No, Oregon is very culturally liberal, which, in my opinion, I can't see the GOP winning over. All the GOP has to do is do better with Hispanics (which they can easily do, but their image is killing them right now) and they'll do lots of improvement (since the state is almost majority Hispanic). New Mexico is closer to the GOP PVI wise as well.
Current registration party enrollments in New Mexico (as of August 1, 2013) are:
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 32%
Independents: 18%
Other parties: 3% (I guess these are mainly Libertarian voters)
So even if every independent New Mexico voter would vote for the Republican presidential candidate, that candidate would just barely win the state. 
All independents voting Demcratic would end in this landslide: D 65% - R 32%
All independents voting Republican instead would squeak out a victory for the other side: R 50% - D 47%
Good point, but that assumes these turnouts are the same, which isn't totally realistic. We do know that, especially in the sun belt, republicans turn out much better than democrats. Plus not all people in the party vote the same way (there's usually about 10% that vote for the other candidate, don't ask me why).
Oregon is a vote by mail state who turns out better is meaningless everyone gets a ballot in mail and chooses to fill it out or not that's why Democrats are so resilient in Oregon there really isn't a dropoff in Democrat support in midterms.
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