Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[Logical]

Kishida might just pull the trigger for an early election after a reshuffle using the logic that things can only get worse from here.

[jaichind]

Kishida might just pull the trigger for an early election after a reshuffle using the logic that things can only get worse from here.

That would be a bad idea and be putting his own interests ahead of the LDP.  Hopefully, he does not do that.

[Dr. Cynic]

Kishida might just pull the trigger for an early election after a reshuffle using the logic that things can only get worse from here.

That would be a bad idea and be putting his own interests ahead of the LDP.  Hopefully, he does not do that.

I hope he does, because I want to see the LDP lose power. I don't think he will, though. I think he's going to hold on as long as he can and hope for a miracle to come so he can call an election before September. I do kind of admire the sheer tenacity with which he's hung onto power.

[jaichind]

Latest PR averages




PR vote average (change from 2 weeks ago)

Most of these polls are before the by-elections.  LDP-KP making gains in a reversion to the mean against opposition parties.

LDP     26.4 (+0.5)
KP        5.2 (+1.2)
DIY       1.4(---)
PNHK    0.9 (+0.7)
JRP      11.3 (-1.3)
ARFE     0.8 (-0.7)     
DPP      2.9  (-0.1)
CDP    16.4 (+0.1)
RS        4.4 (-0.4)
SDP      0.7 (-0.4)
JCP       5.1 (-0.2)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kishida might just pull the trigger for an early election after a reshuffle using the logic that things can only get worse from here.

That would be a bad idea and be putting his own interests ahead of the LDP.  Hopefully, he does not do that.

I hope he does, because I want to see the LDP lose power. I don't think he will, though. I think he's going to hold on as long as he can and hope for a miracle to come so he can call an election before September. I do kind of admire the sheer tenacity with which he's hung onto power.

Dude would have been best off if he simply called an election in 2023 when the polling looked better.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-02/biden-now-calls-ally-japan-xenophobic-along-with-china-russia

"Biden Calls Ally Japan ‘Xenophobic’ Along With China, Russia"

More of Biden making friends and influencing people.  He is not even objectively correct on Russian policy. Russia has a lot, and I think too much, immigration from Central Asia.

Will be fun to see how the Japanese media responds to this.    Kishida will do nothing since he has already tied his political fate with selling himself as someone who gets along well with Biden and pulled the USA closer to Japan.

[jaichind]

Local media outfit SunTV in 兵庫(Hyōgo) did a PR vote poll for the prefecture based on a small 100-person sample which produced very strong numbers for JRP and RS

Note that some of KP PR voters will "hideout" as LDP voters

           Poll           2022 results
LDP      25              27.66%
KP         6              12.51%       
DIY        2               3.63%
JRP       34             27.70%
ARFE      1
DPP                        4.10%
CDP       5               9.44%
RS       10               3.24%
SDP                        1.74%
JCP        2               6.32%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well it seems Kishida has some good news finally...support rate isn't crashing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kishida's Golden Week trip to Brazil and France - Sankei
Kishida gave Macron a gift in form of something glass with Dragon Ball characters. This is a nod to Macron's comments after Akira Toriyama's death.
An use of soft power if I've ever seen it.

[CascadianIndy]

New JX/Go2Senkyo poll is a doozy.

On the PR BLOC...

CDP 27.3 (+6.1)
LDP 17.8 (-5.3)
Ishin 12.2 (-0.

[Logical]

Press [X] to doubt.

[Lachi]

JX has a heavy CDP lean so yeah, 10% is wild, but it does make we wonder if we're about to see more PR polls that have the CDP like tied or very close to it from other pollsters

[Tintrlvr]

New JX/Go2Senkyo poll is a doozy.

On the PR BLOC...

CDP 27.3 (+6.1)
LDP 17.8 (-5.3)
Ishin 12.2 (-0.

That’s not the PR bloc results. That’s the phone component of the survey (on the left) and internet component (on the right). Don’t know how they would weight each to reach an overall result though clearly a bad result for the LDP/strong for the CDP either way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New JX/Go2Senkyo poll is a doozy.

On the PR BLOC...

CDP 27.3 (+6.1)
LDP 17.8 (-5.3)
Ishin 12.2 (-0.

That’s not the PR bloc results. That’s the phone component of the survey (on the left) and internet component (on the right). Don’t know how they would weight each to reach an overall result though clearly a bad result for the LDP/strong for the CDP either way.

The discrepancy between phone and Internet respondents is crazy.