State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Frodo]

Based on retirements alone, how many seats can Republicans expect to gain in the Louisiana legislature in 2019?  

Here are the current numbers:

Louisiana House (105 total members)

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 3
vacancies: 3

Louisiana Senate (39 total members)

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

[Frodo]

Based on retirements alone, how many seats can Republicans expect to gain in the Louisiana legislature in 2019?  

Here are the current numbers:

Louisiana House (105 total members)

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 3
vacancies: 3

Louisiana Senate (39 total members)

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

IMHO - relatively few in state Senate. Out of 5 districts, represented by white Democrats (districts represented by Blacks are safe) only 2 look really vulnerable: 28th of LaFleur in Acadiana (very likely) and 38th of Milkovich (with his "nonstandard" voting record - more or less centrist on economy and extremely conservative on social issues). 2 of 3 others are majority-Black, and Gary Smith is strong enough to win.

Much worse in state House. This fall Democrats already lost 10th and 33rd. and next year they are likely to lose heavily in Acadiana and vicinity, where legislators elected in pre-Obama period will be term-limited. By my count - 28th, 30th, 32th, 38th and 54th are, most likely, gone (despite old Democratic tradition), and 18th (not in Acadiana) and 50th - are possible (but both are about 38% Black, so - less likely).

P.S. Louisiana and Mississippi (first - more quickly, as there are term limits) slowly go the way of Alabama (where only 1 centrist white Democrat in state Senate, and 1 white progressive in House (both from majority-Black districts) remain).  Everything else is polarized...

Isn't there a Republican seat that will be open in the Senate (Alario) in the NOLA area that even Hillary almost carried?  I'd think Dems would have a good shot at picking that up.

There is. And Alario is a party-switcher himself (more or less centrist Democrat in the past, moderate-conservative Republican now). But, barring something unpredictable, that's, probably, the only state Senate seat Democrats may gain. Though it's too early to say with confidence..

What do we know about the three independents and the three current vacancies in the House?  Next year, would they likely go Republican?  Because if so, that would mean Republicans could win up to (if we include the 9 or 10 you already mentioned) 75 seats at the end of the 2019 elections once all the votes are counted.  

[Frodo]

Based on retirements alone, how many seats can Republicans expect to gain in the Louisiana legislature in 2019?  

Here are the current numbers:

Louisiana House (105 total members)

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 3
vacancies: 3

Louisiana Senate (39 total members)

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

IMHO - relatively few in state Senate. Out of 5 districts, represented by white Democrats (districts represented by Blacks are safe) only 2 look really vulnerable: 28th of LaFleur in Acadiana (very likely) and 38th of Milkovich (with his "nonstandard" voting record - more or less centrist on economy and extremely conservative on social issues). 2 of 3 others are majority-Black, and Gary Smith is strong enough to win.

Much worse in state House. This fall Democrats already lost 10th and 33rd. and next year they are likely to lose heavily in Acadiana and vicinity, where legislators elected in pre-Obama period will be term-limited. By my count - 28th, 30th, 32th, 38th and 54th are, most likely, gone (despite old Democratic tradition), and 18th (not in Acadiana) and 50th - are possible (but both are about 38% Black, so - less likely).

P.S. Louisiana and Mississippi (first - more quickly, as there are term limits) slowly go the way of Alabama (where only 1 centrist white Democrat in state Senate, and 1 white progressive in House (both from majority-Black districts) remain).  Everything else is polarized...

Isn't there a Republican seat that will be open in the Senate (Alario) in the NOLA area that even Hillary almost carried?  I'd think Dems would have a good shot at picking that up.

There is. And Alario is a party-switcher himself (more or less centrist Democrat in the past, moderate-conservative Republican now). But, barring something unpredictable, that's, probably, the only state Senate seat Democrats may gain. Though it's too early to say with confidence..

What do we know about the three independents and the three current vacancies in the House?  Next year, would they likely go Republican?  Because if so, that would mean Republicans could win up to 75 seats at the end of the 2019 elections once all the votes are counted.  

Terry Brown is a "conservative Independent", who, nevertheless, twice beat Republican candidates. Looking at his voting record - he seems to be more of "conservative populist" type: again, more conservative on social issues, then on economy. Jerome Richard is not so far from "normal Republican", but prefers to stay Indie. He is term-limited though. Both districts (84 and 70% Trump accordingly) seem very unlikely to go Democratic. Joseph Marino - another matter. Elected unopposed from suburban (and - narrow Clinton) district, he seems to be genuine moderate, so IF he would choose - my guess is he would choose Democratic label over Republican one.

That's two districts also likely to go Republican, then.  

With the independents accounted for, how about the three vacant seats?  

[Frodo]

So in January 2020 once the legislators have been sworn in, do you think this is likely going to be the partisan makeup of the Louisiana legislature, with Republicans having a 2 to 1 majority ratio in both chambers?


Louisiana House

Republicans: 70
Democrats: 35


Louisiana Senate

Republicans: 26
Democrats: 13

[Frodo]

Sen. Frank Wagner, a prominent Virginia Beach Republican, seems to know the time is up for the Virginia Republican Party as a governing party:

Virginia Beach state senator Frank Wagner will retire, and Democrats have eyes on the seat

Wagner, who also sat on the Finance, Rules, and Rehabilitation and Social Services committees, held a crucial role as part of a select group of legislators who helped put together or amend the biennial budget every year.

With the GOP holding a 21-19 majority in the Senate over the past two years, Wagner was one of the key Republicans who warmed up to the idea of Medicaid expansion, casting his vote in favor of giving more Virginians access to the federal health insurance in 2018.

Two Virginia Beach Democrats, Susan Hippen and Kim Howard, have launched campaigns for Wagner’s seat in November.