VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Baki]

At what % reporting did Hillary take the lead last year?

82%, though she lead in literally the first returns before Trump took a large lead.

Also, in 2014, in the Warner-Gillespie Senate race Gillespie was leading until about 92% had reported.

With 1% reporting Gillespie's lead was 61-36 I think.

I don't know if it matters, just putting it out there.

[Baki]

https://www.nytimes.com/news/election-2013/2013/11/05/virginia-the-governors-race-minute-by-minute/

That's a graph that shows how the lead changed throughout the night in the 2013 race.

[Baki]

by the time around 90% is reporting, I think if Gillespie has over a 06000 vote it is unlikely northam will win even if most of Fairfax is to report.

In the 2014 Senate race, with 89%  reporting Gillespie had a 7500 vote lead.
At that same moment Fairfax had less than 75% reporting.

[Baki]

I guess we'll wait and see.
Hopefully we won't see that.

[Baki]

We all know Northam is probably going to win tonight. Let's stop panicking.

We know nothing.
But we should stop panicking anyway.

[Baki]

CNN reports dems are encouraged by NoVA turnout but worried about high SW VA turnout

No.
CNN reports that the Democrats are worried because they don't have any real info about SW VA so - for all they know - turnout could be booming there but may also be abysmal.

[Baki]

EXITS

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/virginia-politics/governor-exit-polls/?utm_term=.20b245224bad

With just a quick glance - Northam is doing ever so slightly better than Clinton in quite a few of those categories.