US House Redistricting: New York

[Torie]

Now Nancy Pelosi chimes in, whining for a bi-partisan gerrymander. She is concerned about Hochul of course, but also guess who - Louise Slaughter!  Bring back the ear muffs!  She is not too happy about Lowey's CD either. She seems sexist by worrying just about the females, rather than the guys on Long Island, but I digress.

The Pubs should make the Dems pay a high price to get what they want. We shall see just how good the Pubs are as negotiators. When the Dems are doing this in public, you know they seem willing to open their wallets. The Pubs should empty them - or tell the Dems to keep their money. I guess we will find out soon just how hackish the Pubs in NY are.

My suggestion is to let NYJew draw the Pub CD in Brooklyn and Queens. That way everybody will be happy. 

[Torie]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

[Torie]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter?

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.

[Torie]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter?

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.

Any deal where the Dems take the hit for both seats is a rotten one and I wouldn't accept it.  Both parties losing one is the only fair way to do it.

If I'm negotiating for the Dems, I offer to redraw LI to shore up Israel and King, and honestly that might be all I'd do.  Maybe swap Ithaca for Rochester suburbs to boost Slaughter and Reed as well.  Hochul I am willing to write off, as long as Buerkle's seat gets no redder than it is right now.

That dog won't hunt at all.  It isn't Christmas, with Santa giving presents just to Dems. So if that is the Dem position (which is such a non starter that I doubt that it is if they are serious about dealing), we just go with the court map with which the Pubs are quite happy about on balance, and the Dems less happy.

[Torie]

Torie, every time you take the field for the Republicans, the Dems collapse and sign up for some terrible bargain that gives them 10% of the loaf.

Unhappiness with the court map seems to be focused on the idiosyncratic case of Slaughter losing a safe district and Pelosi making a cameo on her behalf, and some new risk to entrenched Dems on LI. Does anyone really believe the Pubbies are happy with Turner getting vaporized, Buerkle getting no support and on her way out, and Gibson unexpectedly being endangered? This map gives both parties more opportunity for growth, but make no mistake, it's not a win for the Pubbies.

I have a bias for competitive seats I admit. Other than Turner, I like the map because Buerkle faired unexpectedly well, and I like the way Long Island turned out. I really don't think King is in danger, and I think Israel and McCarthy might be. I don't think any of the other Pubs are in real danger, except in a bad election year, and Hochul is out.  I think Slaughter might be vulnerable as well, but the Pubs shouldn't spend too much money on it, because to hold the seat will be a chore absent some quite talented Pub representing it, and hey, I don't want to move to Rochester!  

Anyway, if you two guys are representing the Dems, and I the Pubs, the negotiation would be very short, before we just wrap it up, and shake hands, and go have a beer. The court map will be the map.

As to the interim post above, if the Dems were really interested in the court drawing the legislative seats (no the court won't just draw the Senate seats, while the Pubs vote for the assembly Dem gerrymander), then the parties would not have already essentially cut a deal on that, with both now negotiating against Cuomo. The parties seem to view the Congressional seats, and legislative seats, as on two separate tracks. The Dems in short, are not holding the Senate map up as hostage for getting something they like better in a Congressional map. I understand how in the abstract that is a very good plan, but the problem is that it inconveniences too many Dem incumbents short term, and we can't have that.

As I said, NY politicians of both parties tend to be self interested hacks, more than is normal for the political species.

[Torie]

Look at it this way - a reasonably competent incumbent, particularly in NY, garners you about a 3% to 5% tailwind over the partisan PVI baseline. Israel is reasonably competent, but too liberal, and in particular too high profile out front partisan,  for his new CD. McCarthy I don't consider reasonably competent. Is Gibson reasonably competent? And Slaughter isn't reasonably competent at all.

[Torie]

Is his voting record markedly different from that of, say, Spencer Bachus or John Fleming on anything significant?

He's a member of the Main Street Partnership... I also vaguely remember he and Rep. Hanna not siding with most Republicans on a couple of votes, though I can't recall which. He's definitely not a Buerkle. (And his MoV in 2010 was nearly 10%.)

correct, Gibson is a good fit for this district. Remember, this is a district who used to elect wingnut Gerald B.H. Solomon every two years.

That was the district--it's gotten more Democratic with the remap. Also, the national party has gone way to the right and exerts much more discipline than in the past on its foot soldiers.

NY-19 still has a GOP PVI, around GOP +1%.  I was working on putting up a complete matrix chart, when I got distracted by yet another gay marriage fire fight, which was and is quite a barn burner (you might want to check it out, and assess how well I (and others) performed for "the cause").  And now it's Miller Time.

[Torie]

Yes, the Pubs have had good times lately. We shall see if it holds, but 2012 particularly in NY, looks rather promising absent some surprise, in a certain Pub primary, but I digress. Anyway, here is the start of the matrix chart, which I meant to, but didn't, finish tonight. Most of the seats don't move much from what they were before, except for the ones chatted about a lot here. Lowey however is indeed possibly within range, if the Jews get angry enough at Obama maybe. Her CD moved quite a bit.

Anyway, I thought the numbers for the Pubs in Long Island were really just about as good as they could get really. I would have drained King by just about as much in any Pub gerrymander I might draw.

[Torie]

The hacks were busy this weekend, and apparently have reached agreement on legislative lines, and won't reach an agreement on Congressional lines, as was anticipated. So it looks like the court map will be the map. I suspect the appellate panel will make no changes at all to the lines. Why would they?

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[Torie]

Here is the complete matrix chart which illustrates why one party is probably considerably happier with the court map than the other party. In a Pub tsunami, the delegation would be 15 (R) - 12 (D). Of course, with the reverse, it would be 1 (R) - 26 (D).  Notice how in general things get more competitive, with the more extreme partisan colors moving towards something less so in many instances (the Buffalo seat being the spectacular exception as the earmuffs were undone). That is what happens when you unravel a prior bi-partisan gerrymander. New York should be a fun place for the next decade.

[Torie]

Numbers aside, I tend to think Tonko and Lowey are safer than Slaughter, because they're just better representatives for the most part than she is.

Yes of course. Lowey just has to worry about a Jewish rebellion against Obama, and that she might be a tad liberal for the CD now. Tonko isn't going anywhere. Action there would require both an open seat and unusual circumstances.

[Torie]

Numbers aside, I tend to think Tonko and Lowey are safer than Slaughter, because they're just better representatives for the most part than she is.

Yes of course. Lowey just has to worry about a Jewish rebellion against Obama, and that she might be a tad liberal for the CD now. Tonko isn't going anywhere. Action there would require both an open seat and unusual circumstances.

I think Lowey should be able to moderate a little if need be, at least rhetorically, and I don't really see too many Jews in this particular area turning against Obama (the Jews over in Rockland and Orange are another story, even some of the non-Orthodox ones, which is part of why I think Hayworth would likely, unfortunately, hold on under these lines absent a very strong opponent). Tonko's actually from everything I've heard about him a fantastic constituency Congressman.

Lowey has all of Rockland (packed with orthodox Jews), and she lost Jewish, secular, liberal and rich Scarsdale.

[Torie]

Numbers aside, I tend to think Tonko and Lowey are safer than Slaughter, because they're just better representatives for the most part than she is.

Yes of course. Lowey just has to worry about a Jewish rebellion against Obama, and that she might be a tad liberal for the CD now. Tonko isn't going anywhere. Action there would require both an open seat and unusual circumstances.

I think Lowey should be able to moderate a little if need be, at least rhetorically, and I don't really see too many Jews in this particular area turning against Obama (the Jews over in Rockland and Orange are another story, even some of the non-Orthodox ones, which is part of why I think Hayworth would likely, unfortunately, hold on under these lines absent a very strong opponent). Tonko's actually from everything I've heard about him a fantastic constituency Congressman.

Lowey has all of Rockland (packed with orthodox Jews), and she lost Jewish, secular, liberal and rich Scarsdale.

...she picked up Rockland? Ah. Crap. Yeah, I wouldn't call her entirely safe in that case. I thought it was still with Engel.

Honestly, I think it was probably time for Slaughter to retire last cycle. Yes, I know it was a Republican wave, but the earmuffs were D+15 and I'm sure there are Democrats in Rochester who'd be better primed to hold the district going forward now.

Here's Nita's new CD for you.

[Torie]

Color me surprised, again, that Owens and Bishop survived the tsunami of 2010 given these stats.

Lowey and Tonko are not losing to Republicans in this decade absent a scandal.

Why are you so confident Lowey? She took a big hit, with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote,  has not had to campaign much for years, and is presumably somewhat too liberal for her CD now. Sure, she is no Slaughter.  I just see it as a potentially interesting situation to watch.

[Torie]

I wonder if Hochul might try to primary Slaughter. As you can see, in her current district is a pretty good chunk of western and southwestern Monroe County (in that lime green color), which has been moved into Slaughter's CD.

[Torie]

If Slaughter lost that would be like the second strongest Obama district in the country held by a Republican even after 2010 (the only other one I know of stronger for Obama as mentioned was that guy in Illinois), and if Lowey lost that would be like the fourth or fifth probably. Neither should be too worried.

Sure, they are long shots. It just depends on the circumstances.

[Torie]

Not quite, that's a 55% Obama district.

Yes, I just deleted that line after doubling checking myself.  

[Torie]

Muon2, I got the numbers from Daily Kos (oh whatever that left wing blog is called), which were linked above somewhere. 

If you have mapped the state, Mike, and have different ones, I will use those. Knowing you, I trust you more than Daily Kos! The prior CD figures I got from Barone's Almanac, and used raw numbers, so they should be precisely accurate.

[Torie]

OK, Muon2, I revised the matrix above to match your numbers. You might delete the errant matrix from your post least it cause confusion.  

We both made errors with NY-27.  I mis-entered the Obama percentage (the McCain percentage was OK), and you used the average party numbers rather than the Obama-McCain numbers. I know because I drew NY-26 and NY-27 to find out.

Regarding the tenths thing, do you know if the DRA rounds the tenths, or just drops the 4th digit? If it just drops it, that might explain a lot of the tenths action vis a vis the Kos percentages. Unless of course even if the DRA does drop the fourth digit, you cranked the raw numbers to find out how to round properly.

[Torie]

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote

Uh... what?

The appropriate inference to draw from the text is that I assume that  there is a potential for there being a cohort of orthodox Jews, along with some other Jews perhaps, who voted for Obama last time, who won't this time in disproportionate numbers, such that with this cohort, it will not only swing to the GOP, but also trend that way.  This, despite Lowey being Jewish herself. Thank you.

[Torie]

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote

Uh... what?

The appropriate inference to draw from the text is that I assume that  there is a potential for there being a cohort of orthodox Jews, along with some other Jews perhaps, who voted for Obama last time, who won't this time in disproportionate numbers, such that with this cohort, it will not only swing to the GOP, but also trend that way.  This, despite Lowey being Jewish herself. Thank you.

Looking at FL-22 and NY-9 data from 2000 through 2004 through 2008, it appears that group already trended that way once. I don't know how much further they have to trend (given that everyone expects Obama to underperform 2008 anyway) and, more, importantly, if they're going to take it out on the senior Jewish lady (born: 1937) who is their representative and meets with them individually.

Recall that if Hillary hadn't run in 2000, Lowey was the front-runner to succeed Pat Moynihan. Nebbishes and people who are legends in their own mind only don't generally get plum nominations like that.

Yes, Lowey is certainly no nebbish, and yes, you ask the right question as to whether or not the orthodox (along with perhaps some more moderate/secular but not liberal Jews angry about Obama's mid east policies), almost in toto abandoned Obama in 2008, so whatever is left, if anything, would be merely a swing, rather than a trend.  I don't pretend to know really. By the way, "nebbish" was O'Reilly's word of the day last week, so that word may start getting more play in the gentile community. Life is beautiful.

[Torie]

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.

I guess it would be useful to take a tour de horizon of the applicable precincts wouldn't it? You might be right. Rockland seems to be polarization city.

[Torie]

In other news, Judge Mann just tweaked her map. The changes in Brooklyn are between two minority CD's, so that has no partisan meaning, and if the Finger Lakes changes move anything by even a tenth of a point, color me surprised. So now we wait until Thursday to see what the Appellate Court does - which will probably be nothing.

And indeed, no partisan change to NY-25, NY-27 and NY-23. The change to NY-25, expanding it by a tad (maybe a couple of hundred residents), into a precinct which was already split (up there near Orleans County along the lake - it took me a long time to find that tiny jut), may be a population equalizer. The other change I assume was to avoid a split of Livingston County, and keep just Ontario County split, so a bit of territory was excised in Livingston from NY-23, and NY-23 picked up about 1,500 more folks in Ontario from NY-27 instead. Judge Mann apparently is about as fond of county splits as Muon2.  

[Torie]

Life is beautiful.

Fail.

You took that out of context. Naughty!

[Torie]

Why compromise on the Senate map? Better to just bottle it up and get a court-drawn map that'll no doubt end several GOP incumbents (Obviously the Democrats will probably take it anyway even with the current gerrymandered monstrosity in the next decent Dem year but better to secure that).

BTW I actually have worked on what a court-drawn Senate map might look like, should upload it.

Because Assembly Dems don't want to be inconvenienced by a concomitant court drawn Assembly map, even if it leaves the Dems with a secure majority in the Assembly. It has nothing to do with larger Dem objectives to gain more Congressional seats down the road silly. This is New York! It doesn't work that way. Plus the partisan divide when you cut through the BS is more muted in NY. Politics is a business, and an individual career, and it is far more about looking out for number one. Ideology sucks. That is the mindset.