International COVID-19 Megathread

[President Johnson]

Germany is setting all time record in daily new cases: 6,638 reported this morning. Private gatherings and parties are largely driving these numbers up, which is why further restrictions for high-risk areas have been issued (a county is considered high risk if more than 50 infections per 100,000 in seven days occur). No more than ten people from two households are allowed in said counties. Almost all larger cities above 500,000 are affected. Our county, a Stuttgart suburb, is close to exceeding the critical 50 as well (it was 47 last time I checked).

[Silent Hunter]

And you were doing so well...

[parochial boy]

I shouldn't be laughing at this, but, well, Schwytz has turned into one of worst hotspots in Europe... thanks to a yodel concert.

I just... can't...

[Silent Hunter]

You've got to laugh or you'll cry.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No more than ten people from two households are allowed in said counties.

The restriction of ten people from two households is only applied to gatherings in private houses and appartments. It's a total of ten people irrespective of the number of households "in public"... public being everything that is not your house or appartment.

Strictly speaking, these restrictions aren't even officially in effect yet. At least not in Berlin where I live. State government meets next Tuesday and it will probably issue the ordinance then. The last such ordinance took effect the Saturday after.... that would mean October 24 in this case.

The current restrictions for Berlin are: 10 people max. indoors irrespective of how many households they come from, 5 people max. in public between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m., no upper limit in public between 6 a.m. and 11 p.m.

[Tender Branson]

The situation here in Salzburg is getting worse and worse.

While my district is still the best (but for how long ?), the situation is out of control in and around Salzburg city and especially the Tennengau district (Hallein etc.) due to a massive Turk wedding where more than 300 guests were present.

Active cases have tripled in just a week in the state and authorities have given up on contact tracing there, because the Turks are also providing wrong or misleading contact information ...

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sure Europe has a second spike that will end up 10 times greater than the first spike.

But the death rate is remarkably low.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Compare case graph vs death graph for France.

Are we dealing with:

(a) a less potent strain;
(b) a less vunerable population;
(c) vitamin D from summer helping to reduce the mortality rate;
(d) another factor...

It is very good news either way.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The judicial branch in Germany is in the process of slowing the government's new anti-Corona restrictions waaayyyyyy down. Yesterday, I think a couple of state-level courts had ruled that you can't ban hotels from accommodating guests from high-infection areas. Today, a court in Berlin has ruled that you can't order restaurants to close at 23 p.m. like it is currently the case in the capital.

[Silent Hunter]

Sure Europe has a second spike that will end up 10 times greater than the first spike.

But the death rate is remarkably low.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Compare case graph vs death graph for France.

Are we dealing with:

(a) a less potent strain;
(b) a less vunerable population;
(c) vitamin D from summer helping to reduce the mortality rate;
(d) another factor...

It is very good news either way.

A lot more testing, better treatment and a slower growth compared to the first peak.

[palandio]

Sure Europe has a second spike that will end up 10 times greater than the first spike.

But the death rate is remarkably low.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Compare case graph vs death graph for France.

Are we dealing with:

(a) a less potent strain;
(b) a less vunerable population;
(c) vitamin D from summer helping to reduce the mortality rate;
(d) another factor...

It is very good news either way.

Don't forget that deaths are a lagging indicator.

And regarding (b) it seems clear to me that the population overall has remained more or less the same. What has changed is that now the virus is spreading more among the less vulnerable parts of the population and less among the more vulnerable parts.

Due to the lagging effects it is probably good to compare the relative death rate in coutries that have (more or less) plateaued and are currently not experiencing heavy growth (or decline) of cases:
In the USA from ca. 7% in early April to ca. 1.3% now.
In Spain from ca. 11% in late March to ca. 1.1% now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

slower growth compared to the first peak.

Non.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

The 2nd spike is spreading much more rapidly in every country affected.

But I take your point about testing.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Don't forget that deaths are a lagging indicator.

We have waited long enough on the lag between deaths and case onset to see the death rate is miniscule compared to previous wave.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

There is something very different about this wave, and it has something to do with the efficacy of the virus itself (which may have lowered) and the population itself (becoming more resistant).

Increased testing may be something to factor in as stated.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, the death rates in this "second wave" seem to be almost universally lower than in the first. So at least a bit of a cause for optimism amongst the gathering gloom.

[palandio]

slower growth compared to the first peak.

Non.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

The 2nd spike is spreading much more rapidly in every country affected.
[...]

Can you easily infer the speed of exponential growth from a plot with linear scale? I can't. When I'm looking at a plot with logarithmized scale I see that growth was much faster in March than it is now.

By speed of growth I mean the following: Denote by f(t) the time-dependent (reasonably smoothed) number of new cases. Then the speed of growth is given by (log f(t))' or equivalently by f'(t)/f(t). Visually that's just the slope of the curve of f on a logarithmized plot.

Don't forget that deaths are a lagging indicator.

We have waited long enough on the lag between deaths and case onset to see the death rate is miniscule compared to previous wave.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

There is something very different about this wave, and it has something to do with the efficacy of the virus itself (which may have lowered) and the population itself (becoming more resistant).

Increased testing may be something to factor in as stated.

I don't deny that the death rate is now much lower than it was in March/April. But the rates in spring were always inflated.

You can't calculate the current French rate by just dividing the most recent death numbers by the most recent case numbers. Case numbers have doubled compared to two weeks ago. If you divide the Oct 16 7-day moving average of death numbers (96) by the Oct 2 7-day moving case average (10,946), you get ca. 0.9%, which is more or less in the same range as current Spanish and US American numbers. (And of course far lower than the ca. 20% in spring.)

The virus or the population having changed are explanations that can't be excluded and particularly a stronger immune system after the summer seems plausible, but these explanations are not necessary to explain the lower rate now. There is a wide range of population studies from spring and they all show death rates between 0.1% and 1%, strongly depending on the method and on the population sample, because as we all know, the risk to die from COVID-19 heavily depends on age, co-morbidities and the state of the local health system.

[Tender Branson]

1.800 new cases here yesterday.

In US terms, that would be +67.000 cases.

7 deaths were recorded, or in US terms, ca. 250.

[President Johnson]

1.800 new cases here yesterday.

In US terms, that would be +67.000 cases.

7 deaths were recorded, or in US terms, ca. 250.

Except for fatalities, these numbers are similar to the US. Is it known what's driving up these numbers? Is it parties and private events? I would assume so, since there is overall not much evidence public transportation or supermarkets are places of infection.

[Mike88]

Portugal update - 16 October:

Total cases: 98,055 (+2,153)
Active cases: 37,974 (+237)
Deaths: 2,162 (+13)
Recoveries: 57,919 (+1,853)
Patients in ICU: 148 (+4)
Patients hospitalized: 1,014 (-1)

Almost 3,000,000 tests conducted since March 1st. On 13 and 14 October, the last days where tests data are available, more than 30,000 tests were conducted on both days.

[Silent Hunter]

1.800 new cases here yesterday.

In US terms, that would be +67.000 cases.

7 deaths were recorded, or in US terms, ca. 250.

Except for fatalities, these numbers are similar to the US. Is it known what's driving up these numbers? Is it parties and private events? I would assume so, since there is overall not much evidence public transportation or supermarkets are places of infection.

In England it's schools and workplaces.

[Alcibiades]

1.800 new cases here yesterday.

In US terms, that would be +67.000 cases.

7 deaths were recorded, or in US terms, ca. 250.

Except for fatalities, these numbers are similar to the US. Is it known what's driving up these numbers? Is it parties and private events? I would assume so, since there is overall not much evidence public transportation or supermarkets are places of infection.

In England it's schools and workplaces.

And universities, much more than schools. (Unless you were using schools in the sense that our American friends would understand.)

[Pericles]

I think at the peak of the first wave in the UK, the actual daily infections were around 100,000. Now, they are picking up a lot more cases, so they think that last werk it was 27,000 daily infections. That seems about right based on the current death rate (which is also, sadly, supposed to rise due to the infections that have already occurred recently but haven't yet resulted in death). Plus, I presume the government isn't sending infected people into care homes without testing them this time.

[President Johnson]

1.800 new cases here yesterday.

In US terms, that would be +67.000 cases.

7 deaths were recorded, or in US terms, ca. 250.

Except for fatalities, these numbers are similar to the US. Is it known what's driving up these numbers? Is it parties and private events? I would assume so, since there is overall not much evidence public transportation or supermarkets are places of infection.

In England it's schools and workplaces.

And universities, much more than schools. (Unless you were using schools in the sense that our American friends would understand.)

Interesting; studies in Germany found that schools hardly contribute to the most recent spike in cases. Here it's mainly young people going out for parties or private events like family fests or weddings. The city of Hamm had a very low number in cases until few weeks ago and then one wedding with 200 people became a superspreader event and caused that many infections that public life had to be restricted. The couple now faces legal issues.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Italy has spiked in an absurd way. More than 10,000 new cases yesterday. We are over 400,000 total cases now.

New restrictions are being considered by the government.

[CumbrianLefty]

1.800 new cases here yesterday.

In US terms, that would be +67.000 cases.

7 deaths were recorded, or in US terms, ca. 250.

Except for fatalities, these numbers are similar to the US. Is it known what's driving up these numbers? Is it parties and private events? I would assume so, since there is overall not much evidence public transportation or supermarkets are places of infection.

In England it's schools and workplaces.

And universities, much more than schools. (Unless you were using schools in the sense that our American friends would understand.)

Interesting; studies in Germany found that schools hardly contribute to the most recent spike in cases. Here it's mainly young people going out for parties or private events like family fests or weddings. The city of Hamm had a very low number in cases until few weeks ago and then one wedding with 200 people became a superspreader event and caused that many infections that public life had to be restricted. The couple now faces legal issues.

Quite rightly, it would seem - what is the actual legal limit on persons attending such things?

[Tender Branson]

1.800 new cases here yesterday.

In US terms, that would be +67.000 cases.

7 deaths were recorded, or in US terms, ca. 250.

Except for fatalities, these numbers are similar to the US. Is it known what's driving up these numbers? Is it parties and private events? I would assume so, since there is overall not much evidence public transportation or supermarkets are places of infection.

Mostly the same causes as in Germany: private events such as inviting 100s of people to wedding parties (Turks, but also others) and young people ignoring rules. Not that many cases are coming from schools (it is assumed that school children get infected at home, not at school).

[Estrella]

So, during the first wave in March-April-May, Slovakia was held as a good example of Doing Things That Work. Strict (but not too strict) measures enacted early on helped to flatten the curve fairly quickly and things returned to almost normal during the summer until, well, two weeks ago. We're now in the middle of a second wave, with a thousand or more new cases every day (in a country of 5.4 million, remember). And the government thought: we have 13 million tests in stock... why not test everyone? As in, literally every single person in the country (above the age of 10). The plan is that people will go to their local polling station, get tested (for free) and, within 30 minutes, get a certificate. The testing will be voluntary except it won't - people will need to stay qurantined at home for 10 days if they don't get tested and people going outside might be asked to show their certificate and be fined if they don't have it. People will also be able to get tested at private providers, if they pay for it themselves. The gov't expects that they'll open 5000 testing sites and will need some 20 to 40 thousand people - the testing will be done by volunteers and army medics, the organizing and bureaucracy by ordinary soldiers, police, civil defence and probably anyone who is available.

Right now as I'm writing this, the PM is speaking about the meeting of State Security Council about Operation Common Responsibility *eyeroll*. Today, the Army sent liaisons to local councils to arrange things. The testing will start in the hotspots in the north of the country and begin nationwide in two weeks.

This is either indisputably genius or criminally stupid; probably both.

FWIW, the Prime Minister's handling of this crisis has been pretty good so far but he's been unbelievably bad at selling it and usually comes off as a reckless idiot. His party got 15% in a poll last week; I won't be surprised it they end up in single digits before Christmas.