Barely Republican States

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida has always been slightly left of center, and its shifting demographics clashed with a republican trend of whites. Even with that, the state trended democrat. Although 2012 was a rare case where Latinos were ultra supportive of the president.

Virginia has been trending D for a long time, and its finally a toss-up. With that said, cities, suburbs, and some black rural areas have trended massively D, while the white mountains trend R. Between the categories, republicans get 55-65% in white mountains, around 53% in blacker rural areas downstate, about 55-57% in white areas upstate (there is a big difference between white voters downstate (below Richmond) and upstate (Above Richmond)) outside the mountains. Meanwhile, democrats get 50-52% in suburbs, and 60-70% in urban areas. 

[ElectionsGuy]

1988 R +14
1992 R +10
1996 R +9
2000 R +9
2004 R +6
2008 R <1
2012 D <1

The trend goes back a quarter of a century. Actually it looks like it sped up again until this past cycle. I think it becomes like New Hampshire or at the most New Jersey. Hopefully, we'll be able to make up for it somewhere else.

This is not indicative that the trend will continue, it could reverse or go in cycles in the future. I highly doubt it will be as Democratic as New Jersey (in the next 20 years) but I do think it could go as far as maybe Oregon.