Puerto Rico statehood referendum 2020

[GALeftist]

Not an expert but I suspect it'll pass for a couple reasons: 1. The 2017 referendum had 23% turnout, and very nearly 100% of those who voted voted for yes. This time it's the same time as a general, and the last general had 55% turnout. If we assume this general has a similar turnout and everyone who voted for yes in 2017 votes yes again, yes could theoretically lose 84% of those who didn't show in 2017 and squeak out a victory. My hunch is that yes will win a more significant portion of those who didn't turn out, which should seal the deal. 2. If the PPD thought they had the numbers to reject statehood, I expect they wouldn't have led a boycott in the first referendum. Generally boycotts are led when you simply want to drain legitimacy from a referendum (not saying this doesn't have any merit, referendums where this can work are generally on topics where people aren't engaged enough with the question to begin with, but there you have it).

[GALeftist]

Assuming Dems have a federal trifecta, I'd be dismayed (but, knowing democrats, not overly shocked) if DC and PR aren't states by summer's end (assuming no weird court challenges to DC and assuming the PR referendum passes). If it'll happen at all, the end of the year's probably more or less a deadline, because I imagine it'd be a bit of a hassle to redo redistricting after new states are added.

[GALeftist]

Assuming Dems have a federal trifecta, I'd be dismayed (but, knowing democrats, not overly shocked) if DC and PR aren't states by summer's end (assuming no weird court challenges to DC and assuming the PR referendum passes). If it'll happen at all, the end of the year's probably more or less a deadline, because I imagine it'd be a bit of a hassle to redo redistricting after new states are added.

1. It's not that simple.
2. I think Puerto Rico will someday become a state. But should we be granting statehood to places that vote say 52% in favor? What if that number mildly flips in 5 years and becomes 55% in favor of secession? It's best for all federal entities to not touch on the subject of "a majority of this state's population want to leave" because it's a big can of worms. This country dealt with it once and it ended with 618,000 people dead.

You get upwards to say two-thirds in support, entirely different story.

1. Why isn't it that simple? I was under the impression that statehood only required a simple act of congress.
2. Fair point about secession, I suspect that once PR becomes a state, there's no going back, unless Texas v. White is overturned (which it won't be). However, what's the magic about the 67% number? The other 33% are still just out of luck. And what is the alternative to statehood? It seems unconscionable to me to continue to hold Puerto Rico as a modern day colony, subject to rules made by a different group of people in a Congress it has no votes in. In my mind, Puerto Rico should be progressing to either full statehood or full independence as soon as possible, and I very much doubt that more Puerto Ricans prefer independence to statehood.

[GALeftist]

Again, I'm not an expert, but it seems to me that Yes having over a fifth of the island, and almost half of the probable turnout, essentially locked in puts them in a good position for November. I see, basically, two paths to victory for No.

1. No gets 100% of those who vote in November who didn't vote in the 2017 referendum (or at least like 90%). This seems improbable; probably at least part of 2017's low turnout was the fact that it wasn't a general (rather than a boycott by those against statehood), and I suspect Maria has made statehood more attractive since then.

2. No taps into some other anti-statehood constituency which doesn't usually turn out. This seems more plausible; I can imagine that you could do this with the youth of the island, for example. However, the clock is ticking on that, and I haven't really seen any news indicating such a constituency planning to vote in November.

With respect for the Trump point, I actually hadn't thought of that, but I kind of doubt it; I think the perception right now is probably that a Biden administration is likely.

[GALeftist]

I think the swinginess of PR is overrated tbqh. Puerto Ricans on the mainland are reliable Democratic votes, and I can't really envision the current GOP making a serious play for Hispanic votes in the way that they would need to to carry Puerto Rico.

[GALeftist]

Radio Island/Jorge Benitez poll: https://radioisla.tv/jennifer-gonzalez-domina-la-contienda-a-la-comisaria-residente/

October 12-17
676 likely voters (listed as "potential voters", but their last sample was treated as likely voters by 538)
MoE: 3.16%

Yes 43%
No 42%
Undecided 18%

Closest poll I've seen in a while, wow.

[GALeftist]

I'm sort of of the opinion that it's good that current commonwealth status isn't on the ballot. Commonwealth status is basically a glorified colony, so why should it be an option? Most colonial nations were either set free without a referendum or became an integral part of the state after a successful referendum. If I were in Puerto Rico, I'd probably vote for independence, but if they would rather be a state than independent then that's all there is to it.