Redban
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,981
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« on: June 21, 2016, 09:33:03 AM » |
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Tough state. Trump is better served targeting PA, MI, WI, and NH before he comes here. If he can, he should also look into Minnesota, Oregon, Maine's 2nd district, and Washington before he comes here too.
In 2012, for example, Romney won all of Virginia minus NOVA by over 90,000 votes (versus 1,500 or so for McCain in 2008). However, Romney gained nothing compared to McCain in NOVA; hence, he lost the state. That NOVA didn't shift to Romney in 2012 indicates that NOVA is inelastic.
Therefore, Trump can only max out the votes in all of Virginia minus NOVA, and there are not enough of those voters to overcome the sizable 200,000 deficit that NOVA will create.
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