IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[new_patomic]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

And I'm sure an Ocasio Cortez type figure would have gotten elected in Indiana and also have an actual fighting chance of reelection.

Ideally there would be something between Joe "Hoosier Common Sense" Donnelly and Ocasio Cortez.

[new_patomic]

So...where do my fellow Hoosiers think the race likely stands now?

Still think it's as much of a toss-up as any race can be at this point. But *MAYBE* tilting Donnelly. Like 51%-49%.

Joe's been running a very mediocre campaign so far, and it's really pissing me off.  Braun is a fierce attack dog, and Donnelly is still trying to play Mr. Nice Guy.

I just hope that when Donnelly votes for Kavanaugh, the Dem base doesn't stay home.

Donnelly will surely rally Democratic voters by *checks notes* voting for Trump's Supreme Court nominee.

And I'm sure an Ocasio Cortez type figure would have gotten elected in Indiana and also have an actual fighting chance of reelection.

Ideally there would be something between Joe "Hoosier Common Sense" Donnelly and Ocasio Cortez.

Fair point.

I mean, this being Indiana he obviously can't tact that left. But Donnelly just comes off as so... bland.

I don't want to judge him on his campaign website, but if 'common sense' became a platform then this would be it. It's all about bipartisanship and not stepping on any toes. He talks about education, yet can't even include a line about free community college. Talks about jobs and the economy, and the word 'wage' isn't mentioned once. His healthcare page is all about how he opposed efforts to rollback coverage (great) but also likes to work with Republicans, and not much else. It's all very middle of the road status-quo stuff.

Claire McCaskill's website at least talks about consumer protections and women's well-being. Tester's isn't that great, but he knows how to play locally by including stuff about public lands, and also ties in his commitment to clean ethics with his want to get "dark money out of politics" and overturn Citizens United. They at least seem to be able to make a pitch to the base here and there on progressive issues, to make Democrats want to support them. While Donnelly's strategy seems to amount to 'I'm inoffensive and am not a Republican.'

[new_patomic]

Besides monroe ofc

You've got a good amount of Democrats in Indianapolis (Marion County) and in the northwest of the state in places like Gary. Doesn't stop Democrats from losing Indiana by 10+ points in an average year but they've got more of a floor there than, say, North Dakota or West Virginia.

It's enough at least that ignoring them is risky. He needs a good amount of crossover votes, but also needs strong numbers out of the few Democratic areas of the state.

[new_patomic]

He enables war criminals and is complicit in the erosion of our fundamental civil liberties. I would rather have Rand Paul representing me than authoritarian, war mongering trash like Donnelly.

Are people here still pretending Rand Paul is some kind of maverick? I must have teleported 4 years back in time.

Rand Paul is a '''''libertarian'''''

He loves to tease a no vote here and there but sticks entirely to the Republican line.

[new_patomic]

He enables war criminals and is complicit in the erosion of our fundamental civil liberties. I would rather have Rand Paul representing me than authoritarian, war mongering trash like Donnelly.

]
Are people here still pretending Rand Paul is some kind of maverick? I must have teleported 4 years back in time.

[/url]
Rand Paul is a '''''libertarian'''''

He loves to tease a no vote here and there but sticks entirely to the Republican line.

Per 538's scorecard, Paul has voted with Trump 74.0% of the time, which is the lowest percentage of any Republican Senator (Collins is second at 78.9%), but higher than any Democrat (Manchin is the highest at 60.5%; Donnelly is third at 54.7%).

He'll vote against appropriations bills because deficit and make the occasional stand on spying. Big woop.

[new_patomic]

The poll seems to show Donnelly getting what he needs, and from where he needs it. Doing well in Marion and the Northwest and keeping his losses down in small towns and other places. Pleasantly surprised.

[new_patomic]

Comparing Donnelly to Bayh completely ignores the reason why Bayh lost. Bayh lost because:

A) Indiana swung hard for Trump
B) he was imploding because of his lobbying and the fact that he had just moved back to Indiana

Donnelly has neither of these problems. Based on the GCB and Trump's approval in the state, Indiana's 2016 Trumpslide was something of an anomaly. In addition, Donnelly has none of Bayh's personal problems. He's a sitting Senator, not a retread.

It didn't help that Bayh was the non-incumbent Senator who wasn't even running until that July.