If you seriously think Obama is going to win anywhere near 200 electoral votes with unemployment at almost 15%, you are hopelessly deluded.
No matter what, Obama will carry:
-the Left Coast (CA+WA+OR) = 74 EV
-IL = 20 EV
-NY= 30 EV
-most of New England (CT+VT+RI+MA) = 25 EV
-HI = 4 EV
- MD+DE+DC= 16 EV
-He'll PROBABLY win MN = 10 EV
Thats a minimum of 179 EVs. He could get near 200.
No, he's not carrying most of those states if unemployment goes up 6%. He's already pretty close to 50-50 (or worse) approvals in WA, OR, and IL, and his approvals are hardly spectacular in MA or CT or CA or NY. The idea that he'd win Minnesota in this scenario (a state he only won by 10 points while winning nationally by nearly 7) is ridiculous. A 15% unemployment rate would be the highest since the Great Depression, would mean a U6 of 25% or 30%, and approval ratings in the low 30s. He would lose in a nearly 50-state landslide.
