Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Chief Justice Keef]

IMO it's pretty obvious that this is the same, old trick.

I guess there's the possibility Republicans are trying to play it up so a single-digit win for Estes doesn't look bad, but never doubt the incompetency of Kansas Republicans.

[Gass3268]

IMO it's pretty obvious that this is the same, old trick.

I guess there's the possibility Republicans are trying to play it up so a single-digit win for Estes doesn't look bad, but never doubt the incompetency of Kansas Republicans.

It's to scare folks into voting.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Interesting a Democratic internal from last month had Estes +24

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kansas-democratic-congressional-candidate-feuds-with-party

[The Other Castro]

Interesting a Democratic internal from last month had Estes +24

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kansas-democratic-congressional-candidate-feuds-with-party

A lot can change in a month, especially in a special congressional election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Part of me thinks this is actually close, and part of me is remembering that Orman was supposed to come close or win, but ended up losing by a lot (although he still did better than "Generic D"). No idea which is right.

[Gass3268]

Just saw a tweet that that the early vote was 48-40 Republican.

[Holmes]

Either way it's probably why they're running around screaming like the sky is falling.

[socaldem]

Thompson strikes me as a really good candidate--he seems almost Tester-esque in his approach...

Estes seems slimy af and just looks like a GOP tool.

I'm hoping that--whatever the outcome--Thompson stays involved, perhaps running for Kansas statewide office or a rematch in 2018.

[Ebsy]

Just saw a tweet that that the early vote was 48-40 Republican.

Was that the Ted Bonier tweetstorm from earlier this week?

[Ebsy]

IMO it's pretty obvious that this is the same, old trick.

I guess there's the possibility Republicans are trying to play it up so a single-digit win for Estes doesn't look bad, but never doubt the incompetency of Kansas Republicans.

It's to scare folks into voting.

Do a lot of people in Witchita read the Kansas City Star? Probably not.

[136or142]

I say:
Estes - 53%
Thompson - 43%
Rockhold - 4%

As a Wichitan, I know by any mean this is a hell of an uphill battle. Here's what Thompson has going for him:
-Insane fundraising numbers (for the 4th district)
-Strong grassroots support in Wichita's young professional community (we'll see if there are enough "new Wichitans" to propel him to victory)
-He's strongly pro-gun
-The field operation is incredibly strong, and there are thousands of volunteers on the ground and on the phones
-Estes hasn't really been campaigning much; his office has sat around empty for a while just before the election
-Estes somehow has less energy than Jeb Bush or Ben Carson, the guy is sooooo boring
-Paul Davis only lost the district by a few points, and Estes is strongly linked to unpopular Brownback

Here's what stands in his way though:
-This district bleeds red through and through-most Dems lose by 30
-Ted Cruz remains very popular with the large Evangelical population
-Abortion ads will hit Thompson hard, even though they're false; Abortion is even more of a fault line in Wichita than most places thanks to the Summer of Mercy and then years later, Dr. Tiller's killing
-Estes was the former county treasurer and current state treasurer, so people know him
-Will Black and Latino Democrats in Wichita turn out? There was a big turnout dropoff in 2014 and even from the presidential race to the congressional race in 2016

Isn't Wichita the biggest city in Kansas?  I know it's still a medium sized city, but it's a bit odd when the biggest city in a state is heavily Republican.

[henster]

KS-GOV is ripe for the taking for the taking in 2018, if KS Ds can't then they mind as well close up shop.

[The Other Castro]

I find that R+1 poll pretty suspect, though a single digit race at this point wouldn't be crazy. I expect something around R+10 at the end of the day.

[Kantakouzenos]

Actually, it was moved from likely to lean R. 

[TheSaint250]

My prediction is about +15 for Estes. The reason I say this is because of the redness of the district and that poll someone cited earlier of Estes at +24. I also think the Libertarian narrowly misses getting 5% of the vote.

Of course, I could be horribly wrong, but I think with the GOP putting so much into the election in the final days and, like I said before, with the district being pretty red, Estes will win by a large margin.

[Gass3268]

I say:
Estes - 53%
Thompson - 43%
Rockhold - 4%

As a Wichitan, I know by any mean this is a hell of an uphill battle. Here's what Thompson has going for him:
-Insane fundraising numbers (for the 4th district)
-Strong grassroots support in Wichita's young professional community (we'll see if there are enough "new Wichitans" to propel him to victory)
-He's strongly pro-gun
-The field operation is incredibly strong, and there are thousands of volunteers on the ground and on the phones
-Estes hasn't really been campaigning much; his office has sat around empty for a while just before the election
-Estes somehow has less energy than Jeb Bush or Ben Carson, the guy is sooooo boring
-Paul Davis only lost the district by a few points, and Estes is strongly linked to unpopular Brownback

Here's what stands in his way though:
-This district bleeds red through and through-most Dems lose by 30
-Ted Cruz remains very popular with the large Evangelical population
-Abortion ads will hit Thompson hard, even though they're false; Abortion is even more of a fault line in Wichita than most places thanks to the Summer of Mercy and then years later, Dr. Tiller's killing
-Estes was the former county treasurer and current state treasurer, so people know him
-Will Black and Latino Democrats in Wichita turn out? There was a big turnout dropoff in 2014 and even from the presidential race to the congressional race in 2016

Isn't Wichita the biggest city in Kansas?  I know it's still a medium sized city, but it's a bit odd when the biggest city in a state is heavily Republican.

I think the city of Wichita itself is more of a toss-up city, with the area outside the city which makes up about 25% of the counties population pushes Sedgwick County to be a very reliable Republican County.

[McGovernForPrez]

My prediction is about +15 for Estes. The reason I say this is because of the redness of the district and that poll someone cited earlier of Estes at +24. I also think the Libertarian narrowly misses getting 5% of the vote.

Of course, I could be horribly wrong, but I think with the GOP putting so much into the election in the final days and, like I said before, with the district being pretty red, Estes will win by a large margin.

There's a supposed GOP internal floating around claiming that they saw Estes +1. That +5 poll was from a while back I think.

[Vega]

Does anyone have a live results page?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Does anyone else think it's possible that internal poll is right an there could be a huge crossover vote from reps who are sick of Brownback/local rep leadership?

[KingSweden]

I don't doubt the +1 internal, but I still expect Estes to win by mid single digits

[GlobeSoc]

Does anyone else think it's possible that internal poll is right an there could be a huge crossover vote from reps who are sick of Brownback/local rep leadership?

Yes, in fact one of the main questions I am going to have answered tonight is which faction of Republicans are turning out, moderates who defect or Brownbackers who won't. In fact, the Kansas republican civil war is what made me make my bold prediction in the first place, in spite of the republican lead in early voting.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If this race is less than a 10 point win for Estes it signals trouble for the GOP in the upcoming special elections ( not sure about 2018) and maybe VA Governor

[Kantakouzenos]

Is there website that will have a live results page for this election?

[Jeppe]

What time do polls close today?

[VPH]

I say:
Estes - 53%
Thompson - 43%
Rockhold - 4%

As a Wichitan, I know by any mean this is a hell of an uphill battle. Here's what Thompson has going for him:
-Insane fundraising numbers (for the 4th district)
-Strong grassroots support in Wichita's young professional community (we'll see if there are enough "new Wichitans" to propel him to victory)
-He's strongly pro-gun
-The field operation is incredibly strong, and there are thousands of volunteers on the ground and on the phones
-Estes hasn't really been campaigning much; his office has sat around empty for a while just before the election
-Estes somehow has less energy than Jeb Bush or Ben Carson, the guy is sooooo boring
-Paul Davis only lost the district by a few points, and Estes is strongly linked to unpopular Brownback

Here's what stands in his way though:
-This district bleeds red through and through-most Dems lose by 30
-Ted Cruz remains very popular with the large Evangelical population
-Abortion ads will hit Thompson hard, even though they're false; Abortion is even more of a fault line in Wichita than most places thanks to the Summer of Mercy and then years later, Dr. Tiller's killing
-Estes was the former county treasurer and current state treasurer, so people know him
-Will Black and Latino Democrats in Wichita turn out? There was a big turnout dropoff in 2014 and even from the presidential race to the congressional race in 2016

Isn't Wichita the biggest city in Kansas?  I know it's still a medium sized city, but it's a bit odd when the biggest city in a state is heavily Republican.

I think the city of Wichita itself is more of a toss-up city, with the area outside the city which makes up about 25% of the counties population pushes Sedgwick County to be a very reliable Republican County.

City proper of Wichita has a GOP mayor and voted 49-40 for Trump over Hillary.