Are young voters really as Democratic as being portrayed?

[Vepres]

While the Republicans could change the social strategy they may have already lost many voters that came of voting age this decade because of Bush. There was a chart I saw once on 538.com that showed how the popularity or unpopularity of a presidential administration affect the voting habits of that age group. Surprisingly older voters who came of age during Roosevelt remained strong supporters of Democrats even though they are probably more socially conservative than voters who came of age during the 80s and are avid supporters of the GOP. But the shock was how strongly this new generation of voters is loyal to the Democrats. Surely it will change as time goes on, but it will likely not change by much. I know that I will struggle to consider the Republicans in the future mainly because of Bush even if I agree with their policy.

If Obama and/or the Democratic congress has a drastic failure, than the overly idealistic youth will become disenchanted with Democrats, and vote Republican. That's what happened with Gen X and Carter, no?

[Vepres]

I honestly don't believe there is any evidence that social issues are to blame. Sure, young people support gay marriage (though not as much as some want us to believe). So? Who steps into the voting booth and votes on gay marriage?

I don't think the Republicans have to scrap these social issues, they just need to do a better job in explaining them.

Beyond this forum, people have very limited political knowledge.  When the image is portrayed by each party that Democrats are open minded and Republicans are traditional and religious, young people choose the Democrats.  An extreme minority of voters have nearly enough knowledge to make educated decisions on political matters.  The social issues have done us in because they're "uncool".  The Democratic Party is trendy and in touch with young people and can be easily accessed on college campuses and social networking sites, the Republican Party has elderly activists and can be found handing out brochures outside of churches and retirement homes.  Those are the people our parties have chosen to market to and those are the people that have become interested.

With young people I think it helps that they tend to be on average, more "impressionable", or so to speak, than older people.  I generally agree with the notion that if you want to attract a certain group to your cause, it helps if you speak their language; the Republican party, though down at the moment, does have a realistic chance, I feel, of getting back up again if finds ways of drawing younger people into its circle.  Using some of the Democratic party's methodology in drawing in the young voters, just adjusted for the Republican's message, could help initiate a resurgence of the Republican's in my opinion.  You just gotta make yourself appealing, that's the trick.

Yeah, remember that Ron Paul got heavy youth support (though Republicans don't want him to be their face, I wouldn't either). I think the GOP could get the youth to be about evenly Republican and Democrat if they played their cards right.

[Vepres]

If voters born between November 5, 1990 and November 6, 1994 are as liberal-leaning as voters between ages 18 and 29 were on Election Day 2008, then the Democratic trend should be strong in all states -- to the detriment of the GOP -- even if nothing else changes other than the usual attrition of older voters from the electorate due to death and senescence. That alone would be enough to swing Missouri, Montana, and Georgia to Obama in 2012, and it will be enough to solidify Democratic majorities in North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

That's a big if. Remember, these people became politically aware, so to speak, when Democrats controlled both houses of congress. Democrats will have controlled the white house for most of the time too. These kids will have much less hatred of Bush (as I younger person myself, I've heard current high schoolers talk be indifferent to Bush, and I live in liberal area).

Any mistakes Democrats make will have multiple times more of an effect on these people than others.

[Vepres]

No, they're liberal. 

Agreed. Did you guys see this Gallup poll?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/120857/Conservatives-Single-Largest-Ideological-Group.aspx

It finds that voters 18-29 are as likely to be liberal (31%) as they are to be conservative (30%). Among all other age groups, people call themselves conservative by a fairly wide margin.

You can spin this, but all this means is that a good portion are still moderates, and the conservative numbers aren't too shabby either.

[Vepres]

Young voters are much less likely to be white than older voters. This is the most important factor.

They are also better educated for their age than young adults of similar age, and more rational.  They are more urban and suburban than older generations. They are far less likely than older adults to be members of the Religious Right, a constituency that fed millions of uncritical votes to the GOP .

They are likely to enter adulthood with both heavy debt (student loans) and economic insecurity and have seen story after story of executive incompetence, rapaciousness, corruption, and outright cruelty in business, so about the only thing that contemporary capitalism reliably offers is consumer choice.  Whatever their ethnicity they have less immediate stake in the usual "Sound Money" interests usually associated with the GOP.

They have yet to start getting huge incomes from professional practices, and such small businesses as they may have started have yet to become profitable enough that they concern themselves more with taxes than with revenue.   

But here's the big one: the only President that any of them can have known while adults before January 20, 2009 is George W. Bush. They did pay attention to their Civics and American history classes, and they contrast Dubya to earlier Presidents -- and he seems dreadful.

Of course, half the youth vote in 2012 will only know Obama. If Obama's a good President, the millenial(sp?) generation will be solid Democrat. However, if isn't successful, they could be a very independent, swing generation.

[Vepres]

As a member of the 18-30 aged group, I have to say that many members of my generation call themselves liberals even if they aren't. Many hold fairly conservative views but don't call themselves Republicans due to the tarnished name the party carries. I would say that my group is moderate on economics, 50-50 split on abortion, but very pro-gay rights.

One of the things I can't stand is this idea that Republicans need to moderate their position on the so called "gay rights" to appeal to young voters. There is absolutely no evidenced that many people voted for Obama because McCain opposed gay marriage. The problem is that most of our "opinion making class" (and I daresay a dispoportionate amount of political activists on the internet) come from liberal enclaves that do not share the rest of the nation's values. The ral problem is the failure of Republican governance the last eight years.

(facepalm)
Moderates are the key to victory numnuts. If you don't moderate on anything how the hell do you expect to win or even come close to winning?

I didn't say not to moderate anything. I said that it was unnecessary to moderate on gay marriage because it is not a priority issue to the voting public, except for religious conservatives that the Republicans need.

My advice? At least adopt a semi-civil union stance.
So the only people that gay marriage is a priority are religious people? LMAO
So gay people don't consider the right to be legally equal to straight people a 'priority'?

An anti-gay civil unions/marriage platform didn't help the GOP score undecided voters at the last minute, the gun issue did:
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=80825

Right, but there aren't as many gays as there are evangelical protestants.

My point is not that gay marriage is a means to swing an election, its that flip-flopping would alienate too much of the base and would not ultimately alter voting intentions of moderates.

Gay rights and over emphasis on religious values combined with arrogant foreign policy stances alienate young people that would otherwise be GOP voters.

[Vepres]

The GOP's hostility to gay rights is symptomatic of their hostility to historically discriminated groups.  In modern times the party has had bad relations with women's rights and minority organizations and they have not done well with those demographics in elections.  Their issues with gays and lesbians are in a similar vein.  It feeds the perception that whatever tokens they might shove in front of the camera, only the powers that have always been are represented there.

I'm not saying your wrong, but it is hard to reach out to these organizations when they have practically become wings of the Democratic primary. You didn't hear any women's rights group criticizing Clinton during the Lewinsky scandal.

[Vepres]

Young people are much more to the left on social issues and not as arrogant and forceful in their foreign policy beliefs. On economic issues they're similar to older generations however.