MO-Remington Research (R): Hawley +4

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.

Dude, no one here thinks this is safe D LOL. Tilt R, still winnable for McCaskill though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sh!t, if only McCaskill was a little less left, and not such a champion for planned parenthood, she would probably be leading Hawley anywhere from 2-5 points right now. Hawley 4+ sounds about right at this time.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.

Dude, no one here thinks this is safe D LOL. Tilt R, still winnable for McCaskill though.

I'd say Tilt D.

Fair enough.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My prediction is that Josh Hawley wins 57-42, I don't think any Democrats can come within single-digits of winning Missouri due to partisan polarization.

I predict that you have a brain tumor.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Greitens has probably pushed this to about a McCaskill 1+ or 2+ at this point now, I wonder if it will stay.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Also Claire has a giant coffer, so once she starts pouring in, I could see her go up a few points, and honestly now, I think she might eek it out by a point tilt R--->tossup.