Wow... I think we can pick this up... I'd call Tossup/ Tilt R for the Special, but Tossup Tilt/D for the General...
Also, Fuschillo was my St. Senator for many years, and represented the region, well. His endorsement could be the difference in the GOP primary.
Trying to think of the potential candidates for each side. Nassa Legislator David Denenberg of Merrick would be my guess at this point for the Dems. Suffolk Legislator DuWayne Gregory would be a strong candidate, but not sure if he would run right after being names the Presiding Officer for the Suffolk Legislature.
On the GOP side perhaps Assemblyman Joe Saladino (who was my former Assemblyman for a time period and I have met at the Massapqeua Train Station) would be a possibility. Former Massapequa Park Mayor James Altadonna Jr is one a well, but he recently took the Town Clerk position for the Town of Oyster Bay after Labriola resigned.