Canadian by-elections, 2019

[Poirot]

Does immigration / multiculturalism fall in the socially conservative category ? I was going to say maybe the People's party candidate in Burnaby is socially conservative but Bernier and probably what he wants his party to be is not. I was thinking on issues like abortion, same sex marriage, marijuana.

For Outremiont, a former NDP strategist says if the NDP finishes with a strong second place, that would already be a win for the party.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ndp-byelection-outremont-1.5028818

He doesn't give a percentage result I'm thinking around 25% would be a good result. It's more than half of the score in the last election and there is no leader, or well known person boost. The party is polling less than half of the result province wide.  Mainstreet Research had the NDP at 13% on the island of Montreal in last week's poll with presumably a large margin of error, so 25% would be double that number. In his last projection qc125 website has the NDP below 20% in Outremont, with the margin could be low 20s. The article talks about the environment being a concern for some voters. The Greens are running a well known environmentalist. He had a good result in the Saint-Laurent byelection, the party seems to be polling higher than before so he could do well.

[Poirot]

BQ will remain in third in Outremont behind NDP

Just for information and maybe to compare, in 2015 the Bloc finished fourth with 8.4% behind CPC 9.5%. Mulcair won with 44%, LPC got 33.5%.

[Poirot]

Burnaby South 140 polls
NDP 38.5-26-22-11

Which will be the first to finish reporting?

I will guess Burnaby, start last finish first

[Poirot]

Now unlike other provinces, Quebec's provincial elections are a different beast so you cannot automatically assume those who voted CAQ will go Conservative, PLQ Liberal, QS NDP, and PQ BQ, its a bit more complicated but it can at least give one an idea of the ideological orientations as the 2018 provincial election was probably the first since the Quiet Revolution fought more on philosophical orientation as opposed to separatism vs. federalism.

In its poll done in late January Léger had numbers on federal vote according to provincial vote. At that time the federal numbers were:
PLC 39, CPC 21, BQ 21, NDP 8, PPC 6, Green 5

Provincial vote: CAQ 42, PLQ, 22, PQ 18, QS 15, Other 3

Data on the second page
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Politique-QC-publication-le-2-f%C3%A9vrier-2019.pdf

CAQ voters: LPC 28, CPC 29, BQ 16, NDP 6, PPC 6, Green 1
PLQ voters: LPC 75, CPC 13, BQ 0, NDP 2, PPC 4, Green 3
PQ voters: LPC 14, CPC 13, BQ 54, NDP 7, PPC 2, Green 3
QS voters: LPC 24, CPC 7, BQ 23, NDP 18, PPC 3, Green 12

At that time the NDP was behind the Liberals and Bloc among QS voters, which might explain why it was in single digit in that poll. NDP and QS seem to share some organizers and volunteers, in Montreal anyway.

[Poirot]

Upcoming by-elections:

Nov 24: Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval, QC (municipal)

Former Olympic sprinter Bruny Surin is running in that race.