In order to remain competitive, the GOP needs to do better with Hispanics, which would lead to a lot of the Democratic trending western states to flip back.
At the same time, I thing that the Democratic trend in the coastal south (Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia) will continue.
In this way I like maps 2 and 3 better (which are effectively the same, really). However, I don't think the Democrats will collapse in the Midwest. The Republicans will be competitive there with the right candidate or the right environment, but I don't see the case for a Republican trend there.
The map gives Democrats an edge in a 50/50 election like today, however re-allocation of EVs will likely boost the Republicans a bit.
If the Republicans do well reaching out to Hispanics, they will at least do substantially better amongst blacks. Maybe they will go from 12:1 and 2:1 respectively to 3:1 and 5:4 respectively?
It will be a tall order for the GOP to do better among blacks after the way they treated the first black president.
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