Why is Obama sinking like a rock?

[Reaganfan]

It reminds me of how Bush's approval rating in 2005 was in the low to mid 40s, but his statewide support was still high. Of course, the numbers caught up eventually.

Obama may have high statewide approvals, but similar to Carter and GWB, eventually his overall approval rating will catch up.

[Reaganfan]

Young people, and minorities will not be anywhere near the numbers they were in 2008. If anything, conservatives will be the more motivated to vote next year, and Obama's poor numbers among whites are only likely to be stronger than in 2008.

My guess is a very close result, either a narrow Republican victory or a narrow Obama re-election. Something like this give or take a state or two: