Harris: Biden +12

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden 56 (+3)
Trump 44 (-3)

https://t.co/z2kMqCx95x?amp=1

[wbrocks67]

Another poll that has been more bullish on Trump in the past now showing a big Biden lead.

[wbrocks67]

Favorables:
Barack Obama: 59/35 (+24)
Joe Biden: 47/44 (+3)
Donald Trump: 39/56 (-17)
Hillary Clinton: 37/56 (-19)

[pppolitics]

no undecided?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Trump's approval the lowest it has been since the very start of 2018, just after the end of the tax law fight, 43-57.

Right track/wrong track numbers are the worst they have been his entire presidency, 27/64.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sampling period: June 17-18, 2020

Among 92% of 1886 registered voters who are very or somewhat likely to vote (the sample used was LVs and the only two other options were very unlikely or somewhat unlikely, so I assume it was the other two categories alone which were used here), which is ~1735 likely voters.

There are also some numbers for generic D vs Trump (bizarrely, he leads them for the first time), including numbers for previous polls from Harvard CAPS/Harris which were previously unreleased as far as I'm aware:

December 2019, registered voters (sample size, sampling dates unknown):
D 43%
Trump 39%
Independent/other candidate 8%
Undecided/other option 10%

April 14-16, 2020, 2394 registered voters
D 44%
Trump 40%
Independent/other candidate 7%
Undecided/other option 9%

May 13-14, 2020, 1708 likely voters
D 47%
Trump 43%
Independent/other candidate 6%
Undecided/other option 5%

June 17-18, 2020, same Likely voter sample (~1735)
Trump 46%
D 42%
Independent/other candidate 8%
Undecided/other option 6%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Favorables:
Barack Obama: 59/35 (+24)
Joe Biden: 47/44 (+3)
Donald Trump: 39/56 (-17)
Hillary Clinton: 37/56 (-19)

Unsurprisingly, “Obamagate” was a bust. Another reason why making this election about President Obama is the dumbest thing Trump can do.

[Alben Barkley]

Favorables:
Joe Biden: 47/44 (+3)
Hillary Clinton: 37/56 (-19)

This is the difference between 2016 and 2020 in a nutshell.

I'm not sure Hillary EVER had a positive approval rating during the election. Pretty sure she didn't in fact.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump cannot win on 45 million unemployment, and this duplicates the Fox poll. This is a Harris poll.

[Progressive Pessimist]

56% for Biden! *Spit take*.

But according to Trafalgar, Biden is apparently leading by this much nationally yet somehow only barely Michigan!

Favorables:
Barack Obama: 59/35 (+24)
Joe Biden: 47/44 (+3)
Donald Trump: 39/56 (-17)
Hillary Clinton: 37/56 (-19)

Unsurprisingly, “Obamagate” did nothing. Another reason why making this election about President Obama is the dumbest thing Trump can do.

It's such bulls*** that Clinton is less popular than Trump though. The poor woman really doesn't deserve that. Our populace is so stupid. If she was President right now things would not be as f***ed as they are. I am adamant about that, yet too many Americans just can't help but have knee-jerk hatred towards her.

[Alben Barkley]

56% for Biden! *Spit take*.

But according to Trafalgar, Biden is apparently leading by this much nationally yet somehow only barely Michigan!

Favorables:
Barack Obama: 59/35 (+24)
Joe Biden: 47/44 (+3)
Donald Trump: 39/56 (-17)
Hillary Clinton: 37/56 (-19)

Unsurprisingly, “Obamagate” did nothing. Another reason why making this election about President Obama is the dumbest thing Trump can do.

It's such bulls*** that Clinton is less popular than Trump though. The poor woman really doesn't deserve that. Our populace is so stupid. If she was President right now things would not be as f***ed as they are. I am adamant about that, yet too many Americans just can't help but have knee-jerk hatred towards her.

I think the reason she's so low now is a combination of Republicans hating Hilllary (obviously) and a lot of Democrats blaming her for losing to Trump.

But yeah I agree, it's dumb but it is what it is. We have a much more popular candidate this time, whether that's fair or not, and that could make all the difference.

Also, if she was president right now, I think she would have handled COVID much better and would have seen a bigger bump in her approval ratings like other world leaders did. So she'd probably be much more popular and may be on pace to winning re-election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Where are all the R naysayers from yesterday when they said Trump was coming back due to his rally and Cornyn was gonna win TX by double digits and said that it was gonna be a 51/49 R Senate. Dems are still on track for a filibuster proof majority Senate just like they did in 2008, under the duplicate Senate map.

[libertpaulian]

Cross-tabs would have been nice...

[NOVA Green]

56% for Biden! *Spit take*.

But according to Trafalgar, Biden is apparently leading by this much nationally yet somehow only barely Michigan!

Favorables:
Barack Obama: 59/35 (+24)
Joe Biden: 47/44 (+3)
Donald Trump: 39/56 (-17)
Hillary Clinton: 37/56 (-19)

Unsurprisingly, “Obamagate” did nothing. Another reason why making this election about President Obama is the dumbest thing Trump can do.

It's such bulls*** that Clinton is less popular than Trump though. The poor woman really doesn't deserve that. Our populace is so stupid. If she was President right now things would not be as f***ed as they are. I am adamant about that, yet too many Americans just can't help but have knee-jerk hatred towards her.

Ummm.... HRC is unpopular among many Democrats and Democratic Leaning Indies and has been since the 2008 Primary where she failed to make a decent argument as someone viewed as a Party Leader, for her vote in support of the Iraq War....

Many of us disaffected DEM and DEM leaners voted for her in 2016 over Trump, but were not passionate about our votes, and we had many friends and family members that voted LBT or GRN or even wrote in Sanders in "safe DEM PRES States"....

It is true that HRC's historical legacy and contributions will likely be reevaluated before too long, and certainly had she won the EC and Presidency in 2016 and had some positive changes would likely have much higher FAV numbers than currently.

Still, is difficult to have high FAVs when virtually all Republicans despised her, True Indie Voters were never sold on her, not to mention many Democrats who felt that we would have won 2016 with a different candidate....

Just sayin'..... not as a hater but as a realist.

[NOVA Green]

THESE.NUMBERS.ARE.DEVESTATING

61% "Dislike Trump Personally"

Now.... (55-44) say Trump would do better at "Fixing the Economy".

Biden wins (56-44) on handling the COVID epidemic....

58% Racism is Systematic and Pervasive, including a systematic majority of Anglo-Americans.....

[2016]

Where are all the R naysayers from yesterday when they said Trump was coming back due to his rally and Cornyn was gonna win TX by double digits and said that it was gonna be a 51/49 R Senate. Dems are still on track for a filibuster proof majority Senate just like they did in 2008, under the duplicate Senate map.

You're completely crazy! Democrats are not going to win 15 Senate Seats. The most likely scenario should they take the Senate is between 51-55 Seats and that's only happening if they will all their targetted Seats and Republicans win nothing:

They would need to win:
Arizona
Colorado
Georgia - A (Perdue)
Georgia - B (Special)
Iowa
Kansas
Maine
Montana
North Carolina

McConnell (KY), Graham (SC) and Cornyn (TX) are almost certainly going to win Re-Election. Also Republicans are going to hold Kansas if Roger Marshall is their Nominee.

So, Democrats could be at the lower end (51) if they win AZ, CO, ME, MT and NC or at the higher end if they win all 9. Doug Jones is a GONER.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was referring to Old School R  and alot of Rs on this site that think that Bullock and Bollier and Greenfield have no chance, they absolutely have a chance in this environment,  and crucial to getting 53 seats that are needed to bypass Sinema and Manchin on the legislative filibuster. Graham can indeed lose

3 to 7 seats is in the realm of possibility

[Alben Barkley]

56% for Biden! *Spit take*.

But according to Trafalgar, Biden is apparently leading by this much nationally yet somehow only barely Michigan!

Favorables:
Barack Obama: 59/35 (+24)
Joe Biden: 47/44 (+3)
Donald Trump: 39/56 (-17)
Hillary Clinton: 37/56 (-19)

Unsurprisingly, “Obamagate” did nothing. Another reason why making this election about President Obama is the dumbest thing Trump can do.

It's such bulls*** that Clinton is less popular than Trump though. The poor woman really doesn't deserve that. Our populace is so stupid. If she was President right now things would not be as f***ed as they are. I am adamant about that, yet too many Americans just can't help but have knee-jerk hatred towards her.

Ummm.... HRC is unpopular among many Democrats and Democratic Leaning Indies and has been since the 2008 Primary where she failed to make a decent argument as someone viewed as a Party Leader, for her vote in support of the Iraq War....

Many of us disaffected DEM and DEM leaners voted for her in 2016 over Trump, but were not passionate about our votes, and we had many friends and family members that voted LBT or GRN or even wrote in Sanders in "safe DEM PRES States"....

It is true that HRC's historical legacy and contributions will likely be reevaluated before too long, and certainly had she won the EC and Presidency in 2016 and had some positive changes would likely have much higher FAV numbers than currently.

Still, is difficult to have high FAVs when virtually all Republicans despised her, True Indie Voters were never sold on her, not to mention many Democrats who felt that we would have won 2016 with a different candidate....

Just sayin'..... not as a hater but as a realist.

Yet Biden voted exactly the same way and doesn't seem to get 10% as much hate for it. Didn't in 2008, doesn't now. Oh and Kerry voted for it too, yet that didn't seem to be as much of an issue when he became "party leader" in 2004.

There has been a constant double standard applied to Hillary over pretty much everything compared to other politicians, even those with very similar views and records. Take the 90s crime bill for instance: She didn't even vote for it (couldn't as First Lady), yet was somehow portrayed as a racist over it by Bernie supporters even though BERNIE ACTUALLY VOTED FOR THE BILL.

It still baffles me. And you can't even just say it's all sexism (though that undoubtedly plays a big role), because other female politicians are more popular. You can't say it's her being a Clinton, because Bill was and is more popular (somehow she managed to even get the blame for not leaving him over the Lewinsky scandal more than he did for being the cheater).

I used to think it was because people hated her ambition as she only seemed to be unpopular while running for office, but she was pretty popular as Secretary of State. But now with these numbers, even that's not a great explanation anymore.

There is something very particular about Hillary that causes people to have this irrational, seething hatred for her that frankly frightens and disturbs me. I do not understand it at all and don't think I want to.

Bill Maher shares my bafflement by the way, said it's like hating your real estate lady.

[Alben Barkley]

If you don't understand it, you can't feel confident that parts of it won't manifest again in a candidate. If you don't know how to recognise something like that, how can you feel sure in your primary vote, assuming you prioritise the nomination of someone who can win a GE?

Just because I can't personally relate to how others feel like that doesn't mean I can't recognize who is more likely to incite such a response. Clearly Biden is nothing like Hillary and, as we see in these numbers, is much more popular. Regardless of whatever it is precisely that makes people hate her so uniquely passionately, Biden clearly doesn't have it. Different sex, different personality, different public perception. Doesn't have a 30 year history of being relentlessly bashed by right-wing media and conspiracy theorists either.

And besides, what's that got to do with my primary vote anyway? Was I supposed to vote for Bernie, a candidate less popular than Biden who polled worse against Trump (who by the way clearly wanted to run against him) and whose views I am not as aligned with nor do I personally like as much? Just on the theoretical possibility that my instincts are always wrong and that the people will actually turn out to love him much more even though there's no evidence of this?

What's your point?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think it's fairly reasonable, but Biden is going to get less than 56% of the vote since that is 1984 style blowout which isn't happen. Trump at 44% means he has to gain around 3-4% of support in order to win.

[Buzz]

Lmao at the Hillary Clinton disapproval

[NOVA Green]

56% for Biden! *Spit take*.

But according to Trafalgar, Biden is apparently leading by this much nationally yet somehow only barely Michigan!

Favorables:
Barack Obama: 59/35 (+24)
Joe Biden: 47/44 (+3)
Donald Trump: 39/56 (-17)
Hillary Clinton: 37/56 (-19)

Unsurprisingly, “Obamagate” did nothing. Another reason why making this election about President Obama is the dumbest thing Trump can do.

It's such bulls*** that Clinton is less popular than Trump though. The poor woman really doesn't deserve that. Our populace is so stupid. If she was President right now things would not be as f***ed as they are. I am adamant about that, yet too many Americans just can't help but have knee-jerk hatred towards her.

Ummm.... HRC is unpopular among many Democrats and Democratic Leaning Indies and has been since the 2008 Primary where she failed to make a decent argument as someone viewed as a Party Leader, for her vote in support of the Iraq War....

Many of us disaffected DEM and DEM leaners voted for her in 2016 over Trump, but were not passionate about our votes, and we had many friends and family members that voted LBT or GRN or even wrote in Sanders in "safe DEM PRES States"....

It is true that HRC's historical legacy and contributions will likely be reevaluated before too long, and certainly had she won the EC and Presidency in 2016 and had some positive changes would likely have much higher FAV numbers than currently.

Still, is difficult to have high FAVs when virtually all Republicans despised her, True Indie Voters were never sold on her, not to mention many Democrats who felt that we would have won 2016 with a different candidate....

Just sayin'..... not as a hater but as a realist.

Yet Biden voted exactly the same way and doesn't seem to get 10% as much hate for it. Didn't in 2008, doesn't now. Oh and Kerry voted for it too, yet that didn't seem to be as much of an issue when he became "party leader" in 2004.

There has been a constant double standard applied to Hillary over pretty much everything compared to other politicians, even those with very similar views and records. Take the 90s crime bill for instance: She didn't even vote for it (couldn't as First Lady), yet was somehow portrayed as a racist over it by Bernie supporters even though BERNIE ACTUALLY VOTED FOR THE BILL.

It still baffles me. And you can't even just say it's all sexism (though that undoubtedly plays a big role), because other female politicians are more popular. You can't say it's her being a Clinton, because Bill was and is more popular (somehow she managed to even get the blame for not leaving him over the Lewinsky scandal more than he did for being the cheater).

I used to think it was because people hated her ambition as she only seemed to be unpopular while running for office, but she was pretty popular as Secretary of State. But now with these numbers, even that's not a great explanation anymore.

There is something very particular about Hillary that causes people to have this irrational, seething hatred for her that frankly frightens and disturbs me. I do not understand it at all and don't think I want to.

Bill Maher shares my bafflement by the way, said it's like hating your real estate lady.

At the verge of getting off topic, in what is after all a 2020 PRES Election Polling Thread (And not a popularity beauty contest)...

1.) Many Americans perceive Joe Biden within the context of being Barack Obama's Vice-President, whereas HRC was not viewed in such a manner.

2.) Joe Biden has essentially managed to overcome many of the previous divisions within the Democratic Party and DEM Leaning Independents, partially because of a bit of fatigue, partially because the current Republican President in the White House, where items such as who voted which way on the Iraq War, Trade Policies, "Police Reform Bills", LGBTQ Equality, etc... starts to become an item where why bother fighting within the different wings of the party, when there is so much more to come.

3.) Biden, possibly because of his Generation, partially because of his association with Obama, and possibly because of his character and a "safe bet", has somehow been able to build a coalition which currently includes a majority of Seniors, decent chunks of White Evangelical/Catholic Voters, WWC Blue Collar Ethnics in Northern & Midwestern States, not to mention African-American voters of all ages and all regions, Millennial Voters (Including a significant number of Latino-Americans), and even Working-Class White Women in odd places...

4.) It is entirely plausible that the current 2020 Biden Coalition does not hold until November.... entirely possible that lower than expected of DEM based turnout once again sinks the EC, it is perhaps even plausible that '08/'12 Obama>Trump Voters might follow their Führer once again....

5.) Call me a bit skeptical looking at the various recent spate of polls we have seen.... still Biden needs to dust off the old "Brass Knuckles" from Blue Collar NE PA and hit Trump hard on bread & butter issues, and let go of the whole "Trump Circus Show" which we have been witnessing for the past 3+ Yrs.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Favorables:
Joe Biden: 47/44 (+3)
Hillary Clinton: 37/56 (-19)

This is why the election is essentially already over.
If you are still doubting this, what exactly is Trump’s line of attack the lowers Biden’s favs by 20 points?

[Storr]

Lmao at the Hillary Clinton disapproval

Nobody loves a loser. (Especially when they "should have" won.)

[ProudModerate2]

Yes!
Another double-digit lead.
Biden is doing awesome.