UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[Hydera]

http://a.uguu.se/ylsioo.webm


Also those tactical votes by UKIP supporters saved cameron's ass the last minute.

And even with PR a narrow right-wing majority would of been possible with Conservatives+UKIP+DUP+UUP with 50.5% of votes.

Is this the most dissapointing/crushing election night in the history of the Labour Party?

Can't be far from it. Of course, 1970 and 1992 are also good candidates (strange how often the pollsters strongly overestimate Labour's chances). 1983 was terrible of course, but so expected that it can't have felt anywhere near this bad.

No, 1992 (in my memory at least). Really this election result was very predictable, we just allowed ourselves to be kidded by the polls that perhaps Miliband and Balls weren't as unpopular as we all knew they really were, and that losing Scotland didn't matter because the SNP are left-wing anyway. All a big house of cards and the cold light of day reveals these beliefs to be the fallacy we secretly knew all along. But a new leader, a miserable Tory government run by the 60 or so far right in their ranks, and a big win in 5 years beckons

I personally attribute it to the economy. If I ask myself the question "Am I better off than I was five years ago?" I have to answer in the affirmative.

If Labour couldn't beat Thatcher with 3 million out of work... they certainly couldn't beat Cameron with 1.9.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LFEM74TTGBQ647S


Close to 2.3 million new jobs created under the tories, don't how how much of that was due to 0 hours contracts. But really can't say that brits aren't better off than they were five years ago when the GFC hit. At this point anything would be better than the depths of a global financial recession.

[Hydera]

It seemed like the issue that hurt the Liberal Democrats most was tuition fees, in the sense that that was where they were perceived to have sold out. The raise in tuition fees was passed in December 2010 with the support of a majority of LD MPs. The questions I have:

1. Could the Liberal Democrats have stopped the government from implementing this plan?
2. If the answer to the previous question was no and the Liberal Democrats had withdrawn their support for the government over tuition fees, how would they have done in the following election?

I was up at night looking at the results in constituency after constituency. most libdem voters rather than vote for left wing parties, had a 50-70% shift to UKIP or tories. Most likely it was a much much different reason than tuition fees that caused their voters to shift, otherwise it would of went towards the left wing parties but didn't.

[Hydera]

Quick-and-dirty constituency map (colored according to margin of victory), 'cause what else was I going to do with my Friday night?

It looks like this is what happened:

Tories bled votes to UKIP in the South in seats they had large majorities so not enough to actually lose seats.
Labour bled votes to UKIP in the North in seats they had large majorities so not enough to actually lose seats.
Labour bled votes to the Greens in the South in seats they had large majorities so not enough to actually lose seats.
Labour bled all their votes and seats in Scotland to the SNP.
The Lib Dems collapsed. Votes and seats went roughly 70% to Tories and 30% to Labour in England and Wales and 100% to SNP in Scotland.
The Tories and Labour swapped marginals in equal numbers (Labour won London, Tories elsewhere).

The results was largely a wash from 2010 except the Lib Dems collapsed and the Tories benefited the most, hence their narrow majority. Labour lost seats because they lost more seats to the SNP than they gained from the Lib Dems.

If Boris Johnson becomes the next leader of the conservative party, then assuming the economy doesnt go rotten in five years and they actually hold the referendum and somehow manage to slow immigration. A bulk of those UKIP votes might go to the tories in 2020 which would give them a commanding plurality and another slightly bigger majority.

[Hydera]

Where can you find the official results by constituency (without clicking 650 times)?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_by_parliamentary_constituency

If you were meant to ask for a map, heres one that doesn't put you in a separate page every time you click and can just slide around.


http://principalfish.co.uk/election2015/

[Hydera]

This might be far fetched.

But i was searching for map of irish ancestry and the closest i could find was a density map of the surname Kennedy. And it was quite high around labour strongholds in the North with exception of south Yorkshire.




Perhaps a reinforcement of the idea that theres a celtic vote divide with the rest of the people on the island?