Australian Election Results Thread

[ag]

Last update before going to bed:

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 7 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 94 (50.06%) - 95.45% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 268 (50.17%) - 94.95% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

[Democratic Hawk]

ALP is ahead in McEwen!!

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 7 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted

Apparently, the McEwen count is done!  Of course, there will still be some re-checks - and w/ this margin anything can still happen.  That's quite a photo-finish!

You have got to be kidding me.  7 votes?

Not only that but McEwen has the third largest electorate by enrolment in Australia - only the two ACT divisions, Canberra and Fraser, have larger electorates. The Liberals are to formally request a recount

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It's Australia! Postal votes can be received up to 13 days after election day, but these votes must have been posted on or before election day

Dave

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I'm quite sure that the result in McEwen is the closest victory in Australian Political history. Well that's what I heard on ABC News last night. The winning candidate used one of the worst puns ever, "I can't believe I won by 7 votes, when Kevin was running as Kevin07". Or it was something very familar to that.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm quite sure that the result in McEwen is the closest victory in Australian Political history. Well that's what I heard on ABC News last night. The winning candidate used one of the worst puns ever, "I can't believe I won by 7 votes, when Kevin was running as Kevin07". Or it was something very familar to that.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/09/2113580.htm?site=elections/federal/2007

Seemingly, the second closest. Election expert Malcome Mackerras says that, in 1919, Ballarat was won by a single vote

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm quite sure that the result in McEwen is the closest victory in Australian Political history. Well that's what I heard on ABC News last night. The winning candidate used one of the worst puns ever, "I can't believe I won by 7 votes, when Kevin was running as Kevin07". Or it was something very familar to that.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/09/2113580.htm?site=elections/federal/2007

Seemingly, the second closest. Election expert Malcome Mackerras says that, in 1919, Ballarat was won by a single vote

Dave

Except that that result wasn't allowed to stand (as Mackerras should know). O/c it's possible that this one won't either.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I'm quite sure that the result in McEwen is the closest victory in Australian Political history. Well that's what I heard on ABC News last night. The winning candidate used one of the worst puns ever, "I can't believe I won by 7 votes, when Kevin was running as Kevin07". Or it was something very familar to that.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/09/2113580.htm?site=elections/federal/2007

Seemingly, the second closest. Election expert Malcome Mackerras says that, in 1919, Ballarat was won by a single vote

Dave

In the 2002 Irish election in Limerick West the final seat was contested between two members of Fine Gael and was won by a single vote (after days and days of recounting).

Of course given the size of both division's respective electorates this is nothing in comparsion.

[ag]

New week, new updates (mostly rechecking). Flynn is getting closer and closer. So is Bowman.

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 6 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 87 (50.05%) - 95.44% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 183 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 202 (50.20%) - 92.19% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 207 (50.13%) - 94.96% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

update. Some rechecking in McEwen. ALP lead is down to 6 votes!
update2: further tightening in Flynn.
update3: minor update in Solomon

[Verily]

How is counting in McEwen finished with 96.31% counted? (Or is that turnout, as in percent of the electorate counted?)

[ag]

How is counting in McEwen finished with 96.31% counted? (Or is that turnout, as in percent of the electorate counted?)

Yes, this is turnout. The figures the report for all electorates are % of the total number of registered voters counted.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How is counting in McEwen finished with 96.31% counted? (Or is that turnout, as in percent of the electorate counted?)

That's 96.31% as a percentage of all eligible voters whose votes have been counted. Yeah.. so turnout.

[Platypus]

McEwen is down to 5 votes, and Bailey (LIB) is challenging the result.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

From what I've heard the Coalition needs a 1.5% swing or in other words 10 seats to gain Government in 2010. That's what I heard on The Insiders last Sunday. And history suggests that the Australian people don't kick out Government's after a term.

[Democratic Hawk]

As of 9:47:33 PM:

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 6 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 81 (50.05%) - 95.44% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 185 (50.11%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - DECLARED
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 212 (50.13%) - 94.96% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - DECLARED
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

[ag]

Revised (almost final) pendulum (the swing to Coalition from the previous election in brackets):

Starting from ultra-safe labor (over 20% TPP swing necessary to overturn):

1. Batman VIC 75.95% ALP (-4.63%)
2. Grayndler NSW 74.91% ALP (-3.73%)
3. Throsby NSW 73.51% ALP (-9.69%)
4. Wills VIC 72.34% ALP (-5.44%)
5. Melbourne VIC 72.19% ALP (-1.05%)
6. Gellibrand VIC 71.59% ALP (-6.64%)
7. Gorton VIC 71.44% ALP (-6.54%)
8. Scullin VIC 70.87% ALP (-6.08%)
9. Chifley NSW 70.60% ALP (-8.63%)
10. Watson NSW 70.38% ALP (-5.82%)

Quite notably, in all of these seats other than Gorton the election night ALP share was higher.

[ag]

Very safe labor (over 15% TPP swing necessary):

11. Port Adelaide SA 69.7%% (-6.84%)
12. Sydney NSW 69.43% ALP (-2.05%)
13. Calwell VIC 69.33% LP (-11.14%)
14. Fowler NSW 68.21% ALP (-4.89%)
15. Blaxland NSW 68.13% ALP (-2.90%)
16. Cunningham NSW 68.09 ALP (-6.47%)
17. Reid NSW 66.91% ALP (-4.83%)
18. Hunter NSW 65.94% ALP (-4.85%)
19. Newcastle NSW 65.92% ALP (-6.83%)
20. Denison TAS 65.63% ALP (-2.34%)
21. Lalor VIC 65.54% ALP (-6.75%)
22. Maribyrnong VIC 65.34% ALP (-5.87%)
23. Werriwa NSW 65.24% ALP (-8.30%)
24. Fraser ACT 65.09% ALP (-1.77%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Presumably Throsby has the highest primary vote for the ALP?

[ag]

Safe labor (over 10% swing necessary):

25. Shortland NSW 64.79% ALP (-5.55%)
26. Oxley QLD 64.13% ALP (-7.01%)
27. Prospect NSW 63.47% ALP (-7.07%)
28. Kingsford Smith NSW 63.04% ALP (-4.31%)
29. Hotham VIC 62.98% ALP (-5.58%)
30. Charlton NSW 62.87% ALP (-4.47%)
31. Capricornia QLD 62.65% ALP (-8.64%)
32. Griffith QLD 62.29% ALP (-3.81%)
33. Barton NSW 62.16% ALP (-4.59%)
34. Rankin QLD 61.72 ALP (-8.74%)
35. Canberra ACT 61.67 ALP (-1.76%)
36. Holt VIC 61.51% ALP (-10.00%)
37. Lingiari NT 61.17% ALP (-3.51%)
38. Banks NSW 61.09% ALP (-7.87%)

[ag]

Presumably Throsby has the highest primary vote for the ALP?

Looks like that. But there are several that are very close. Throsby has ALP primary at 64.98%, Fowler is next w/ 64.24%, and there are a few others in the 63%-64% range.

[ag]

Strong Labor (over 5% swing required):

39. Perth WA 59.04% ALP (-2.31%)
40. Fremantle WA 59.03% ALP (-1.27%)
41. Jagajaga VIC 59.02% ALP (-4.62%)
42. Corio VIC 58.93% ALP (-3.29%)
43. Richmond NSW 58.82 ALP (-7.38%)
44. Lyons TAS 58.80% ALP (-5.12%)
45. Lilley QLD 58.59% ALP (-3.19%)
46. Adelaide SA 58.50% ALP (-7.17%)
47. Bruce VIC 58.33% ALP (-4.85%)
48. Ballarat VIC 58.17 ALP (-5.94%)
49. Makin SA 57.69% ALP (-8.62%) (gain)
50. Isaacs VIC 57.64% ALP (-6.16%)
51. Lowe NSW 57.37% ALP (-4.34%)
52. Chisholm VIC 57.35% ALP (-4.70%)
53. Maquarie NSW 57.06% ALP (-6.59%)
54. Melbourne Ports VIC 56.97% ALP (-3.23%)
55. Parramatta NSW 56.89% ALP (-7.72%) (notional gain)
56. Lindsay NSW 56.80% ALP (-9.72%) (gain)
57. Brisbane QLD 56.77% ALP (-2.83%)
58. Wakefield SA 56.64% ALP (-7.31%) (gain)
59. Bendigo VIC 56.18% ALP (-5.22%)
60. Brand WA 55.62% ALP (-0.92%)
61. Hindmarsh SA 55.06% ALP (-5.00%)

[ag]

Marginal labor (between 1% and 5% swing necessary):

62. Moreton QLD 54.69% ALP (-7.52%) (gain)
63. Bonner QLD 54.55% ALP (- 5.06%) (gain)
64. Franklin TAS 54.48 ALP (+3.11%)
65. Blair QLD 54.47% ALP (-10.16%) (gain)
66. Kingston SA 54.41% ALP (-4.48%) (gain)
67. Leichhardt QLD 54.00% ALP (-14.26%) (gain)
68. Dobell NSW 53.90% ALP (-8.74%) (gain)
69. Forde QLD 53.60% ALP (-15.12%) (gain)
70. Longman QLD 53.59% ALP (-10.34%) (gain)
71. Eden-Monaro NSW 53.30% ALP (-6.57%) (gain)
72. Dawson QLD 53.18% ALP (-13.17%) (gain)
73. Page NSW 52.36% ALP (-7.83%) (gain)
74. Petrie QLD 52.04% ALP (-9.49%) (gain)
75. Deakin VIC 51.46% ALP (-6.43%) (gain)
76. Braddon TAS 51.44% ALP (-2.57%) (gain)
______________________________ ______Necessary for majority

77. Bennelong NSW 51.40% (-5.53%) ALP (gain)
78. Hasluck WA 51.18% ALP (-3.00%) (gain)
79. Bass TAS 51.00% ALP (-3.63%) (gain)

[ag]

Labor super-marginals (less than 1% swing required to overturn):

80. Corangamite VIC 50.82% ALP (-6.14%) (gain)
81. Solomon NT 50.19% ALP (-3.00%) (gain)
82. Flynn QLD 50.13% ALP (-7.85%)  (gain?)
83. Robertson NSW 50.11% ALP (-6.98) (gain?)
84. McEwen VIC 50.00% ALP (-6.42%) (gain??)

[ag]

Coalition super-marginal (less than 1% swing required)

85. Bowman QLD 50.05% LIB (-8.85%) (hold?)
86. Dickson QLD 50.13% LIB (-8.76%)
87. Swan WA 50.19% LIB (+0.27%) (gain)
88. Herbert QLD 50.22% LIB (-6.02%)
89. LaTrobe VIC 50.51% LIB (-5.32%)
90. Macarthur NSW 50.72% LIB (-10.43%)

[ag]

Coalition marginals (1% to 5% required to overturn):

91. Sturt SA 51.06% LIB (-5.74%)
92. Cowper NSW 51.23% NAT (-5.52%)
93. Striling WA 51.29% LIB (-0.75%)
94. Paterson NSW 51.51% LIB (-4.81%)
95. Hinckler QLD 51.68% NAT (-6.66%)
96. Cowan WA 51.72% LIB (+2.50) (gain)
97. Hughes NSW 52.16% LIB (-6.39%)
98. Kalgoorlie WA 52.60% LIB (-3.70%)
99. Boothby SA 52.93% LIB (-2.44%)
100. Fairfax QLD 53.01% LIB (-9.40%)
101. Fisher QLD 53.16% LIB (-7.82%)
102. Wentworth NSW 53.67% LIB (+1.16%)
103. Ryan QLD 53.77% LIB (-6.65%)
104. Dunkley VIC 54.10% LIB (-5.28%)
105. Gilmore NSW 54.12% LIB (-5.29%)
106. Hume NSW 54.16% LIB (-8.68%)
107. Grey SA 54.40% LIB (-9.42%)
108. Greenway NSW 54.49% LIB (-6.86%)
109. McMillan VIC 54.69% LIB (-0.30%)

[ag]

Strong Coalittion (over 5% requird to overturn):

110. Aston VIC 55.06% LIB (-7.17%)
111. North Sydney NSW 55.45% LIB (-4.59%)
112. Canning WA 55.63% LIB (-3.91%)
113. Forrest WA 55.83% LIB (-4.62%)
114. Gippsland VIC 55.91% NAT (-1.79%)
115. Goldstein VIC 55.97% LIB (-4.06%)
116. Casey VIC 56.00% LIB (-5.35)
117. Menzies VIC 56.10% LIB (-4.57%)
118. Cook NSW 56.53%  LIB (-6.75%)
119. Mayo SA 57.01% LIB (-6.58%)
120. Higgins VIC 57.16% LIB (-1.60%)
121. Wannon VIC 57.47% LIB (-4.90%)
122. Groom QLD 58.23% LIB (-10.58%)
123. Flinders VIC 58.24% LIB (-2.87%)
124. Wide Bay QLD 58.55% NAT (-3.66%)
125. Lyne NSW 58.57 NAT (-4.84%)
126. Tangney WA 58.63% LIB (-3.12%)
127. McPherson QLD 58.92% LIB (-5.02%)
128. Berowra NSW 58.94% LIB (-4.88%)
129. Moore WA 59.16% LIB (-1.67%)
130. Pearce WA 59.20% LIB (-3.74%)
131. Indi VIC 59.22% LIB (-7.07%)
132. Warringah NSW 59.38% LIB (-1.91%)
133. Barker SA 59.47% LIB (-10.41%)
134. Kooyong VIC 59.54% LIB (-0.04%)
135. Fadden QLD 59.80 LIB (-6.10%)

[ag]

Safe Coalition (over 10% swing required):

136. Farrer NSW 61.20% LIB (-5.43%)
137. Mitchell NSW 61.58% LIB (-9.10%)
138. Calare NSW 61.94% NAT (+0.53%)
139. Mackelar NSW 62.47% LIB (-2.99%)
140.Parkes NSW 63.02% NAT (-4.54%)
141. Bradfield NSW 63.67% LIB (-3.88%)
142. Curtin WA 63.77% LIB (-0.85%)
143. Moncrieff QLD 64.01% LIB (-5.52%)
144. Maranoa QLD 64.45% NAT (-6.60%)