2022 or 2024, which would be easier for Hogan to win?

[David Hume]

2022
pro: low dem turn-out
con: running against an incumbent

2024
pro: open seat, slightly weaker opponent
con: presidential turn-out

The fact that Hogan was the incumbent governor in 2022 but no position right now is probably not important, considering his high popularity. Sharing ballot with Trump might mean more low info R voters, but the negative effect is obvious.

[Progressive Pessimist]

2024 in the sense that he'll lose by 30 points instead of 35.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

2024. Low turnout benefits D's now

[David Hume]

2024 in the sense that he'll lose by 30 points instead of 35.

I bet it will be lower than 30

[S019]

In 2022, there was the possibility that localized factors could have shaped the race and this worked to Republicans’ favor in some deep blue states like New York. 2022 also seemed to be a break in polarization somewhat, and I don’t expect that to be repeated in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Be careful of those R nut maps it's a 303 map anyways

[Arizona Iced Tea]

2022 open seat>2024 open seat>2022 incumbent>2024 incumbent

[Schiff for Senate]

Definitely 2022. As S019 noted, while overall the year wasn't that bad for Democrats, they did underperform in some deep blue states (cough cough NY and CA). MD does have fundamental demographic differences from those two (especially CA), and Moore and Van Hollen did win in full-blown landslides, but there's the fact to consider that both of their opponents were very far-right. The amount of crossover appeal a moderate R like Hogan might have is probably underestimated here; I think Hogan would most likely hold Van Hollen (who, fwiw, isn't some deeply-entrenched, widely-popular longtime incumbent) under 60%, at least.

Meanwhile 2024 will be a presidential election year, so there'll be less liberal support for a guy like Hogan. Hogan will need to be careful about Trump, too; the more he distances himself from Trump (and Trump will definitely not embrace him by any means), the more support he might have among suburban Ds in places like Anne Arundel County - but it could come at the cost of some hardcore MAGA Republicans who refuse to vote for Hogan (and leave ballot blank or vote third-party).

[David Hume]

In 2022, there was the possibility that localized factors could have shaped the race and this worked to Republicans’ favor in some deep blue states like New York. 2022 also seemed to be a break in polarization somewhat, and I don’t expect that to be repeated in 2024.

Hogan has a unique brand and is too different from Trump. He should distance himself with Trump as much as possible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hogan won't beat Throne and if Alsobrooks gets name recognition she will win too

[Arizona Iced Tea]

In 2022, there was the possibility that localized factors could have shaped the race and this worked to Republicans’ favor in some deep blue states like New York. 2022 also seemed to be a break in polarization somewhat, and I don’t expect that to be repeated in 2024.

Hogan has a unique brand and is too different from Trump. He should distance himself with Trump as much as possible.

Trump on the ticket will help Hogan as it provides contrast between "MAGA" and "moderate". There are hundreds of thousands of suburban voters out there who are frothing at the mouth to punish Trump and also get the opportunity to vote someone like Hogan. Dems have told me that Trump on the ticket hurts the R brand downballot in the suburbs, but both 2016 and 2020 show the opposite result. Sadly, Hogan will likely lose since Maryland is just too blue to overcome but I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it to single digits against Alsobrooks mainly due to his suburban support.