US House Redistricting: Texas

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Apparently this Laudenberg woman isn't on the redistricting committee, so the map (C115) is probably not the one the Republicans intend to pass.

[Dgov]

Can Someone help me figure out how to post my screenshots of my TX Gerrymander?  I got the pics saved in Photoshop, but now Photo-bucket apparently can't find them in their folder.  Do i need to convert them to something else instead?

[Sam Spade]

Can Someone help me figure out how to post my screenshots of my TX Gerrymander?  I got the pics saved in Photoshop, but now Photo-bucket apparently can't find them in their folder.  Do i need to convert them to something else instead?

You can store pictures on this site, I believe.  Go to gallery.

[Dgov]

Okay, I got my 24-9-3 (Pretty) Clean VRA-compliant Texas R Gerrymander uploaded.

Full State:


Houston Area:


DFW:


Overall, I added 2 Hispanic Majority Districts (35th in DFW, and the 11th in West Texas is now Hispanic-Majority), a Black Majority District (TX-30 in Dallas is now 50.2% Black and 51.2% Black VAP), and a plurality Hispanic district (TX-25 in Austin).

All Hispanic-majority Districts except the 35th are at least 59% VAP Hispanic, all but the 35th and the 11th are at least 61% VAP Hispanic.  TX-27, TX-23 and TX-29 are all McCain-Voting districts as well, although they are all under 55% McCain so i listed them as "swing" districts since they're really not Safe.  But even assuming worst case for the GOP, and it loses all 3, this map is still a solid 24-12 Gerrymander, which represents a 4-seat pickup from 2008.

District-by-District analysis coming shortly.

[Sam Spade]

It's a whole lot easier when you can do the Austin pack, but I suspect that you're going to be required to do the Austin-San Antonio Hispanic thing.  Your TX-11 is a little strange also.

[Dgov]

It's a whole lot easier when you can do the Austin pack, but I suspect that you're going to be required to do the Austin-San Antonio Hispanic thing.  Your TX-11 is a little strange also.

Well, its the only place in the State where you can draw another Hispanic-Majority district without really ugly gerrymandering, so It'll probably stand.  Its more of a community of interest than the Austin-SA district, which you can't actually do under this map (not enough Hispanics free in SA, both TX-20 and TX-23 are at 62% VRA Hispanic, and they can't afford to give up any more to boost TX-25.

[Dgov]

District 1:


This district doesn't change much.  Incumbent Louie Gohmert is Safe in this District, which voted 69% for McCain

District 2: (Dark Green)


This district gets completely confined to Harris County, and as a result gets considerably more Republican, taking in some parts of the current TX-7 and TX-10 while losing Swing-y Beaumont and Port Arthur to the 36th.  It goes from 60% McCain to 64.5% McCain, and is a Safe R district for incumbent Ted Poe

District 3:


This District is now completely inside Collins county, taking in Plano and some surrounding Suburbs.  It gets about 5 points more R, and now voted 63% McCain.  Incumbent Sam Johnson is Safe

District 4:


This district has the safe rough shape as the current district, but gives up alot of its Dallas Suburbs to the 3rd and 32nd districts.  As a result, it gets about a point more Republican, going from 69.5% McCain to 70.5% McCain.  Incumbent Ralph Hall is Safe here, although his home in Rockwall is very inconveniently place and prevents me from shoring up the 32nd any more.  If he were to retire or move further out from downtown, i could do some reshuffling and make this a primarily rural district.  Either way Safe R.

[Dgov]

District 5:


This district Takes in more of the Garland and NorthEast Dallas, and as a result gets about a point and a half more Democrat.  However, incumbent Jeb Hensarling is still safe in this 62% McCain District (assuming I didn't draw him out of his district, and I don't know precisely where he lives).  Safe R.

District 6:


This district loses Arlington and some of its Southern rural counties, but picks up Waco and Grand Prarie in Southwest Dallas county.  It goes from 60% McCain to 62% McCain, though incumbent Joe Barton might not like how much new territory he's getting.  Safe R

District 7:


This District loses some of its western swing suburbs and picks up alot of Republican and swing territory from the current 18th near central Houston (that i presume was intended to eliminate a Democratic incumbent).  It gets about a point more Republican, going from 58% McCain to 59% McCain.  Incumbent John Culberson is safe here in this reliably Republican district.

District 8:


Much like the 2nd District, this district is now completely based in the Overwhelmingly Conservative Northern Houston Suburbs.  Montgomery county is kept together for incumbent Kevin Brady, and the district remains overwhelmingly Republican.  Safe R

[Dgov]

District 9:


This district is basically unchanged.  I tried to balance its Black population with the 18th to keep 2 Black-influenced districts, but this one wound up still being plurality VAP Hispanic, but by less than a point.  Incumbent Al Green should be safe in this heavily Minority 79% Obama District.  Save D

District 10:


This district changes Radically, and Incumbent Michael McCaul is drawn out of it.  It changed from a finger district between the Heavily Republican parts of Houston and White Liberal Austin, to covering the territory between Bexar and Travis counties.  Its about halfway split between Swing-y South Austin Suburbs and Heavily Republican San Antonio Suburbs.  Incumbent McCaul will probalby not be happy with this district, but its impossible to preserve his district in anything resembleing a clean map, so he'll have to make do with either this district or TX-33, which covers West Austin Suburbs.  Though at 60% McCain, it'll be safe R no matter who runs in it.

District 11:


This is the first new Hispanic-Majority VAP district, covering most of West Texas outside of El Paso.  Its 59% VAP Hispanic, and has to include some finger portions to get up to that (including forcing El Paso-based 16th to take some white areas of the big bend to compensate).  The District is based in Odessa/Midland, but steches to San Angelo, El Paso, Eagle Pass, and almost up to Lubbock.

While a kind of ugly district, I think this is the cleanest way to add a 9th Hispanic-Majority district in the state.  It doesn't hurt that its also 61% McCain, though incumbent Mike Conway is probably not going to be happy with a Hispanic-Majority district.  Safe R either way though.

District 12:


This District Doesn't change much from its current form.  Its still basically the White and Republican areas of Fort Worth along with the Surrounding Suburbs.  It has gotten about a point more Republican however, and incumbent Kay Granger is Safe in this 64% McCain District.

[Dgov]

District 13:


This District gets alot cleaner than its current counterpart.  It now stretches from Amarillo to Wichita falls, with most of the rural areas West and Southwest of Oklahoma it in.  Incumbent Mac Thornberry is safe in this district, which is about equally as Republican as its would-be predecessor.  McCain got 76% of the Vote here.

District 14:


This District consolidates around the Houston Suburbs, picking up the rest of Galveston County along with most of Brazoria county and Southeast Harris County.  Its significantly more Democratic than the current 14th, but still voted 59% for McCain, so Paul should be safe here barring any major backlash against his unique political style.  Safe R

District 15:


This is the one that I think is going to be the most controversial, since its basically a Hispanic pack.  At 91% VAP Hispanic, it would be (along with its neighbor the 28th) the most Hispanic district in the US, by a ton.  However, the fact that this district represents a legitimate community of interest instead of a line of counties stretching from the border to Houston (and that the bacon-manderring is no longer needed to satisfy the VRA), I think it'll pass in court.  Incumbent Rueben Hinojosa is very safe here, as the district would have voted 74% Obama (though with extremely low turnout).

District 16: (Darker Green)


This district is basically unchanged from its current form despite adding thousands of square miles of west Texas nothing.  its still overwhelmingly based in El Paso, still Safely Democrat, and Still around 65% Obama.  Democratic Incumbent Silvestre Reyes is safe here.

[Dgov]

District 17:


This was basically my left-over district, covering a long stretch of rural territory from the coast to North of Houston.  Incumbent Bill Flores is getting a lot of new territory here, but at 64% McCain, it shouldn't be too much of a problem.  The only oddity is that I threw in a bunch of D-leaning West Harris Suburbs, (they had to go somewhere),  but that can be easily traded to the 8th for parts of Montgomery county if necessary.  Safe R

District 18: (Yellow Curved one)


This district is ugly.  Really ugly.  It forms a sort of a toilet seat around the 29th district.  However i got this one back to plurality black VAP, so there probably shouldn't be any racial problems.  its shape comes from the fact that I connected the two prongs of the 29th though the middle of its current form, so its overall location doesn't change much.  It does however get a few points more Democratic, and at 81% Obama should be safe for any Democrat to hold.

District 19:


This district takes in most of West-Central Texas, stretching from Lubbock in the Northwest to San Angelo in the South to Abilene in the East.  Incumbent Randy Neugebauer is safe here, in a district that gave McCain 72% of the Vote.  Safe R

District 20: (Pink)


This district moves slightly north from its previous form, taking in some more swing areas of northern San Antonio in exchange for some heavily Hispanic precincts in the South.  As a results, it gets a bit less Hispanic (only 62% Hispanic VAP), but it also gets 3 points more Democratic, so incumbent Charlie Gonzalez is safe here, in a district that gave Obama 66% of the vote.  Safe D

District 21: (Brown)


This district gets completely confined to Bexar County.  However, it takes all the Republican parts, so it still voted 59% for McCain, and incumbent Lamar Smith is safe here.  The reason for this districts shape is because I needed an "excuse" to crack southern San Antonio, and fitting this district entirely in Bexar county worked out perfectly for that.  Safe R

[Sam Spade]

Some observations:

1) The key to making a GOP Texas gerrymander safe for 10 years is two-fold - 1) utilize West Texas rural areas to eliminate certain issues in the I-35 corridor; 2) connect Democratic areas in the inner cities with suburbs that are likely to grow.  Too many Republicans are still locked in one place, imo.  My proposed map #1 (to be posted tomorrow) is a bit uglier, but it deals with this issue better.
2) I think the TX-11 thing is unnecessary and can be handled better.  It is of questionable legality, anyways.
3) Dividing Montgomery County in half eliminates all problems in the Houston area for Republicans.  I would do it without thinking.
4) There's no need to crack the South SA barrio if you do the Austin-San Antonio Hispanic thing.  And it allows you to let TX-20 take in most of the annoying for Republicans Leon Valley area, as Hispanics take over.

[freepcrusher]

here is something cool. You can make a district based solely upon the excess of other districts. Here would be the 34th district in Texas that takes off excess population from the 3rd, 4th, 12th, 24th, and 26th.

[Dgov]

District 22:


This district takes up most of Fort Bend Country, parts of west Harris County, and western Brazoria county.  As a result it gets a bit more Republican, and at 60% McCain, it should be safe for incumbent Pete Olsen.

District 23:


This district is now based almost entirely around San Antonio and some rural areas to the East.  Its only about half a point less Hispanic than its current incarnation, but at 52% McCain it should be safer for incumbent Quico Canseco, after trading out the somewhat Hispanic NE San Antonio for the somewhat Hispanic Victoria area, which is far more Republican.  Its probably a Republican-leaning Swing District

District 24:


This district sheds its southern half, and is now concentrated around NE Tarrant County.  As a result, it gets significantly Whiter and more Republican, as it would have voted 63% McCain in 2008.  If incumbent Kenny Marchant can be convinced to move into the Tarrant county portino of the district, Coppel and the surrouding Republican areas can be put into the 32nd to make it safer.

District 25:


This district is basically an Austin-Pack, though I made sure it wound up being at least plurality Hispanic.  Incumbent LLoyd Dogget will be much safer in this 75% Obama District.

District 26:


This District loses its portion of tarrant county, and as a result is now much more Republican.  It takes in parts of Collins County and more of the rural areas north of Dallas, and at 63% McCain, should be safe for Incumbent Michael Burgess.

[Dgov]

District 27:



This district doesn't change much from its current incarnation, although it does trade out Brownsville for the much more Republican Harlington in South Texas.  Keeping Corpus Christi intact makes solidifying this district a problem since it can't really go anywhere else, but i did make it 5 points more Republican (to 51% McCain), so incumbent Blake Farenthold should be much safe here in 2012.  Lean R at worst

District 28:



This is the other South-Texas Based district, and like the 15th its about 90% Hispanic and 70% Obama.  Incumbent Henry Ceullar is very safe here, though he might face a primary challenge from a more Liberal Hispanic.

District 29:



This is the Houston Hispanic-Majority District, and it gets significantly more Republican.  I basically cut out all the Black-heavy parts and replaced them with heavily Republican parts in SE Harris county.  It goes from 63% Obama to 54% McCain while still under 25% White.  This should be a Republican pickup, although incumbent Gene Green has won in most of this territory before.  Lean R

District 30:



This district loses its heavily HIspanic parts to the 35th, but gains the black parts of Tarrant County.  As a result, it gets more slightly more Democrat and Blacker, and is now 51% VAP Black.  Incumbent Eddie Bernice Johnson is safe here

[freepcrusher]

enjoy trying to get rid of Gene Green. Even if it has minority VAP, that probably won't stand up in court.

[krazen1211]

Dgov, what do you think of this plan to create 2 hispanic districts? Not that I buy the nonsense that you can't remove the blacks from the 29th district, but its quite easy to push the 18th over the edge anyway.

[krazen1211]

enjoy trying to get rid of Gene Green. Even if it has minority VAP, that probably won't stand up in court.

New Jersey Democrats did a very similar thing to LD-33.

[Sam Spade]

The district is a bit more Democratic on a local level and Gene Green is a strong politician, so don't think that he is done, but I wouldn't want to be running in a wave year there.

I don't expect Texas Republicans to be this smart, though.  The two maps they've come up with so far have been very uncreative, imo.

As for legality, any map drafted will be challenged, so you might as well take chances.  As I said before, having grown up in this area, it is hard for me to argue against bleaching from a community of interest perspective in the way these maps are drawn, as black areas where Hispanics have infiltrated are quite different than white areas where Hispanics have infiltrated (these areas were Hispanic for much longer).  There are other aspects of challenge, of course.

[Dgov]

District 31:



This district doesn't really change much--It loses its northern Rural areas and Fort Hood in exchange for some rural areas NE of Austin.  At 59% McCain, incumbent John Carter should probably be safe here for the time being.  Safe R

District 32:



This district is a bit tricky, since its currently only marginally Republican and has Republican incumbents to the West, NW, North, NE, and East of it, boxing it in from the heavily Republican territory further out from Dallas.  I did manage to get it up to 58% McCain from its current 53%, although its still not as safe as I would like.  If incumbent Ralph hall or Kenny Marchant could be persuaded to either retire or move, this district could easily get up to 61% McCain.


District 33:



This district is the first new one, and it takes in 3 very different demographic areas:  the marginally Republican West Austin Suburbs, fairly democratic Fort Hood, and heavily Republican Central Texas.  It all evens out to about 61% McCain, so an easy Republican pickup no matter who runs here.

District 34:



This district is the 2nd new one, and takes in most of Arlington and the Southwest Fort Worth Suburbs.  At 63% McCain, its about as safe as most other Dallas-based Republican Districts, and should probably elect an Arlington Republican.  Safe R

District 35:



This district is the new Hispanic-Majority VAP one in the Metroplex.  It stretches from Fort Worth to Dallas to Garland, and although its only 55% VAP Hispanic, I don't think it will be much of an issue given that Metroplex Hispanics are so spread out that a district this ugly is basically required to get the Hispanic VAP up to even that.  At 69% Obama, its probably Safe D for whoever decides to run here.

District 36:



This district covers the Beaumont/Port Arthur area along with the rural territory north of it.  This area is historically Democratic (Delay actually removed a district roughly this shape in 2003), but turned hard Republican over the last few years, so at 64% McCain it should probably be safe for any R.  If necessary, you can trade territory with the Montgomery-based 8th to shore it up some more, but i don't think thats currently necessary.

[Dgov]

The district is a bit more Democratic on a local level and Gene Green is a strong politician, so don't think that he is done, but I wouldn't want to be running in a wave year there.

I don't expect Texas Republicans to be this smart, though.  The two maps they've come up with so far have been very uncreative, imo.

As for legality, any map drafted will be challenged, so you might as well take chances.  As I said before, having grown up in this area, it is hard for me to argue against bleaching from a community of interest perspective in the way these maps are drawn, as black areas where Hispanics have infiltrated are quite different than white areas where Hispanics have infiltrated (these areas were Hispanic for much longer).  There are other aspects of challenge, of course.

I know, though the districts itself would be like the 3rd most Republican district represented by a Democrat in the country if he survives, and its not like it makes any of the Republican districts weaker if you don't try that.

Also, at the very least you're going to force Green to run as more of a Conservative than he currently is, which I'd consider a win.  Considering he won 65% in a 62% Obama district in 2010 also speaks highly of his strength as an incumbent, but that proportionally would mean he would have only gotten about 48% in 2010 in this district (a 17-point drop), so its not like he would be totally unbeatable, particularly if he's actually targeted by the RPOT.

[Dgov]

Just to make things clear, this map was designed to be the cleanest Safe R map rather than the best map in general, which is why o tried to keep some counties and COI intact and mess up others.

For example, I fully expect a legal challenge to the 23rd and 27th districts in this map, but I figure that unless the courts are using a straight "Hispanics must vote for the winner" classification (Which i doubt since they drew the current 15th, 27th, 28th, and 23rd as Bush districts in 2006), they should hold up.  Aside from the fact that they voted for McCain, neither district is particularly ugly, and in the 23rds case is actually a better COI than the current map.  Basically the Republicans can use the excuse of repairing COI influence to give themselves a safer map for their two most vulnerable incumbents, and protect a gerrymander from an ethnic-rights lawsuit.

[Dgov]

enjoy trying to get rid of Gene Green. Even if it has minority VAP, that probably won't stand up in court.

Technically the excuse is to keep the 18th and 9th as Black-controlled (since i basically just removed all the 20-30% Black precincts from the 29th and put them in the 18th.  There's really no other way to do it, since the 29th has basically the only other accessible blacks in the entire Houston area.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/us/22ttramsey.html

Key quote:

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I can't imagine that Perry would ever let this happen.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/us/22ttramsey.html

Key quote:

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I can't imagine that Perry would ever let this happen.

Basically, they've got two weeks.  The budget is the other big thing that has to happen, and even though there is a general framework, details are not exactly in stone yet.  I don't know whether they'll be able to accomplish both, and Texas redistricters have not shown great creativity so far, which means they may prefer the court to draw the boundaries and wait, as the court tends to protect incumbents.  We'll see.