I was expecting this, because the district results by Braun research were indicating a tight race, not a 15-point Paul advantage.
Which is funny, because the 6th District, which is the one polled, is in Eastern Kentucky where Paul has his biggest lead.
Anyway, compared to their last poll, Conway closing the gap is almost entirely turn-out based (he did pick up a few points with Democrats though). Republicans went from 42% of the electorate to 36% (which is actually below their 37% registration numbers), Democrats went from 47% to 52%, and Liberals went up from 12 to 17. Unless Conway has been able to create an unprecedented turnout operation in the last 3 weeks, this is probably an outlier.
Which, seeing as it still shows Conway losing, is not good for him. Not terrible, but the Democrats are still set to lose this one in November.
Depending on the precise definition of Eastern KY they use, Paul will probably be demolished out there. Just look at Lunsford vs. McConnell:
It doesn't actually look like that bad of a performance for McConnell, but much of that area bears similarity to West Virginia. An econo-libertarian like Paul would play very poorly out there. No matter how you cut it, I'd be surprised if he does better there than McConnell.
