London Mayoral Election 2012

[mileslunn]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him.  As for the Tories federally, I actually think the odds of Cameron winning in 2015 are greater than even since despite his unpopularity now, most politicians who make big spending cuts do it early in their term and I think people understand they are needed.  If I am not mistaken, I believe Margaret Thatcher trailed in the polls quite often while in power yet won three times.  Sure the Falklands war helped no doubt, but she won her third term without that benefit.

[mileslunn]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him. 

Ok but the election is this Thursday so...

My bad, still I would think them holding them should help.  As for the Tories doing horribly at the national level, that could hurt him, but turnout is typically lower at local elections and also the strongest opposition to the Tories is in the North of the country.

[mileslunn]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him. 

Ok but the election is this Thursday so...

My bad, still I would think them holding them should help.  As for the Tories doing horribly at the national level, that could hurt him, but turnout is typically lower at local elections and also the strongest opposition to the Tories is in the North of the country.

The North and Greater London, as a little caveat there.

And Boris Johnson'll get re-elected despite being a Conservative and because Labour picked a blunder of a nominee.

Ken Livingston seems a little too left wing for London.  Although old Labour types are the nosiest they don't seem to have the support they did 30 years ago.  I also think Ed Millbrand would face a much tougher fight if a general election was called.  His lead has more to do with dissatisfaction of the current government and less to do with any support he has.  He also strikes me as too left wing for Britain.