7 days till votes are counted in the Georgia Primary, some contests snap into crisp focus, others remain blurry, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WXIA-TV, the Gannett-owned NBC affiliate in Atlanta.
In the
Republican Primary for U.S. Senator, David Perdue leads with 27%, and has led in every SurveyUSA tracking poll to date. Perdue is almost certain not to receive the 50% of the vote needed to avoid a 07/22/14 runoff, so who finishes second in the 05/20/14 primary is critical: Jack Kingston is at 19% among all likely voters, down a nominal 1 point from 2 weeks ago. Karen Handel is at 16% today among all likely voters, up a nominal 1 percentage point. When you examine just the small subset of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (aka: the Early Voters, which is sometimes a measure of voter enthusiasm, campaign organization, or both), Phil Gingrey has the most energized base, with 19% of the votes already cast going to him, almost twice his overall forecast vote total of 10%. Handel has only 11% of the votes already cast; her voters appear more willing to wait and vote on Primary Day. Perdue has 28% of the votes already cast, Kingston has 19%. Which of these 4 candidates advances will depend on a mixture of enthusiasm, organization and turnout. The U.S. Senate Seat is open; Saxby Chambliss is retiring.
In the
Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator, Michelle Nunn decisively defeats 3 opponents. Nunn has 59% today. Her opponents, combined, have 22%. Nunn will face in November the winner of the Republican Senate Runoff on 07/22/14.
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Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 state of GA adults 05/08/14 through 05/12/14. Of the adults, 1,738 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 634 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Republican Primary, 549 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Democratic Primary. 1,380 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. As with all SurveyUSA election tracking polls, click on the "Triangle T" where ever you see one, to reveal the Interactive Tracking Graphs for that contest.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=94a38a32-4657-4960-bc56-8656b955f99b
