Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[CumbrianLefty]

Quite a few pundits had their now familiar spiels prepared in the event of a right wing win.

Nice to see them inconvenienced for once

[CumbrianLefty]

But didn't polls also indicate the right could win ER?

If so, then it wasn't just the pundits (for whom I share your disdain)

[CumbrianLefty]

Salvini still dominates Italian politics for sure, but this is one of a few missteps recently.  Should they become a wider trend, then even given the general dreadfulness of the Italian left bets could be off.

[CumbrianLefty]

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

Well that's all totally clear

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, that's true.

I think plus 27 is the biggest pro-government swing I've seen in any "crisis" poll thus far, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, I think that advocating seat reduction as the remedy for the diseases affecting the political system is a rather simplistic and demagogic approach. That sort of fetishism involving the reduction in size of parliaments or government institutions is not exclusive to the M5S

Just cutting the numbers of seats, without any other significant "anti-corruption" measures, looks like a way to increase public disaffection with things rather than the opposite.

[CumbrianLefty]

So overall the regional elections weren't too bad for the centre-left?

[CumbrianLefty]

Quick and dirty map of the left-right topline in the provinces:



You really get a sense of De Luca, Zaia, and Toti's landslides vs. Acquaroli, Emiliano, and Giani's somewhat more modest victories, plus Tuscany's seemingly greater degree of political diversity (and self-sorting--sad!) than the other regions that voted this weekend.

So how do those results compare with previously?

[CumbrianLefty]

The election results were not "good" for the left.

Tuscany Right Increase 10.1%
Apulian  Right Increase 6.2%

Whom are you even replying to?

Someone imaginary?

[CumbrianLefty]

Italian Regional Elections September 2020 - Provinces

[margins of victory]

That's a *lot* of narrow right wing wins (or am I actually misreading it?)

[CumbrianLefty]

So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

[CumbrianLefty]

So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

Many would genuinely describe that as light blue-grey, tbf

So what is the dark grey bit in the NW corner?

[CumbrianLefty]

As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

[CumbrianLefty]

As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

Oh come on, there's a big gap between falling for Renzi's shtick and falling for BoJo's. Don't put me in the same category.

Fair point - Renzi is arguably much more of a Blair

[CumbrianLefty]

BREAKING:

Italy's government has just fallen apart.

Wasn't that a more or less permanent headline for literally decades?

[CumbrianLefty]

Seriously, when did "libertarians" get so attracted to ethnic chauvinism?

[CumbrianLefty]

OK, lets just never hear "Hitler/Nazis were left wing because they had SOCIALIST in their name" ever again from your side in return. Deal??

[CumbrianLefty]

imho, if Renzi join back to PD, this go down of 3/4%, Renzi is hated from almost 80% of italians.
Renzi party is more on 2-3%, and probably less, smaller parties are overrapresented in the polls

And its fair to say that never used to be the case, its almost as if he is Blair on steroids.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why does Italy have so many polls compared to other countries?  Is it just much cheaper somehow or is there another reason?

I wish other countries would do as much polling as the Italians pump out.

Tbf there were a *lot* of GB polls before their big debacle in the 2015 GE (in particular, YouGov used to publish a "tracker" at least 5 times a week)

[CumbrianLefty]

There's still a lot of it about, unfortunately.....

[CumbrianLefty]

Genuine LOL.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why is the right currently so insanely popular?

[CumbrianLefty]

lol

France-Italy banter has reached heights not seen since Italy signed a pact with Prussia in the 19th century.

Mussolini trying and failing to claim some of France for himself in 1940 has to be up there.