Australian Election Results Thread

[ag]

Coalition marginals (1% to 5% required to overturn):

93. Striling WA 51.1% LIB
94. Paterson NSW 51.2% LIB
95. Hinckler QLD 51.2% NAT
96. Cowan WA 51.4% LIB (gain)
97. Hughest NSW 51.8% LIB
98. Kalgoorlie WA 52.2% LIB
99. Fairfax QLD 52.4% LIB
100. Fisher QLD 52.6% LIB
101. Boothby SA 52.8% LIB
102. Gilmore NSW 53.3% LIB
103. Hume NSW 53.4% LIB
104. Dunkley VIC 53.5% LIB
105. Wentworth NSW 53.6% LIB
106. Ryan QLD 53.7% LIB
107. Grey SA 54.0% LIB
108. Greenway NSW 54.6% LIB
109. McMillan VIC 54.6% LIB
110. Aston VIC 54.7% LIB

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Strong Coalittion (over 5% requird to overturn):

111. Menzies VIC 55.0% LIB
112. North Sydney NSW 55.2% LIB
113. Casey VIC 55.2% LIB
114. Canning WA 55.5% LIB
115. Gippsland VIC 55.6% NAT
116. Goldstein VIC 55.6% LIB
117. Forrest WA 55.7% LIB
118. Mayo SA 56.5% LIB
119. Higgins VIC 56.9% LIB
120. Cook NSW 57.1%  LIB
121. Wannon VIC 57.5% LIB
122. Flinders VIC 57.8% LIB
123. Groom QLD 58.0% LIB
124. Wide Bay QLD 58.2% NAT
125. Lyne NSW 58.3 NAT
126. McPherson QLD 58.6% LIB
127. Berowra NSW 58.7% LIB
128. Indi VIC 58.8% LIB
129. Tangney WA 58.8% LIB
130. Kooyong VIC 58.9% LIB
131. Moore WA 59.0% LIB
132. Barker SA 59.1% LIB
133. Pearce WA 59.1% LIB
134. Warringah NSW 59.5% LIB

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Safe Coalition (over 10% swing required):

135. Fadden QLD 60.1% LIB
136. Calare NSW 61.3% NAT
137. Farrer NSW 61.3% LIB
138. Mitchell NSW 61.4% LIB
139. Parkes NSW 62.3% NAT
140. Mackelar NSW 62.6% LIB
141. Maranoa QLD 63.0% NAT
142. Bradfield NSW 63.6% LIB
143. Curtin WA 64.3% LIB
144. Moncrieff QLD 64.4% LIB

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Very safe coalition (over 15% swing required)

145. Riverina NSW 65.7% NAT
146. O'Connor WA 66.7% LIB
147. Murray VIC 68.3% LIB

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Ultra-safe Coalition (over 20% swing required):

148. Mallee VIC 71.5% NAT

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Ultra-safe independent

149.  New England NSW 74.6% Ind. (against NAT)

Very safe independent

150. Kennedy QLD 65.5% Ind. (against ALP)

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The last outstanding poll seems to have come from Bowman (of course, potals, etc., still outstanding). The ALP lead is down to 55 votes. The ALP leadin Swan is currently 53 votes. Everywhere else the gap one way or another is, at least, 300 votes. Still, 2 real cliff-hangers out of 150 - that's a lot!

[ag]

Seems like postals put McEwen and La Trobe in the LIB column.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

95. Hinckler QLD 51.2% NAT

ALP would have taken this with a better candidate; the one they had was so bad he was almost impressive. I think Labor actually polled more votes than the Coalition in Hinkler in the Senate election.

[Platypus]

The ALP tried Hinkler in 2004 as well with a lot of resources. Obviously, they didn't win. This seat has changed a bit since 2001, but it still would be coalition in a 75-75 parliament.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The ALP tried Hinkler in 2004 as well with a lot of resources. Obviously, they didn't win. This seat has changed a bit since 2001, but it still would be coalition in a 75-75 parliament.

All true. But I think a better candidate could have added the 1.2 to the swing needed to win it.

Talking of bad candidates, I can't help but notice the big swing in Mitchell. Still a safe Liberal seat o/c.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looks like when all the votes will be tallied the Greens will come second in Melbourne. What this means for the 2PP I cannae claim to know.

[Verily]

Looks like when all the votes will be tallied the Greens will come second in Melbourne. What this means for the 2PP I cannae claim to know.

Their first second-place finish. Quite a moment for the party, I think, though obviously the ALP wins the seat easily (they have 50.8% in first-preferences).

Interestingly, ABC has the Greens leading the Libs by two votes but still has the TPP as ALP-Lib.

[ag]

The ALP advantage in Swan is now down to 17 votes!  Both La Trobe and McEwen seem to get safer for the Libs (though still very marginal, of course).

[ag]

And Bowman is now back in the Lib territory - by 27 votes!

[ag]

So, the seven closest seats, according to AEC now have the following margins:

Swan WA ALP advantage of 17 votes
Bowman QLD LIB advantage of 27 votes
Macarthur NSW LIB advantage 316 votes
Dickson QLD ALP advantage 344 votes
La Trobe VIC LIB advantage 445 votes
McEwen VIC LIB advantage 506 votes
Herbert QLD ALP advantage 608 votes

[Democratic Hawk]

Looks like when all the votes will be tallied the Greens will come second in Melbourne. What this means for the 2PP I cannae claim to know.

Their first second-place finish. Quite a moment for the party, I think, though obviously the ALP wins the seat easily (they have 50.8% in first-preferences).

Interestingly, ABC has the Greens leading the Libs by two votes but still has the TPP as ALP-Lib.

Should the Greens finish 2nd to Labor will the Liberal votes then have to be reallocated?. Seems a bit daft reallocating before all primary votes are counted

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

So, the seven closest seats, according to AEC now have the following margins:

Swan WA ALP advantage of 17 votes
Bowman QLD LIB advantage of 27 votes
Macarthur NSW LIB advantage 316 votes
Dickson QLD ALP advantage 344 votes
La Trobe VIC LIB advantage 445 votes
McEwen VIC LIB advantage 506 votes
Herbert QLD ALP advantage 608 votes

Well, it's gonna be exciting for a while yet in some districts. I must say I like the Aussie system

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Probably a daft question but is the indigenous Aboriginal vote monolithically Labor?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Ha, the UK would fit into Kalgoorlie (80,773 voters) 9.38 times . Canny bit of red on the map were it Labor

Dave

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The aboriginal vote is largely Labor, but there was a swing to the Libs in the seat of Lingiari. This is largely to do with the support of the isolated communities of the "intervention".

One thing to note, while the sitting members are getting 60/40 - 70/30 splits on the pre-poll and postal votes. The only incument seat where it's close is.... Bennelong, where the split is in favour of Howard 51/49.

[Democratic Hawk]

What's the difference between FORMAL and INFORMAL votes?

Dave

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Formal votes are votes that have been correctly cast - all boxes numbered correctly - Informal votes are those that have been cast incorrectly and will not be counted.

[Democratic Hawk]

One thing to note, while the sitting members are getting 60/40 - 70/30 splits on the pre-poll and postal votes. The only incument seat where it's close is.... Bennelong, where the split is in favour of Howard 51/49.

I notice only Gladesville West has swung in his favor on two-party preferences. Must have kissed a few more babies down that way

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Formal votes are votes that have been correctly cast - all boxes numbered correctly - Informal votes are those that have been cast incorrectly and will not be counted.

Ah, what we call 'spoilt' ballots

Dave