Kentucky 2003

[JNB]

  Bush did as well as could be expected in N. Virginia in 2000, he took a plurality of votes in Fairfax county, and won N. Va overall with 50% of the vote. While its around 10% less than what his father did 10 years before, considering the demographic changes that have taken place there, that is not a bad result at all. Where Bush under performed was in Norfolk-Virginia Beach region of the state and in rural portions of the state. In part due to t he fact black turnout was a bit higher in 2000 than it was in 88, and also in part the vote of white Evangelicals was depressed in 2000. The last minuite DUI busienss really hurt Bush in this group.

[JNB]

 Realpolitik, the GOP in the VA state house went from 65 seats(64 GOP + 1 independent who votes with the GOP) to 62 seats, one of those seats lost was a mostly black district in Norfolk gained by a fluke, and the other two were in Fairfax county, both barely lost. The GOP in VA did gain ground in the VA state senate, by gaining 1 seat, and almost gained 2 more.

  Realpolitik, the Dems have little chance at winning VA next year, and the VA Republican party is advanced enough to put in place the 72 get out the vote plan. You also need to look at the details, and not just accept spin at face value. The GOP still has close to super majority status in the VA state house, and again, I gave you the factors that in 200o that led to the underformance of the Bush ticket.