Could Walt Minnick survive past the 2010 elections?

[HAnnA MArin County]

Well, he is the most conservative Democrat in the House caucus. If he survives 2010, he might make it a couple more terms, but he has the problem of being 66 years old -- unless you're a crotchety old crank like Roscoe Barlett, you don't tend to stick around in the House when you are a freshman who's that old. I'm also not sure he could generate the personal popularity that Matheson has, since Matheson had the advantage of his name being fairly popular, with his father being a governer in the 80s.

He's more conservative than Gene Taylor?? Gosh. After reading up on Gene Taylor, that'd be one seat I would like for the Republicans to pick up. That guy is absolutely a DINO. I mean, I understand it's Southern Mississippi and all, but come on! Another one is Dan Boren. These two guys disgust me, as do most conservatives regardless of party.

As for Walt Minnick being more conservative, didn't he endorse Barack Obama well before Super Tuesday? That was a gutsy move to make in one of the reddest states in the nation and the Republicans attacked him for not endorsing Hillary LOL. It is kind of ironic, though, that Obama got his largest margin of victory in the primaries in Idaho. But I digress..

I do think Minnick winning was entirely a fluke, and without Bill Sali, the Republicans will easily take it back in 2010 regardless of the national political climate. I don't think there are that many latte liberals in Boise or enough "transplants" from Washington or even Montana to make Idaho competitive for Democrats anytime soon, and I doubt Minnick can rely on the college kiddies in Latah County to come out and support him like they did for Obama in 2008, who won't be on the ticket this time.

Too many crazy Mormons and far right-wing nut jobs up there in the good ole potato state. 

[HAnnA MArin County]

I'd rather have Sali-lite as my congressman, than Sali any day of the week. I don't think you understand how it is like living in Idaho.

That may be, but I'm not shedding any tears when this guy gets thrown out on his ass.

You have the ability to do so, meanwhile I will have to deal with Sali or some other clown the GOP here nominates.

Karma, I feel your pain. I've never been to or lived in Idaho, but I imagine it's a pretty scary state to live in. You've mentioned the fundies in some of your other posts - are there lots of Bible thumpers up there? I haven't done much research on the state, but I've heard there are lots of Mormons up there. I guess that's a big reason why the state is so red, but what else makes your state one of the most conservative in the nation? White supremacists, uneducated folks, gun-touting hunters, etc.? (Asking sincerely, not to be condescending). The politics of Idaho has always fascinated me.

[HAnnA MArin County]

It's hard to predict. 2008 could be just a fluke. But I don't think we can tie Minnick victory with Obama landslide election, since no one than McCain won in landslide in Idaho.

Minnick can become a safe seat Democratic Congressman in a very Republican state, just like, as you mentioned, Matheson or Boren, or really can be an accidental short-termer. We shall see...

Back in 2008 I was also suprised by his win.

I wonder what's going to happen with two freshman Democratic Representatives from Alabama: Bright and Griffith. Problem is pretty smilliar.

Yeah, Minnick might do better in 2010 without Obama on the ticket, but we shall see. I still give the edge to any generic Republican. It's Idaho, I mean, come on.

As for Bright and Griffith, they are probably safe. Parker Griffith's district, AL-05, in Northern Alabama was held by a Democrat prior to his election, and Bobby Bright was a relatively popular mayor in Montgomery, and since Obama won't be on the ticket in 2010, I reckon they will do similar if not better in 2010 than they did in 2008 unless Obama's approval ratings plummet or the economy gets worse, etc.