned out.

Krazy calling someone crazy is priceless.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm hearing Ann Romney... Too soon?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2272551/Ann-Romney-run-Senate-Massachusetts-Republicans-urging-Mitts-wife-make-bid-higher-office.html

Oh God that would be HILARIOUS.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course the House will almost certainly stay Republican until 2018 at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just when it was getting entertaining...

[Antonio the Sixth]

In unrelated news, Scott Brown was, in fact, not drunk when he wrote those bizarre tweets.

Bqhatevwr