Australian Election Results Thread

[Democratic Hawk]

No.

But in practice it must be done before Parliament resumes next year. Probably sometime in late January/early February.

I appreciate because of just how isolated rural Australian communities are that there be a reasonable period of grace for ballots to be received and counted

I don't quite understand why it should take so long in metropolitan and coastal-fringe; in effect, the vast majority of divisions

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

As of 2.30PM:

Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 108 (50.07%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 150 (50.08%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 159 (50.10%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 160 (50.10%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 233 (50.14%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 221 (50.16%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 183 (50.18%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 655 (50.44%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 755 (50.47%)

[ag]

Swan's suddenly very close once again. Some tightening elsewhere as well (except Dickson, where the Lib lead grows) and La Trobe (which is now off the "close" list).

Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 29 (50.02%)
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 108 (50.07%)
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 142 (50.14%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 150 (50.08%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 155 (50.10%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 192 (50.12%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 237 (50.14%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 579 (50.38%)

update: Dickson is just ever so slightly more comfortable for Libs. W/ almost all votes counted, this one looks to be done.

[Democratic Hawk]

As of 9:53:57PM:

Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 90 (50.06%) - 91.6% counted
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 213 (50.11%) - 93.2% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 191 (50.12%) - 95.4% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 249 (50.14%) - 94.5% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 158 (50.16%) - 89.6% counted
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 281 (50.18%) - 92% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 356 (50.25%) - 91% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 584 (50.38%) - 91.9% counted

[Democratic Hawk]

As of 2.30PM:

Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 125 (50.08%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 89 (50.09%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 217 (50.11%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 222 (50.13%)*
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%)
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 416 (50.27%)

* Labor's Fiona McNamara has formerly conceded defeat in Dickson

[Democratic Hawk]

As of 9:48:18PM:

Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 119 (50.07%) - 93.9% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 89 (50.09%) - 91% counted
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 194 (50.10%) - 94.2% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 225 (50.14%) - 95.9% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%) - 95% counted*
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%) - 92.2% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%) - 92.4% counted*
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 430 (50.27%) - 92.5% counted

* Labor's Belinda Neal has claimed victory in Robertson
* Liberal Steve Irons has claimed victory in Swan

[Silent Hunter]

As of 9:48:18PM:

Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 119 (50.07%) - 93.9% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 89 (50.09%) - 91% counted
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 194 (50.10%) - 94.2% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 225 (50.14%) - 95.9% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%) - 95% counted*
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%) - 92.2% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%) - 92.4% counted*
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 430 (50.27%) - 92.5% counted

* Labor's Belinda Neal has claimed victory in Robertson
* Liberal Steve Irons has claimed victory in Swan

Do they not do electronic counting in Australia? I appreciate the size of the country and the remoteness, but it's got a population a third that of the UK and good transport links.

This is not Liberia. Why's it taking so long?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No, hand counting.

I actually can't understand why it's taking nearly 2 weeks to count these things, but a few things do come to mind
 
* The AEC employs a certain number of counters for a certain number of days, I would say they're down to absolute BARE minimum.
* Party scrutineers must be there, so the count is not continuous, the ballots arrive at a certain point, but they must wait until all scrutineers can arrive, since they volunteer.

So it's a combination of AEC staff, scrutineers and lengthy ballot arrival times. Australia is a long way from most places people.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm actually enjoying the suspense in these 'close' seats. I'm more optimistic for Labor in McEwen (LIB 50.04%) than I am for them in Bowman (LIB 50.07%), where Labor had been leading until yesterday

Labor has conceded Dickson and I don't see them regaining the lead in Herbert. Solomon could go down to the wire; though Labor, thus far, has increased it's lead on today's count

ABC has called Flynn for Labor

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

As of 2.30PM:

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 82 (50.04%)
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 112 (50.07%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 225 (50.14%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 186 (50.18%)
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%)*
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 439 (50.28%)

* Liberal MP Peter Lindsay has claimed victory in Herbert; Labor's George Colbran having conceded yesterday

[ag]

Things suddenly get a lot closer in Bowman:

Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 41 (50.03%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 82 (50.04%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 225 (50.14%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%)
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 194 (50.19%)
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 475 (50.30%)

[Democratic Hawk]

As of 9:56:28 PM:

Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 50 (50.03%) - 95.1% counted
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 77 (50.04%) - 95.4% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 225 (50.14%) - 95.9% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%) - 95.0% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 194 (50.19%)* - 92.2% counted
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%) - 92.2% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%) - 92.4% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 478 (50.30%) - 93.3% counted

* Labor's Damien Hale has claimed victory in Solomon; though the CLP, who are resting their hopes on Monday's full distribution of preferences, are yet to concede

It looks as though Bowman and McEwen will go down to the wire; Solomon may yet close too

Tomorrow (7th December) is the deadline by which postal votes must be received. To be valid they must have been posted on or before election day

Dave

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In morning counting LIB now ahead in Bowman by 105.

[Democratic Hawk]

Basically, there's just four seats to decide now. Two Liberal seats which are in doubt Bowman and McEwen with Labor leading in Robertson and Solomon

ABC has called Robertson and Solomon for Labor giving them 83 seats; the Coalition are on 63 but are tipped to hold Bowman and McEwen

I did some number crunching for all 8 close seats this evening and my predictions, allowing for ballots received but not counted as of yesterday :

Bowman: LIB 50.02% / ALP 48.98%

931 provisionals outstanding, most of which will be thrown out and 749 postals yet to be received. Provisionals and postals are favouring Labor but will they change the outcome?

McEwen: LIB 50.02% / ALP 48.98%

958 postals yet to be received - advantage Liberal

Robertson: ALP 50.10% / LIB 49.90%

1098 postals yet to be received, which should favour the Liberals but will they change the outcome?

Dickson: LIB 50.14% / ALP 49.86%

441 postals yet to be received - advantage Liberal

Solomon: ALP 50.19% / LIB 49.81%

390 postals yet to be received, which should favour the CLP but not enough to change the result

Flynn: ALP 50.22% / NAT 49.78%

1554 postals yet to be received, which should heavily favour the Nationals but not enough to change the result

Herbert: LIB 50.26% / ALP 49.74%

1097 postals yet to be received - advantage Liberal

Swan: LIB 50.27% / ALP 49.73%

952 postals yet to be received, which favour the Liberals; while there are 256 provisionals outstanding, which favour Labor

Bold denotes level of confidence.

In sum: Bowman and Robertson to go right down to the wire; as could McEwen but I'm, relatively, confident the Liberals will hold it unless there is a surge in support for Labor from late postals

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Afterthought: I should be confident about Labor winning Robertson. Everybody else seems to be

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

ABC has called Robertson and Solomon for Labor giving them 83 seats; the Coalition are on 63 but are tipped to hold Bowman and McEwen

ABC now predicts 84 seats for Labor and 64 for the Coalition. The Liberal lead in McEwen has narrowed to 22 votes

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

As of 3.00PM:

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 22 (50.01%)
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 102 (50.06%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 193 (50.19%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%)
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 304 (50.19%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 572 (50.36%)

[Democratic Hawk]

As of 9:18:43 PM:

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 32 (50.02%) - 95.99% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 102 (50.06%) - 95.35% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 426 (50.27%) - 94.93% counted

[ag]

The new morning brings us minor rechecking in McEwen and a few more votes counted in Bowman. Still Lib lead in both.

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 26 (50.01%) - 96.00% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 97 (50.06%) - 95.43% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 392 (50.24%) - 94.93% counted

Update: a few more votes counted in McEwen and Flynn. Both getting tighter.

[Democratic Hawk]

This is the low-down on McEwen:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/with-about-500-votes-to-go-bailey-leads-by-22/2007/12/07/1196813026887.html

The Australian Electoral Commission said last night there were a further 58 postals, 57 pre-polls and 200-300 absentees to be counted today. Another batch of 100 absentee ballots should be counted on Monday.

Now with the Libs currently ahead by 26, obviously some have already been counted but it's plausible that Labor can pull it off if absentee ballots continue to break in their favour to the degree that they have.

However, I think Labor will need a bigger break in their favour among outstanding absentee ballots to win. As of now, my guess is a Liberal win by 15 votes. If Labor pull it off, it could well be by even less

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

BTW, I've had so much fun following the Australian count that I'd like to see AV for UK parliamentary elections

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Maxine McKew currently ahead of John Howard in Bennelong with 51.37% (+0.03%)

Dave

[ag]

Flynn is rapidly getting closer: all those postals, I guess.

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 26 (50.01%) - 96.00% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 97 (50.06%) - 95.43% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 286 (50.18%) - 94.94% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

Update: continuous minor revisions to Flynn tally. Seems to be tightening further.

[ag]

ALP is ahead in McEwen!!

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 7 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 107 (50.07%) - 95.44% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 286 (50.18%) - 94.95% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

Apparently, the McEwen count is done!  Of course, there will still be some re-checks - and w/ this margin anything can still happen.  That's quite a photo-finish!

[The Mikado]

ALP is ahead in McEwen!!

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 7 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 107 (50.07%) - 95.44% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 286 (50.18%) - 94.95% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

Apparently, the McEwen count is done!  Of course, there will still be some re-checks - and w/ this margin anything can still happen.  That's quite a photo-finish!

You have got to be kidding me.  7 votes?

Oh, and it is simply insane for the vote count to continue that long in a modern democracy.