NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Fuzzy Bear]

According to Axios, the Joe Biden campaign is considering Governor Cuomo for Attorney General.

https://www.axios.com/andrew-cuomo-biden-attorney-general-97fba9a0-03c5-4709-80b9-5e254c2e1e1f.html

If that happens, and Hochul becomes Governor, I'd bet that either she doesn't run, or she loses the primary to someone to her left (AOC, De Blasio, possibly Souzzi)

There would be no reason for the Democrats to not nominate Hochul.

Unfortunately, NY's Democratic party is very much a NYC affair.  NYC Democrats don't like to give a statewide nomination to a candidate who is not from NYC.  They've forced themselves to like Gillibrand, but they're not going to just allow the Governorship to go to an Upstater.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Hochul has raised $21.6 million since announcing her campaign

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced Tuesday that she has raised $21.6 million since launching her gubernatorial campaign in mid-August, a hefty haul establishing her as the front-runner in the race’s Democratic primary.

Hochul’s campaign said it is going forward with $21.3 million in the bank and touted its five-month haul as “record-setting.” The campaign also drew donations from every one of New York’s 62 counties.

The fundraising haul underscores Hochul’s edge in the primary, which pits her against New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Rep. Thomas Suozzi, who represents a district in Long Island. Already, her campaign prowess is believed to have helped nudge state Attorney General Letitia James (D) out of the race and kept New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) on the sidelines.


Williams and Suozzi have not yet publicly disclosed their fundraising, but an adviser for Suozzi told The New York Times that he had taken in more than $3 million since launching his campaign in November and transferred another $2 million from his congressional campaign account.

It's actually quite stunning how she has exceeded most expectations in terms of reelection prospects. Not just fundraising, but also polling and winning important endorsements, of which more will certainly come in. I remember well how Hochul was always expected to be a placeholder. Of course, things can change a few months down the road, but it doesn't actually look like a realistic possibility unless she does something very stupid in the meantime.

I actually don't even remember a New York governor winning election to a full term after taking over from lieutenant governor. Paterson was pushed out and Wilson lost the 1974 election. And Herbert Lehman was duly elected after Franklin Roosevelt's term expired on regular schedule.

Mario Cuomo did succeed Hugh Carey; he was Carey's 2nd Lt. Governor.

Hochul's part of the COVID-19 Lockdown Cult; an extremist on the issue, so I can't stand her.  That being said, it is pretty impressive how she's solidified her position and cleared the field, especially given that she is a Democrat not from NYC.  She's a solid favorite for election as of now.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Cuomo might really be going for governor.

I can't imagine him winning, but nothing would shock me.

I wonder if he'll get a minor party endorsement and be on the ballot in November.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Cuomo might really be going for governor.

I can't imagine him winning, but nothing would shock me.

I wonder if he'll get a minor party endorsement and be on the ballot in November.

No minor party is going to give  Cuomo their ballot line.

Would the Liberal Party do it in order to get their ballot line back?

NY's Liberal Party are all Republican hacks in disguise.  I could tell you stories about back in the day.

[Fuzzy Bear]

https://mobile.twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1550294883126099971

The attacker was probably a right winger who doesn't like that Zeldin voted to protect the right of gay marriage.

I doubt it. It was probably a lunatic of unclear political determination.

Also. I'm surprised by that particular vote from Zeldin. It's he's trying to get the Conservative Party to strip him of their ballot line.

I doubt that will happen.  The Conservative Party has been in the Patronage Mix since the 1960s, and they've endorsed more than one Republican that hasn't checked all of the boxes.  Zeldin's a conservative Republican by NY standards, and he'll get them the most votes on their ballot line.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The Times Endorses Kathy Hochul for Governor of New York

New York has a long, proud tradition of moderate, thoughtful Republicans, from George Pataki to Nelson Rockefeller. Mr. Zeldin is not part of this tradition.

Over and over again, he has demonstrated a loyalty to Trumpism over his oath to defend American democracy and the Constitution. In his campaign for governor, he makes spurious arguments about crime, and his public safety plan appears to be little more than returning to the zero-tolerance policies that have no clear connection to improving safety. Ads from Mr. Zeldin’s campaign use threatening images of Black men to stoke panic, and one features a crime that took place in California. And the plans Mr. Zeldin has laid out during this campaign lack a serious interest in the work of governing, at a time when the state needs strong, energetic leadership.

Compare that with the record of Kathy Hochul, who has used her first year in office as governor to show that she can get things done to improve the lives of New Yorkers. Ms. Hochul has set aside political drama to make progress on the things that matter most to New Yorkers — health, safety and access to good jobs and housing. For that work, she has our endorsement for a full term.

This isn't particularly surprising. Interestingly enough, The Times did support Pataki, at least for his reelections in 1998 and 2002. And before that, they obviously supported Rockenfeller. But otherwise, the newspaper has been very strongly supportive of Democratic candidates, both nationally and locally, for decades now. Most newspaper endorsements across the country this year are going to Democratic candidates. For example, in Colorado, The Denver Post has endorsed almost all of the Democrats running for statewide office. This isn't surprising, given the Republican hostility to the media.

I didn't think it was surprising, but still thought it worth posting.

The NYT is gaslighting New Yorkers, labeling them as racist for their fear of violent crime which (A) is truly going up and (B) truly affects them.

VIOLENT crime IS going up in NY and it isn't just a stat or just confined to "high crime areas".  It's made utilizing public transportation significantly more dangerous, as evidenced by increased incidents in NYC's subways.  This is relevant to suburbanites because of the high percentage of suburbanites that commute to NYC to work, taking a Railroad or public bus line (some commute as far away as Eastern Pennsylvania), and then switching to the subway to get the to their office.  It IS more dangerous in these facilities.  And it's a no-brainer as to why it's more dangerous; it's the one-two gut punch to law-abiding citizens of (A) ending cash bail and (B) reducing the funding for police while imposing all sorts of measures (e. g. ending qualified immunity) that impact their ability to maintain public safety.

The condition on the ground in NY is that (A) there are far more criminals roaming free while awaiting trial on new violent charges and (B) those criminals who are at large, pending charges or not, have no fear of enduring pretrial incarceration should they rob, beat, or even kill again.  Pretrial incarceration and significant bail are means to incapacitate criminals to keep them from committing more crimes while awaiting resolution of their charges, but New York's criminals are not incapacitated at all during their pretrial period.  They are not only free to commit new crimes, they are free to intimidate witnesses in ways that will enable them to escape a just finding of guilt at trial.  There is no protection for the average citizen, and there is even less protection for the victim of a crime from their perpetrator during the pretrial period.

Kathy Hochul did not cause this disaster, but she refuses to do anything about it.  The solution to reducing crime in NY is to reinstate cash bail and undo the foolish reforms that have handicapped police in maintaining public safety and dissuaded people from becoming police.  And it means rejecting the justifications for the arguments that brought these ill-advised policies about.  If cash bail has a "disproportionate impact" on some demographics than others, politicians ought to be honest about the fact that some demographics commit crimes, and commit VIOLENT crimes in disproportionate numbers.  Whatever "justice" is, it is not a system that increases the probability that a truly guilty person will not be punished in the name of some sort of "Equity".  And one can recognize inequities in the system (e. g. the quality of legal representation for indigent defendants, inequities in sentencing) without stripping society of its ability to Constitutionally enforce laws governing public safety.

Kathy Hochul did not cause these problems, but she refuses to undo the measures that exacerbates them.  Lee Zeldin promises to do something about this.  Ordinary New Yorkers, many of whom commute to NYC to work, and many of whom have endured crime in their suburban locales that was not present years ago (e. g. MS-13 in Brentwood, NY).  If he wins, this will be why, and it will be a just verdict on a political establishment that is unwilling to protect the entirety of its citizenry due to the Identity Politics of the day which holds it captive.  There is a price when we deal with citizens as members of Identity Groups and fail to deal with members of Identity Groups as citizens.  NY is paying that price now.  Lee Zeldin, a most imperfect man, represents a solution to that.  He's not Jacob Javits and he's not even Irving Ives, but he's not Al D'Amato and he's certainly not Kathy Hochul.  And Kathy Hochul, at this point in time, IS the problem; she has become so by choice.

[Fuzzy Bear]

New York hasn't had a real Republican Party for a while.  The NY Republican Party is very much a group of local parties.  Statewide, you are either (A) a Democrat or (B) a "not a Democrat".  The Republicans aren't the enemy of Democrats in quite the same manner that they are in more partisan states.  This viewpoint makes it easier for a Democrat to vote for a Republican or for a Republican to vote for a Democrat. 

Then, too, there are the cross-endorsements.  Lee Zeldin is the candidate of the Republican and Conservative Parties.  A candidate can cast a vote for a Democrat or Republican candidate on a minor party line.  It's a feature that lowers resistance to ticket-splitting. 

If people want to know why crime is an issue, one needs to realize that a large swath of New Yorkers commute to NYC.  They take a commuter train to Manhattan or Brooklyn, and then they usually get on a subway train to take them to their workplace.  It is on the subways and in the train stations (now loaded with homeless addicts) that commuters are the most at risk for crime.  This was the norm in the 1970s and even into the 1980s, but the Giuliani years and the Bloomberg years put an end to this.  Subways and mass transit were markedly safer.  Now, crime is back, thanks to the elimination of cash bail and the "Defund the Police!" mentality that is abating somewhat, but not until much damage was done. 

People don't just "feel" less safe; they ARE less safe.  And they know it.  I remember my 1st job out of college was in Downtown Brooklyn.  On more than one occasion we took up collections for coworkers who were mugged at the Chemical Bank in the neighborhood while cashing their paychecks.  It's total Gaslighting by Hochul to suggest that the average New Yorker can't recognize when they are in danger.  Politicians don't have to tell them, but Hochul has (for purely political reasons) let these people know that she doesn't view their safety as her problem.

The increase of Democratic support in the suburbs was fueled, in part, by the greater perception of safety commuting New Yorkers felt during the Giuliani and Bloomberg years.  Now they could vote on the basis of other issues, and there were certainly corrupt local Republicans in Nassau and Suffolk Counties.  But it's not 2013 anymore.  And the damage done by ending cash bail is unfathomable.  These are the chickens coming home to roost for Hochul.  She may or may not be re-elected, and I'm not going to bet against her.  But she's not in a great position.  If she wins by more than 4 points I will be shocked.

[Fuzzy Bear]

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellNY/status/1620268450668232705

Completely abhorrent

EDIT: It passed pretty overwhelmingly though so she might get overridden?

What are the specifics of that bill? I either couldn't find an independent report or access was denied to EU copyright laws.

Would have allowed those experiencing emotional damage due to a wrongful death to seek damages in addition to people economically damaged

It's a preposterous bill, and a gift to Trial Lawyers.

Death is part of life.  The death of a person does, indeed, impose knowable financial loss on survivors that can be calculated, and those damages should be awarded, but people DO have choices as to their emotional responses to tragedy.  Life DOES go on, and no one is promised tomorrow.  I'm not promised the rest of today, and while I'm hoping for all of it, I'm 66 years old, and in much of the world, I'd be considered past my expiration date.  I have empathy for the survivors of Wrongful Death victims, but I also believe that a good deal of the nastiness and oppressiveness of our society stems from our growing litigiousness and fear of Civil Liability.