Predict Tammy Baldwin's margin of victory.

[SnowLabrador]

Considering that even with many low-propensity Republicans staying home, Ron Johnson was still able to get a 1-point victory, I don't think Baldwin is going to win a blowout like some here think. I have Trump winning Wisconsin by 2 or 3 points, so I'll say Baldwin +1 (since her crossover appeal is likely somewhat overstated). Still, a win is a win.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Hovde is a train wreck, he’s running an Oz-like campaign

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think that she'll have enough votes to win as she's likely to run ahead of Biden, although Trump being on the top of the ballot is likely to harm her compared to her previous runs. I voted for winning by <2 points as a result.

[Miked0920]

Id say Baldwin wins by +3 anywhere from 1-5 points.

[Mr. Smith]

Baldwin by 2-3, but only if Trump wins by 2016 margins or less, still an outside chance of both races being the tipping point...again.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.

She won 2012/18 and Trump isn't winning WI

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.

She has some based on 2018 but agree not in the same magnitude.

Some of it is also downballot lag in certain areas of rural WI, mainly driftless (but then you also have downballot lag favoring Hodve in WOW).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.

She has some based on 2018 but agree not in the same magnitude.

Some of it is also downballot lag in certain areas of rural WI, mainly driftless (but then you also have downballot lag favoring Hodve in WOW).

The thing with 2018 though is the GOP completely triaged that race. She ran against a virtually nonexistent campaign as Republicans weren't even targeting Ohio seriously that year.

[Xing]

Considering that she overperformed Evers by 10 in her most recent race, I don't think it's accurate at all to say that she has "no crossover appeal." Crossover appeal is not based solely on ideology. I obviously don't think she'll overperform Biden by 10, but I do think she will by 3-5%, which will very likely be enough to pull out a win unless Democrats are having a really atrocious night. Baldwin +4 is my current guess.

[coloradocowboi]

A lot of people are being really presumptuous here about Trump’s chances in WI. They are 50-50 at best. And Hovde literally can’t win without Trump winning by at least a few points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Baldwin+4.

[MarkD]

Considering how weak the GOP field is, she'll probably win by a margin nearly as big as in 2018, so about 10 points -- 54 to 44 to 2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

4)6 pts it's exaggerated even the😂 Trump numbers

[xavier110]

2-4.