2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[SnowLabrador]

2022 Senate outlook:

First forecast for the next election season!  We are still over a year away so expect things to change a bit.  Pretty narrow playing field for both sides, with only 6-10 competitive races at the moment.

I have a pretty good track record (check my past predictions), and hoping this will continue. I've developed a new election model, but this is the first time it will be used on a US election.  I predicted the popular vote in the Canadian federal elections nearly perfect using this new model, so fingers crossed this is providing an accurate outlook as to what's going on and unskewing biased polling.  Gubernational outlook coming in the new year.



No tossups:


Margins:
Colorado +9 Dem
Pennsylvania +5 Dem
Arizona +3 Dem
Nevada +2 Dem
New Hampshire +1 Dem
Georgia +1 Rep
Wisconsin +5 Rep
North Carolina +7 Rep
Ohio +10 Rep
Florida +10 Rep

Pennsylvania isn't voting 10 points to the left of Wisconsin. And I think Kelly would lose before Warnock, since Georgia is trending leftward faster than Arizona.

[DabbingSanta]

Pennsylvania isn't voting 12 points to the left of Wisconsin. And I think Kelly would lose before Warnock, since Georgia is trending leftward faster than Arizona.

I agree, we need more polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pennsylvania isn't voting 12 points to the left of Wisconsin. And I think Kelly would lose before Warnock, since Georgia is trending leftward faster than Arizona.

I agree, we need more polling.

No


WI is gonna be competitive underestimate D's in WI Johnson isn't safe

Snowlabrador thinks he is, but he only won by 3 pts like Toomey won by  2, he didn't win by 10 or 20 like Portman

GA isn't Lean R it's a Tossup

[Pericles]

Those ratings actually look too favourable to Democrats. If 2022 is a normal midterm so either a wave or close to it, then I doubt Republicans have much trouble picking up the Senate. They could run the table and get 54, but Georgia's relentless trend regardless of the national environment and New Hampshire's stronger Democratic lean will be the biggest challenges for them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Those ratings actually look too favourable to Democrats. If 2022 is a normal midterm so either a wave or close to it, then I doubt Republicans have much trouble picking up the Senate. They could run the table and get 54, but Georgia's relentless trend regardless of the national environment and New Hampshire's stronger Democratic lean will be the biggest challenges for them.

Lol it's always been a 304 map

[MT Treasurer]

qtrash has GOP up 46-43 in their generic ballot poll

dems hold 8 point lead among whites who went to college

but dems only up 5 among hispanics.

and down 68-19 among WWC

Because apparently this poster is incapable of posting the pollster's actual name and leaving the link in the post:

8. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

46% Republican Party
43% Democratic Party
11% DK/NA

1,326 U.S. adults nationwide were surveyed from October 1st - 4th with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3823
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us10052021_uype37.pdf

Also, imagine still "unskewing" a poll based on crosstabs in the year 2021. A R+3 lead is not as unbelievable or unrealistic as you may think!

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Yeah, R+3 makes sense based on the 538 RV/LV approval rating right now

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, R+3 makes sense based on the 538 RV/LV approval rating right now

This would also represent a six-point swing from 2020 (when Dems won the GCB by 3) that would be in line with the CA-PRES 2020 -> CA-GOV 2021 swing and (potentially/likely) the VA-PRES 2020 -> VA-GOV 2021 and NJ-PRES 2020 -> NJ-GOV 2021 swings.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Rs pick up New Hampshire, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada while holding all their current seats.

[SnowLabrador]

Rs pick up New Hampshire, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada while holding all their current seats.

At this point, that seems likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs pick up New Hampshire, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada while holding all their current seats.
[/quote
Did you see the NV poll that showed CCM and SISOLAK ahead

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, R+3 makes sense based on the 538 RV/LV approval rating right now

However, an outlier right now given that every single other recent GCB has had a Dem lead, but not surprised that so many people (think Twitter pundits) are going nuts over the *one* that shows a R lead, which is also bound to happen sooner or later.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Biden slump is only Temp, people are nervous about the Debt Ceiling and their SSA checks, once they resolve the Debt Ceiling by the end of Oct at the latest Biden polls will go up

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist has Dems up +7, 43-36

Wonder if this will get as much attention as Q-pac!

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/j46zs8picp/econTabReport.pdf

[DabbingSanta]

Those ratings actually look too favourable to Democrats. If 2022 is a normal midterm so either a wave or close to it, then I doubt Republicans have much trouble picking up the Senate. They could run the table and get 54, but Georgia's relentless trend regardless of the national environment and New Hampshire's stronger Democratic lean will be the biggest challenges for them.

Yes, 54-46 Republican senate would not be out of the question, but neither is a 52-48 Democratic one.  Those are the reasonable ceilings for both sides.  Given the number of possible outcomes, Republicans would have a slight advantage here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Those ratings actually look too favourable to Democrats. If 2022 is a normal midterm so either a wave or close to it, then I doubt Republicans have much trouble picking up the Senate. They could run the table and get 54, but Georgia's relentless trend regardless of the national environment and New Hampshire's stronger Democratic lean will be the biggest challenges for them.

Yes, 54-46 Republican senate would not be out of the question, but neither is a 52-48 Democratic one.  Those are the reasonable ceilings for both sides.  Given the number of possible outcomes, Republicans would have a slight advantage here.

We can get 54 seats the election is 400 days not tomorrow, OH, NC, FL are swing states, D's won them with Obama and Biden on  the ballot in 2008/12 Conservatives act like they're gonna win them FOREVER, WE THOUGHT THE SAMETHING After 2008/12

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It's easier to not argue schematics and just assume every competitive Senate/Governor race is gonna go to the GOP because B I D E N M I D T E R M

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

It's easier to not argue schematics and just assume every competitive Senate/Governor race is gonna go to the GOP because B I D E N M I D T E R M

I hate being this guy but the word you're looking for is "semantics". I agree with the sentiment though.

[wbrocks67]

Damn!

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1446490488819830786

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Damn!

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1446490488819830786

Money doesn’t buy votes. Case and point, Beto and McGrath

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's want us to Donate to Act blue and the Congress won't pass another round of Stimulus checks, and Biden Approvals are exactly where they were on Election night 48/47 abd he won 50/45 plse I am so done with contributing to Val, Ryan and Beasley they are DONE

MANDELA BARNES And FETTERMAN ARE OUR WAVE INSURANCE ABD UF WE KEEP H a 52/48 SEN  CAN ENSCR DC STATEHOOD FOR 2024/ WITH BLUE DOG Tester but we aren't sure yet

[MATTROSE94]

Rs pick up New Hampshire, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada while holding all their current seats.

I agree. Chris Sununu, Mark Brnovich, and Adam Laxalt are unbeatable candidates, whereas Herschel Walker is not the strongest candidate, but will win in the runoff election. Hawaii could get interesting as well if Tulsi Gabbard decided to run as a Trump aligned Independent. 

[wbrocks67]

Damn!

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1446490488819830786

Money doesn’t buy votes. Case and point, Beto and McGrath

Not sure in what world Beto and McGrath should be compared, since Beto nearly won...

[Brittain33]

Damn!

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1446490488819830786

Money doesn’t buy votes. Case and point, Beto and McGrath

Beto got way more votes than any Democrat in Texas history, even accounting for recent population growth.

[Pollster]

Former Democratic state Rep. Melanie Wright has announced her campaign for Indiana’s 5th District.

Wright served three terms in the state House and has a compelling electoral history:
Narrowly lost her first run in 2012 for the seat, 51/49, as Romney carried it 56/42.
Narrowly won in 2014, 51/49, against the incumbent who defeated her in 2012. 
Re-elected in 2016, 53/47, as her district voted for Trump, 64/31, and Todd Young, 56/38.
Re-elected in 2018, 51/49, as her district voted for Mike Braun, 55/39.
Defeated in 2020, 55/45, as her district voted for Trump, 65/33.

IN-05 was recently redistricted into a 57/41 Trump seat to protect Spartz. Wright will certainly face an uphill battle and is not favored, but is probably the best possible D recruit for the seat.